Aren't the national polls pretty consistently suggesting that Obama's declines among white voters are with low-education, working-class types (especially men)?
That was the case in 2008, yes. How they'll trend in 2012 depends on a variety of factors:
1. The economy (of course).
2. How well they respond to Romney after the campaign goes into full swing.
In a 50-50 race, Obama will obviously lose this group (no Democrat has won WWC men since Carter or maybe Clinton), but he needs just enough of them to hold Ohio and Pennsylvania. His best hope is that they hate Romney enough that at least a good chunk vote for Obama.
I'm talking about results from national polls in 2012. I'm petty sure that Obama's decline among whites has been primarily concentrated among lowscale voters, not the Tories of the world?
Then again, Obama's performance in upscale, secular areas in 2008 was unprecedented, and my guess is that it would be very difficult to duplicate.
Some of those lowscale voters used to be the Tories of the world.
(Well maybe not quite, but middle class anyways.)
