Spanberger seems like a very strong candidate. Considering the VA statewide swing, she should've lost in both 2020 and 2022, and while she maybe got lucky that Freitas and Vega were kind of weak campaigners, both were ultimately recruited by the national party and weren't, like, lunatics whose campaigns collapsed or anything. She also has a strong reputation of standing up to extremists in her party.
VA-07 is Biden +5, Youngkin +5. Spanberger 2022 +4. Almost matching Biden is an overperformance, but the expected result in 2022 based on statewide would be basically dead even, not her favored to lose.
