2024 South African general election, 29 May:

[Logical]

Worth mentioning is that access to expatriate voting has been much more accessible this election. I was able to register to vote online for the first time, and I will be able to fill out a ballot at the consulate. Previously, the process was far more cumbersome. Lots of caveats here but given that the expat community is A) overwhelmingly white/pro-DA and B) over two million people strong, it could certainly make a difference on the margins.

Do expats get a vote for Provincial Parliaments too?

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If EFF gets into power the US must immediately grant asylum to all white South Africans.

https://twitter.com/RapportSA/status/1759110564469485725?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

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I've been wondering how much of a turnout advantage White South Africans have over other races when considering the entire voting age population, not just registered voters.

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What are the benchmark results each party is aiming for and how low does the ANC have to go to dump Ramaphosa?

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I have some questions about the new seat allocation system. Are the national and regional ballots completely independent of each other? What is the method used to allocate seats at the regional  level? Does this new electoral system favor larger parties?

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Official results page up
https://results.elections.org.za/dashboards/npe/

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We will be waiting for a while.
https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1795891052726919395

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Catastrophic turnout, much of it inflicted by a once competent agency.

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10+ point swings against ANC and none of them from KZN or urban townships yet. It's going to be a slaughter.

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Northern Cape Projection:

ANC 53% (-5)
DA 21% (-5)
EFF 11% (+1)
PA 8% (new)
FF+ 3% (-)
MK 1% (new)

So far there has been very little split voting between the three different ballots.

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Eastern Cape Projection:

ANC 63% (-6)
DA 15% (-1)
EFF 10% (+2)
UDM 3% (-)


ANC limits their losses and DA actually fell back here. Xhosa ANC splinters held up their vote.

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CSIR's first national projection out and it's quite something.


ANC 42% (-15.5)
DA 22% (+1.5)
MK 13% (new)
EFF 9% (-2)
PA 2% (new)

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Western Cape Projection:

DA 55% (-1)
ANC 20% (-9)
PA 9% (new)
EFF 4% (-)
FF+ 2% (-)
MK 1% (new)

DA holds firm but PA emerges as a dangerous new challenger.

[Logical]

The results you've all been waiting for

Orania, Northern Cape

National Ballot
VF+ 65.6%
DA 22.2%
#Hope4SA 6.6% (Calvinist fundies)
ACDP 3.0%

Provincial Ballot
VF+ 76.7%
DA 13.2%
#Hope4SA 6.6% (Calvinist fundies)
ACDP 2.7%

Regional Ballot
VF+ 78.7%
DA 10.9%
#Hope4SA 6.3% (Calvinist fundies)
ACDP 3.1%

Shout out to the one person who voted for EFF on all three ballots. Was it teenage rebellion or accelerationism?

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News24 Projection for NATIONAL BALLOT:

ANC 42.3% (-15.2)
DA 21.8% (+1)
MK 13.6% (new)
EFF 9% (-1.8 )
IFP 3.5% (+0.1)
PA 2.2% (+2.2)
VF+ 1.5% (-0.9)
ActionSA 1% (new)
RISE Msanzi 0.4% (new)
BOSA 0.3% (new)

Similar to CSIR's projection.

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Mpumalanga Projection :

ANC 52% (-19)
MK 17% (new)
EFF 13% (-)
DA 12% (+2)

MK ate into ANC in Zulu speaking areas

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Gauteng Projection

ANC 35% (-15)
DA 27% (-)
EFF 12% (-3)
MK 10% (new)
ActionSA 4% (new)
FF+ 3% (-1)
PA 2% (+2)
IFP 1% (-)
Rise 1% (new)
BOSA 1% (new)

Good luck trying to form a stable government here.

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Almost an entire day and not a single official result from eThekwini (Durban) yet.

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I do wonder if South African Indians will keep voting DA in the future if a sectional party pops up; South African Indians have probably done the best since the 1990s in terms of catching up with the white population but they haven't exactly assimilated into it.

There used to be one, called Minority Front. They had one member in Parliament for some time and provincial representation in Kwazulu-Natal for even longer. Not sure what happened to them but they didn't run in 2024.

Their leader died in 2011 and the party fell apart. What remains of their machine defected to DA.

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CSIR/SABC seat projection

Regional
ANC 88
DA 43
MK 26
EFF 22
IFP 9
PA 4
ActionSA 2
VF+ 2
Al Jama 1
CCC 1
RISE 1
UDM 1

National
ANC 75
DA 43
MK 30
EFF 16
IFP 8
PA 5
VF+ 5
ActionSA 3
ACDP 3
ATM 2
BOSA 2
PAC 2
Al Jama 1
GOOD 1
CCC 1
RISE 1
UDM 1
UAT 1

Total
ANC 163 (-67)
DA 86 (+2)
MK 56 (new)
EFF 38 (-6)
IFP 17 (+3)
PA 9 (+9)
VF+ 7 (-3)
ActionSA 5 (new)
ACDP 3 (-1)
Al Jama 2 (+1)
ATM 2 (-)
PAC 2 (+1)
BOSA 2 (new)
CCC 2 (new)
RISE 2 (new)
UDM 2 (-)
GOOD 1 (-1)
UAT 1 (new)
AIC 0 (-2)
COPE 0 (-2)
NFP 0 (-2)

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ANC is trending downwards in CSIR/SABC projection model


ANC 40.5%
DA 21.7%
MK 14.6%
EFF 9.4%
PA 2.0%

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Although fully deserved, it's still sad to see the ANC squander their in-built electoral advantage, paid for in blood and tears. Had they been somewhat more competent, they could have governed South Africa for as long as PAP do in Singapore.

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Expat results - 58.8k voters - 67% turnout

DA 75.2%
EFF 4.4%
ANC 3.9%
RISE 3.5%
VF+ 3%
ActionSA 3%
BOSA 1.5%
MK 1.2%
PA 1%

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Phuthaditjhaba – (and all of old QwaQwa homeland) the city, largely coterminous with the former homeland is emblematic of the homeland “resettlement” areas/dumping grounds that were created by the Aparthrid government. That is black baSotho people were deported en masse from their previous homes sharecropping or working on what own farmed to what is now a grotesque urban sprawl in an otherwise remote area. A city built from the ground with zero jobs, resources or infrastructure. The former QwaQwa homelans is only 600 sq km but its population increased from 150k to 550k in a span of just 10 years. All of which makes it a particularly poignant example of the crimes of apartheid and resultant social problems, a population of people utterly marginalized by having been removed from all economic opportunities as well as all of their previously existing social and support structures to waste away in poverty and unemployment, and also a reminder of why the Land question is so relevant to the country today. Phuthaditjhaba is usually an ANC heartland but local issues (including the Magashule) led to a local party scoring huge in 2021 municipals, it will be interesting to see if the ANC manages to recover this lost support.

Looks like the DA have made some real inroads here in this poor, black area.

With 100% VDs reporting, Maluti-a-Phofung Municipality (Phuthaditjhaba)
ANC 52.4% (-14.1)
DA 18.6% (+8.5)
EFF 12.5% (-1.4)
MK 5.0% (new)