Northern Ireland General Discussion

[EastAnglianLefty]

That said, there's definitely a "Bible Belt" vibe in parts of NI, especially in County Antrim, and that goes beyond Paisley's church and would have provided a lot of the DUP's original base.

A majority of DUP members are also members of the Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster.

So the voter base is significantly different demographically from the membership?

Massively. The membership is also tiny. A lot of them are also estate agents, would you believe.

It's so tiny that in some constituencies there are actually fewer members than there are DUP councillors.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The census figures are somewhat misleading, because it's the proportion from a Catholic or Protestant community background - i.e. which community they were brought up in. It doesn't tell you who actually strongly identifies with that community, and who is distrustful of the other side due to a lack of interaction with them but doesn't trust the leaders of their community either. The neithers are almost certainly a plurality and are certainly increasing rapidly. The fact that it is very difficult to openly renounce your community identity means that the salience of that has been limited, but if that changes then a lot is likely to change quite quickly.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Closing it with military intervention wouldn't work for anything either, except letting people check whether they calculated their mortar trajectories correctly.

[EastAnglianLefty]

On the other side of the equation, you can see the Alliance's lack of appeal to the Nationalist community as a non-tactical vote in their weak presence west of the Bann. In the 2019 locals, they won one seat in Omagh (where the SDLP incumbents ran as independents, splitting the vote and keeping the Alliance in long enough to pick up transfers); two seats in Derry (both east of the Foyle, where the Protestant population is much higher and where there were Nationalist transfers up for grabs) and one seat in Coleraine (mostly east of the Bann anyway, and with an overwhelmingly unionist electorate.)

[EastAnglianLefty]

The strike is the bigger news, as realistically there isn't any reason for the DUP to cave now when they haven't already, and Heaton-Harris has made it fairly clear he's not going to call a new election.

We've also got snow this week, so if it gets heavier towards the end of the week then the fact the gritting lorries won't be operating could cause a fair amount of additional disruption. Forecast doesn't suggest that at the moment, but it's a possibility.

[EastAnglianLefty]

As predicted, the talks yesterday seem to have been unproductive: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-67957520

Somewhat more surprisingly, the head of the NI Civil Service has gone public with a call for Heaton-Harris to release the funds for wage increases without conditions.

Current predictions are that about 170,000 workers will be out on strike on Thursday, which is very nearly 10% of the total population and more than 20% of adults with a job.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's not just the civil servants, it's also bus and train drivers, teachers, most NHS workers and plenty of others besides - very nearly the entirety of the public sector. There's some more detail here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-67980892

This particular strike is only (for most unions) a 24-hour action, what's significant about it is that whereas previously different unions have taken action on different days, here they've co-ordinated it. Certainly given that there's no likelihood of Stormont returning imminently and the Westminster government shows no sign of willingness to take action itself, it's liable there will be further strikes over this issue, at least until such time that the union movement decides that Heaton-Harris definitely isn't budging and it's not worth their members' while to give up any more pay to send a signal that will be ignored.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The fundamental problem is that the Westminster government is shielding the DUP from the consequences of its decisions. There are lots of possible ways forward from here (some less terrible than others) but the only ones that actually change anything are the ones where decisions and consequences are linked.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Let UUP represent the Unionist bloc - the fault is on the DUP here.

Apart from the UUP not being that popular anymore, they try to mini-me the DUP rather too much.

Though some of that is encouraged by the way Holyrood functions. If it was possible to form an administration with the DUP boycotting, there would be a market for a unionist party that wants to keep things running (albeit not necessarily one larger than they now have, and certainly it wouldn't include some current UUP voters.) But as it isn't, they don't gain much from talking about compromise whilst not being able to show the benefits of it.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Hopefully this is just Wilson moaning (which is his default), and not the start of something coordinated from the hardliners:
https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1752745805256052937

In better news, it sounds like the louder brexiteers will wave it through if there's a Commons vote held on the deal - Rees-Mogg and even Bill Cash seem to be making positive noises, which suggests any rebellion would mirror the Windsor Framework vote, with a dozen Tories against, at most.

Wilson is going out of his way to say nice things about Donaldson, which wasn't a given. Taking a shot at Sunak is a free hit without much political significance, so he's taking as conciliatory a stance as could be expected.

