2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[MaxQue]

Tra-Di-Tion, no?

Sure, that explains why they did... I won't say well but... west of White Bay. Absolutely. But there used to be loads of mighty Liberal strongholds on the rest of the island; and no Genepool Dead Cat Bounce there, but, actually, the opposite. Just look at the 2003 election:

Less isolated, so, less traditionnal?
Proximity with "non-conformist" St. John's?

[MaxQue]

Quebec obviously needs its own thread, its party system being very different of the rest of Canada.

[MaxQue]

In addition to Quebec, I suspect Alberta will have an election next year.  Considering Redford is a Red Tory, it will be interesting to see if this benefits the WRA or are the Liberals or NDP able to come up the middle in several ridings.  Likewise she is from Calgary and much of Ed Stelmach's waning popularity was due to the fact many in Calgary didn't like the idea of having an Edmonton premier so it is not as simple as a left vs. right.  British Columbia probably won't go to the polls until 2013, but possibly sooner.  In the case of Quebec, I wouldn't be surprised if they have one next year especially considering the infighting in the Parti Quebecois and the fact neither the ADQ, QS, or the proprosed new right of centre alternative party have had enough time to gain any traction.  If Charest waits too long one of those could gain traction.

Part way through base maps for Alberta and Quebec. Quebec's looking pretty close to finished, but Alberta's still a little way's off. I figure if I can get them both pretty near done, then if either calls an election, I can focus on completing that province's maps.

Don't rush too much for Quebec, we don't know if we will use the old map or the new one (which is done, but not passed by the Assembly yet, if it's ever pass.)

[MaxQue]

Don't rush too much for Quebec, we don't know if we will use the old map or the new one (which is done, but not passed by the Assembly yet, if it's ever pass.)

Cheers for the warning!

Any link for the new map? What are the odds of the new map not passing, or of another new map having to be drawn?

Finally, the problem was solved. Well, the Assembly had voted the map. The next step was the official publication of the new limits by the Boundary Commission. The problem was than the commission needs 3 commissionners and only had 2. Opponents to the new map and tractations to not cut seats in rural areas delayed the nomination of the third one for almost a year.

Finally, he was nominated on October 5. The map should be officially publied in the Official Gazette today and it will apply 3 months after the date of publication.

Except if government decides to call Bill 19 on the floor before the law applies. That would freeze the process.
The proposed map deletes 3 rural ridings and creates 3 suburban ridngs. Bill 19 is proposing to add 3 seats in the Assembly, which means than the rural seats aren't deleted while the other seats are created.

http://www2.electionsquebec.qc.ca/lacartechange/en/index.asp
Here is the website, in English. Maps are avaliable in different formats.

[MaxQue]

Does anyone know why the NDP gained in Cut Knife? Surely it's not just because of the collapse of the Liberals.

Incumbent retired?

[MaxQue]

Does anyone want to make a riding map of Bonaventure for my blog? Or give me the links to the data/maps so I can?

When is the by-election, again?

[MaxQue]

Does anyone want to make a riding map of Bonaventure for my blog? Or give me the links to the data/maps so I can?

When is the by-election, again?

looks like december 5th

Should be able to do it, if Earl is willing to wait two weeks.
Anybody who is able to do it earlier should feel free to do it.

[MaxQue]

Sorry for the bump, but here's my Newfoundland analysis, only 6 weeks later

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/11/newfoundland-and-labrador-provincial.html

My next post will deal with the by-election. MaxQue, are you still planning on making a map?

I totally had forgot about it. I'll do it tonight.

[MaxQue]

Here it is.
Sorry Smid, I borrowed your key without asking you, but I wanted to do the map while I had time to do it, i.e. before exam weeks which are coming soon.

[MaxQue]

Thanks Smid.

It is quite ironic than the town where René Lévesque grew voted at 78% for Liberals. Well, it is a majority Anglophone-town, which explains some things. (New Carlisle)

PQ won 5 vote sections.
One in the former town of Saint-Omer (just west of Carleton).
One is in Paspébiac.
The three others are the former town of Gascons, which is very Francophone and is not very like the rest of the riding.

Government went through a series of mergers there at the beginning of the 00's. Carleton and Saint-Omer became Carleton--Saint-Omer, then Carleton-sur-Mer. Gascons and Port-Daniel became Port-Daniel--Gascons.

Doubles tirets are long tirets, in fact. Like in federal ridings names.

[MaxQue]

They should've done what the CAQ is doing and wait for the general election, not fielding by-elections but maintaining a media presence.

CAQ said they will run in the still-to-be-scheduled Argenteuil by-election.