How much will Trump win Macomb County, MI by in 2020?

[redeagleofficial]

Anyone saying less than 10 is either fooling themselves or clouded by their own bias (barring some unforseen megascandal/recession)

[redeagleofficial]

As for Oakland county I think Trump would lose it 56/42 against Biden and 55/43 against Warren.

Oakland is a weird one.  It is a standard typical suburban county of the type where one would expect Romney to do very well in but expect a hard swing in the other direction.  Yet, Romney was born there and the county only budged by 0.1% in 2016.  The county trended R heavily in the blue collar parts and D in the white collar parts.  Even so, the midterms showed it vote 8 points to the left of the state, similar to what it did in 2016.  I honestly don't think Trump will do better there, as black people from Detroit frequently move to places like Southfield and make it a little bluer every year, but I think the margin will be closer than people would typically expect for a county of its type.

[redeagleofficial]

Loss. Trump is a serious disappointment in Michigan, and Macomb County is one of those places in which disappointment with President Trump is enough to make a difference in Michigan in a close election in 2020. Michigan is severely polarized in its partisanship most of the time. Except perhaps for Eaton County and Livingston County, there is little of Michigan that can swing between two close elections by big margins.  Saginaw was really close, but swinging it wouldn't take much.

Do you even live here bro?