We'll wait and see if Nigel Dodds is similarly forgiving.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Though if Little-Pengelly does run for Westminster, then the DUP will need to find a new DFM.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There are now arguments about the financial details of the deal negotiated to bring Stormont back: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68285797

On one level, it's certainly true that an across the board rise in rates wouldn't have good distributional consequences. But there's also an element to which local politicians are using that as a fig leaf because none of them want to take responsibility for raising taxes even from people who can comfortably afford it - the assumption is that there is a huge pot of money somewhere else and it would be unfair to make locals contribute to the cost of their public services.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Neither Alliance nor SF in Northern Ireland really have a housing policy worth the name, so I'm not sure where you've got that from.

Mind you, housing is less of an issue here than it is elsewhere in the British Isles - although high compared to the historical norm, the multiple of house prices to earnings is lower than in either Ireland or GB and because the population is relatively stagnant, you don't need to build as many houses to stand still. Arguably the biggest housing issue* is the quality of a lot of the housing stock, especially in poorer districts of Belfast and Derry.

*As opposed to issues around housing schemes, which are generally not about housing per se but about either antisocial behaviour or not wanting to live near themmuns.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Neither Alliance nor SF in Northern Ireland really have a housing policy worth the name, so I'm not sure where you've got that from.

Mind you, housing is less of an issue here than it is elsewhere in the British Isles - although high compared to the historical norm, the multiple of house prices to earnings is lower than in either Ireland or GB and because the population is relatively stagnant, you don't need to build as many houses to stand still. Arguably the biggest housing issue* is the quality of a lot of the housing stock, especially in poorer districts of Belfast and Derry.

*As opposed to issues around housing schemes, which are generally not about housing per se but about either antisocial behaviour or not wanting to live near themmuns.

My understanding has been that housing is a much more salient issue in the Republic right now than in the North or in the UK - is that true?

It seems that the centrality of Dublin to the economy coupled with short supply is doing a number on housing and cost of living for the ROI. Reinforces my belief that in a hypothetical united Ireland (which again I'm not fully sold on), hopefully the island can have more poles of economic activity for Cork, Belfast, Limerick, Derry etc rather than just one megalopolis of Dublin.

It's a massive issue in Dublin, which has a London-style housing crisis with much lower levels of construction and an increasing problem in places like Cork and Galway. Still plenty of cheap housing out in rural areas and small out of the way towns, but that's for the same reason that housing is cheap in southern West Virginia.

In the north Belfast has the ingredients for a housing crisis, but its ecnomy isn't yet strong enough to really turbocharge it. Elsewhere there isn't really an issue with housing costs - even where the multiple is high, the problem isn't high prices but rather very low local wages.

[EastAnglianLefty]

At this point in the electoral cycle polling of the entirety of NI (and especially first preference support) is less useful, because those aren't going to be the dynamics of the general election. It's a question of how hostile the voters moving to the TUV from the DUP are; how willing nationalist/neither/moderate unionist voters are to vote tactically to remove opponents; and to what extent that varies from one constituency to another.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The assumption this time is that Belfast North will not be competitive and Finucane will win re-election reasonably comfortably.

The DUP and TUV are standing down in North Down in favour of ex-DUP MLA Alex Easton. He's got the best shot of beating the Alliance there, but as far as we know the UUP are still running which makes Easton's job harder.

With the DUP struggling, Alliance will also be targeting Belfast East and due to the particular issues in that constituency, they may also have a shot at Lagan Valley. East Antrim and Strangford are expected to be on the edge of competitiveness, but probably not actually marginal.

The UUP's best seat outside FST is South Antrim and they will be hoping to capitalise on DUP weakness to win it back.

Outside the greater Belfast area, Jim Allister will be making his traditional run at North Antrim and has a better chance than usual (but is probably still the underdog) whilst it's possible that Foyle may be competitive this time.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The UUP having the most votes transferred (42k!) and the most votes transfer within ticket (nearly 14k!) is a great demonstration that they keep running far too many candidates and keep hurting from leakage. Every other party (especially Sinn Fein) is far more disciplined in this regard.

In the 2020 GE Sinn Féin even went too far, misjudging the mood. Under-running cost them at least 5 seats (in particular not standing anyone in Cork NW).

Yes they’ve had similar results in NI council elections before. Their strategists seem to be content with their votes electing an ally rather than running too many and risking a cutup.

And since - about half the SDLP candidates elected in the 2023 locals outside of Belfast and Derry were only elected because SF undernominated.