Perry isn't on the ballot in Texas? Damn. Would have been interesting to see how many votes he pulled.
That would have been. I'm guessing 25-30%, with a gutting of all the other non-Romneys save Paul. What's more surprising is that he isn't on the ballot but Bachmann and Huntsman are, given that IIRC they were both less organized than he was and both dropped out before he did.
Just to take a swing at this:
70% Barack Obama
[30% "Other"]
16% John Wolfe
8% Darcy Richardson
6% Bob Ely
Thoughts:
I consider the Obama/Other prediction to be my main prediction, and I'm going to take a bit of a wild bet here that "not Obama" does better than it should because of the publicity over the last three weeks. Basically, you may get some more disgruntled (registered) Democrats turning out to "stick it to Obama". As a subset of this, I'm going to predict that Obama loses a lot of low-population counties in the northern Panhandle and in the northeast part of the state, but that (per his results elsewhere) he gets "bailed out" in a couple of the cities (and probably along the Mexican border as well).
I'm putting the result between LA/AL and AR/KY because on the one hand, there's a significant minority population...but on the other hand, that didn't exactly help Obama avoid losing 19% in Alabama, and the "rural white" share of the party is probably a shade higher than in a few of the other states (AL leaps to mind). Likewise, the presence of a "live" primary for Senate isn't likely to help Obama...looking over the platforms, the only committed lefty in the race
seems to be Sean Hubbard (with both Yarbrough and Sadler at least clearly not doing so).
As to why I put Wolfe so high versus the others: He's the one who gave Obama the lump in AR last week, so I figure he's the one who some folks will think of when they cast their "not Obama" vote, particularly in the parts of the state bordering AR. Still...all of that is random stabbing, and I could see Wolfe vacuuming up more of the "not Obama" vote (or less of it).
For the record, if Chet Edwards or another Dem clearly of his mold were on the ballot, I'd be putting the not-Obama numbers a lot higher based on who would be likely to turn out.
GOP:
65% Mitt Romney
15% Ron Paul
10% Rick Santorum
9% Newt Gingrich
0% Jon Huntsman
0% Michele Bachmann
0% Buddy Roemer
0% John Davis
1% Uncommitted
My main difference here is that I think Paul gets a bit of a bump over his performances elsewhere from it being his homestate on the one hand, and in part of it from it being his home district. Frankly, I think he gets about a third of the vote in his district, maybe as much as 40% in parts, on a combination of the race being "over" (vs. Huckabee still being in it at that point in '08) and it being his "home base" (for comparison, he got between 10 and 15% in the counties there, and again...you still had a decently active race between McCain and Huckabee then).
Edit: Realized that I had carried over a large Huntsman share from the initial chart. Nope, I don't expect him to break asterisk territory.
