Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[MaxQue]

Last PQ congress agreed to not hold a referendum in their first term, so I would assume their campaign wouldn't be about that.

[MaxQue]

Couillard trying to shake things up with the veil ban? Disgusting prick.

Not good numbers for QS, funny to seem them doing as well with non-Francos as with Fancos.

Rather to kill the idea, by passing a bill that doesn't work and will have to be amended and will make nationalists look bad.
Media covers it as "the public transit muslim ban", which isn't popular with most people.

[MaxQue]

I would guess Taschereau, i.e. Downtown Quebec City.

I was going to make that same guess.

Maybe it's a bit different than the rest of the region, but for whatever reason it seems Quebec City is generally more conservative than most of the province.  The ADQ and CAQ have tended to perform better here and certainly federally the Conservatives tend to often get double the support they do in the rest of the province.  Not sure the exact reason for it, but past results suggest that.  

Well, Taschereau is unlike Quebec City.
Result last time: PQ 32, Lib 30, CAQ 16, QS 15, ON 4.

I think PQ will hold it until Agnès Maltais retires, but after...

[MaxQue]

Mainstreet just out with a poll for Quebec, have one for New Brunswick and Ontario tomorrow.

CAQ - 32%
PLQ - 31%
PQ - 18% (whoa! this is disastrous for them)
QS - 15%

CAQ has a 6 point lead amongst Francophones.  A strong tightening in the Quebec City region, but CAQ surges ahead in the rest of Quebec.  PLQ well out in front in the Montreal region with the CAQ in a distant second.  So it seems the PLQ rebounding a bit, but PQ in a death spiral and CAQ gaining primarily from them.  Could this be the beginning of the end of the PQ?

If PQ ends under 20% and QS over 10%, this will relaunch the merger/alliance talks.

[MaxQue]

In Quebec, PLQ always wins big amongst Anglophones and Allophones regardless of where they are on the spectrum.  For them ideology is irrelevant, its more which party is most opposed to separatism and is least hostile to English and other language rights.  CAQ is nationalist and Francois Legault was a former separatists so even Anglophones and Allophones on the right will avoid him for this reason and likewise wants to tighten Bill 101 which is hated by Anglophones.

CAQ's strong numbers are less to do with it being right wing and more many in Quebec are sick and tired of choosing between a federalist party (who save a 18 month hiatus has been in power since 2003 so people want change) and having to choose a separatist party (PQ who many fear will have another referendum despite their promise.  Voters for the CAQ come from across the spectrum and are essentially those who want to end the going back and forth between the PQ and PLQ.

I suspect the Allophones issue with CAQ is more them wanting to cut immigration numbers by 20% (from 50000 per year to 40000).

[MaxQue]

Well, they would probably vote CAQ, in any PQ-CAQ race, no?

Perhaps, but not for sure (especially with CAQ being more nationalist than PQ on race/religion issues).

[MaxQue]

Ridings with towns with a bilingual status (excluding the ones where Anglo population fell below 10% and towns of less than 1000 inhabitants) and where PLQ might fail to make in top 2:

Iberville (Noyan and Saint-Georges-de-Clarenceville)
Groulx (Rosemère, which is in fact is the reason why this is the only North Shore riding than Liberals can win, was CAQ 31, PLQ 30, PQ 30 last time)

[MaxQue]

NPDQ already have a logo:

That's a temporary logo.

[MaxQue]

What is the CAQ's positions on various Montreal transit projects (Blue/Green Line extensions, Plante's Pink Line, REM, etc.)? Do they plan to renege on recent agreements Couillard has come to with Plante regarding these projects?

The CAQ is clearly opposed to the Pink line, as it does nothing for suburbs. They want a tramway instead. They are for the REM, but are quite upset there is no obligation of it being built in Québec. They support the Blue line extension.

[MaxQue]

Strange. Why would young people want to support that party?

Liberals are quite popular with the youth, in fact, especially since they present themselves as a "left" alternative to CAQ.

Some support it because the economy is doing quite good, some support it as the only way to block right-wing CAQ, some do because it's the only party that's not nationalist in some way.

[MaxQue]

The way I explain it to my American friends is that Quebec is kind of in its own post-xenophobic, post-racialized, post-homophobic world.

Ah, yes, Quebec - a province famously free of ethnic tensions and definitely not home to discriminatory legislation concerning language usage (for instance) or to faux-nativist political discourses...

