Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[The Hack Hater]

On the subject of Smith, I think he made a mistake with his earlier ads. While Oregonians may not like  high taxes very much, they also don't like personal attacks, which is why that incompetent Kulongoski won reelection because Saxton was an idiot. Of course, Merkley has reciprocated that treatment and more, but the fact that Smith was the first to launch attack ads makes me think he gave a rather negative impression of himself. At this stage, I'll call Merkley for the win, largely because Oregon has a high amount of registered Democrats and it would seem that they would have higher turnout than the Republicans in this election cycle. And the ads show the Dems have more ammunition than the Repubs in my opinion.

Also on a recentad, fearmongering
 can be a double-edges sword. If used correctly, it could plant enough doubt in the voter's minds, since there are a fair percentage of Dems who are concerned about letting the bad guys go free. On the other hand, it was an attack ad with a somewhat nasty character.