United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[The Mikado]

Convergence gets closer-
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

Would any aspiring leadership candidate be shameless enough to 'arrange' a poll to be released in the next two or three days showing Reform ahead of the Tories? I seem to recall similar tactics being used in the past.

I've rarely seen Electoral Calculus get so broken by a poll.

Put this in and:

Lab 519
LD(!) 57 (calling BS on this)
Con 32
SNP 19
PC 3
Green 2
Northern Ireland 18
Reform 0

Electoral Calculus just isn't designed for results this wild.

[The Mikado]

If you fancy another laugh, the Political Compass website has been updated to 2024. Apparently Reform are to the left of the Conservatives, George Galloway is more libertarian than Labour, and the SNP led by John Swinney and Kate Forbes is interchangeable on economics with the Greens.

www.politicalcompass.org/uk2024

A few years ago I wrote a long rant about how they don't even actually put the candidates/parties through their stupid test to determine their position on the chart, they just do it 100% on vibes.

So I tried myself by putting in Trump's and Biden's positions into the site and comparing it to their official 2020 US compass.

My takes first:

Trump:



Biden:





Their take:



They just make stuff up and don't even use their own test on these things.

[The Mikado]

How many candidates do the parties still need?