GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 09, 2024, 11:01:25 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread  (Read 72927 times)
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,329


« on: June 22, 2017, 11:45:00 AM »

Xingkerui,

If I'm reading what you wrote correctly I think you're saying that Dems should first get a lockdown on Obama-Trump voters before they target Romney-Clinton voters correct? If so, then I fully agree as somebody who knows the latter cohort quite well. I asked a DCCC consultant at my local campaign volunteer event about GOP rep-Clinton voters in and around Orange County and she told me clearly that those kind of voters were primarily republicans who didn't like Trump but were satisfied with their incumbent GOP reps based on the internal polling that had been done on them. Dissapointing albeit totally non-surprising answer.

I think Royce is the only vulnerable Republican in Orange County. Walters is probably fine and I think Rohrabacher is pretty safe. Issa is done but that's mostly due to San Diego County. And the reason why Royce is vulnerable and the others are not is because it has a lot of middle class areas with lots of minorities like Buena Park, La Habra and Fullerton in it. It also has places like Diamond Bar and Walnut, which are pretty wealthy, but have lots of minorities. They are more likely to swing at the congressional level than say Mission Viejo or Huntington Beach. The only city Walters needs to worry about is Irvine and Tustin, but other than that the district is full of wealthy white suburbanites. Villa Park is even in that district.....Rohrabacher has Newport Beach....Royce only has Yorba Linda and Brea to fall back on.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,329


« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2017, 11:55:22 AM »

All these special elections show a pattern that in areas where Trump cratered, Democrats are not able to do much better than Clinton did. In areas where Trump did well, or rather Clinton didn't do well, the Democrats are ascendant. It basically shows that a traditionally Democratic leaning district that voted by 10 points for Trump should be just as much of a target as districts like GA-6 where Trump barely won.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,329


« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2017, 12:15:13 PM »

All these special elections show a pattern that in areas where Trump cratered, Democrats are not able to do much better than Clinton did. In areas where Trump did well, or rather Clinton didn't do well, the Democrats are ascendant. It basically shows that a traditionally Democratic leaning district that voted by 10 points for Trump should be just as much of a target as districts like GA-6 where Trump barely won.

Democrats need to have a 435-district strategy.

I don't disagree with that, but there will always need to be priorities. And which districts are your priorities shape your general message for the electorate, which is extremely important. If the Democrats don't have a general message for the country, they will lose in 2018.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 8 queries.