Excellent analysis. From 1980 through 2004, areas gaining population were far more Republican than those stable or losing. By 2016, that tendency had reversed itself.
I am a big fan of when in doubt, predict that the trend will continue. So I'd say in 2020, Trump's base will be even more downscale and less educated than it was in 2016; the Dems will continue to gain among the well-off, forward-thinking, and college-educated (many of whom voted 3rd party in 2016). Alas, the 2020 electoral map will be exactly the same. The kind of Democrat nominated in 2024 (and whether 2024 will be anything like 1976) probably has a lot to do with the party's 2020 fortunes, but right now demographics favors the Democrats.
That's why 2004 Georgia trends have made the state the reddest in the country, agreed.