The said discriminatory clause and the use of the notwithstanding clause has been removed in 1992.

[MaxQue]

So apparently the CAQ lead is collapsing? I haven't subscribed to the Mainstreet tracker this time, but that's what Twitter has indicated.

La Tribune website (a member of Groupe Capitale Medias, the sponsor of the polls) is saying CAQ 31.8, PLQ 28.2, PQ 19.4, QS 15.5.

[MaxQue]

No, a PQ shutout would require low double digits.

What about falling below official party status (whatever number that is)?

12 seats or 20% (no matter the number of seats, if you get 20% of votes, you're an official party).

[MaxQue]

Favourite part of the English debate: Lisee making his opening statement about how Quebec needs to be independent and French needing to be its sole language.

I guess if you aren't competing for Anglo votes you might as well own it.

I'm a bit surprised the PQ showed up to the English debate. Have they skipped English debates in the past?

It was the first English debate since the 80's.

[MaxQue]

So it looks like late deciders are breaking CAQ. Didn't someone say that the PLQ usually gets a late boost because swing voters end up put off by the PQs separatist rhetoric? If so, then that is another difference between the old days.

It's not a late boost shown in polls, it's more like them doing better in actual results than in polls. We'll only know on Monday.

[MaxQue]

I mean, on those franco numbers it seems like PLQ are going to get completely obliterated outside of Montréal/Laval/the South shore?

They could hold random ridings (like Magdalen Islands) and come in the middle in 3 and 4 way races.

[MaxQue]

Finally (?), the PQ will have 10 seats, as they gained Gaspé in a recount (went from Liberal +132 to PQ +41). Seems like a big shift, but there was various irregularities, like the infamous Box 61, who reported all its votes as Liberal, which was improbable.

Recount in Îles-de-la-Madeleine went from PQ+18 to PQ+15.

PQ asked a recount in Ungava (CAQ+44), the judge didn't rule yet on whether it will happen.

Standings are now:
CAQ 74
PLQ 29 (-3)
PQ 10 (+1)
QS 10
Ind 1 (+1, Guy Ouellette (Chomedey) having been expelled from Liberals for leaking information to PQ and CAQ)
Vacant 1 (+1, Couillard)

[MaxQue]

Finally (?), the PQ will have 10 seats, as they gained Gaspé in a recount (went from Liberal +132 to PQ +41). Seems like a big shift, but there was various irregularities, like the infamous Box 61, who reported all its votes as Liberal, which was improbable.

Recount in Îles-de-la-Madeleine went from PQ+18 to PQ+15.

PQ asked a recount in Ungava (CAQ+44), the judge didn't rule yet on whether it will happen.

Standings are now:
CAQ 74
PLQ 29 (-3)
PQ 10 (+1)
QS 10
Ind 1 (+1, Guy Ouellette (Chomedey) having been expelled from Liberals for leaking information to PQ and CAQ)
Vacant 1 (+1, Couillard)

Lol re Oullette

That's David Emerson speed for someone to leave their party.

Did the PLQ know he was leaking during the campaign? Is CAQ going to take him in or was this just career suicide? (He seems, as a CAQ MLA, about as likely as David Emerson was to win reelection regardless, though.)

The leak happened in November 2016, it was about potential corruption by a wealthy Liberal businessman. The facy he leaked got known during the last week of the campaign.

It was neither, he is a former policeman and I think he decided his mission was to fight corruption, no matter where it was.

[MaxQue]

LeDevoir has an interactive Poll-by-poll results:
https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/539627/cartographique-de-la-victoire-caquiste?fbclid=IwAR0RbPLG_JdZo9hUAP9eBf1RvJaUZesVBvULl5zCctcMISHYTjiWuDvNdxk

And election-atlas has their maps updated to:
http://www.election-atlas.ca/qc/

I was looking at Kiryas Tosh in Groulx and it has it's own poll, but unlike all the others, it has no results listed. Does anyone know why? Does it mean no one or not enough people voted?

I doubt they vote, given life there is as stringent than in Saudi Arabia. The few that did have been merged into poll 0.

[MaxQue]

Both would be possible. Voted heavily and 100% for Liberals in 2008, almost no turnout in 2012 (but heavily Liberal), heavily Liberal in 2014.

Federally, also a mix of heavy Liberal, heavy Conservative, mixed or just almost not turnout, depending on the election.