🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[MaxQue]

David Lametti, former Justice minister of Canada and current Liberal MP for LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will resign on January 31st, to return to legal practice.

He says he still doesn't know why he was fired last summer and says that any delays in appointing judges are not up to him, but to the Prime Minister office, who took way too long to approve his picks.

[MaxQue]

And now, Parm Gill, Ontario Minister for Red Tape Reduction and PC MPP for Milton is also resigning as both minister and MPP to return to federal politics (he was MP for Brampton-Springdale from 2011 to 2015).

[MaxQue]

David Lametti, former Justice minister of Canada and current Liberal MP for LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will resign on January 31st, to return to legal practice.

He says he still doesn't know why he was fired last summer and says that any delays in appointing judges are not up to him, but to the Prime Minister office, who took way too long to approve his picks.

A byelection would most likely be a Lib coronation; but in light of provincial QS results and everything, the NDP *could* be worth monitoring as a sleeper factor, unless Jonathan Pedneault gives it another Green run and monkeywrenches things...

Verdun is a great fit for QS and the NDP, but definitively not LaSalle.

[MaxQue]

Should NDP voters vote PC there?

[MaxQue]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

Not really. They won the election by 9 last time and the last poll has they winning by 6.

[MaxQue]

I think this is the first time Conception Bay has gone Liberal in a gazillion years! But there is a bit of tendency in Atlantic Canada for byelections to favour the government since there is still this old clientelist attitude that unless you elect someone from the government side your roads will never get paved.

VOCM claims to have the final results. Liberal 2603, PC 2152, NDP 846, Ind 70.

Last time it voted Liberal is 1999.

[MaxQue]

Today's Borden-Kinkora (PEI) by-election has been postponed until tomorrow due to another Atlantic Canada storm.

And they just postponed it again to Wednesday.

[MaxQue]

Today's Borden-Kinkora (PEI) by-election has been postponed until tomorrow due to another Atlantic Canada storm.

With 2 boxes left, it seems it will be a Green gain from PC by 200 to 300 votes.

[MaxQue]

Final results

Matt MacFarlane (Green) 1,226 (48.9%) +14.1
Carmen Reeves (PC) 964 (38.5%) -21.7
Gordon Sobey (Liberal) 272 (10.9%)
Karen Morton (NDP) 40 (1.6%) -1.3

Green gain from PC.

Turnout: 58.9% (-9.1)

[MaxQue]

Final results

Matt MacFarlane (Green) 1,226 (48.9%) +14.1
Carmen Reeves (PC) 964 (38.5%) -21.7
Gordon Sobey (Liberal) 272 (10.9%)
Karen Morton (NDP) 40 (1.6%) -1.3

Green gain from PC.

Turnout: 58.9% (-9.1)

Was this result expected or a surprise?

Certainly a surprise to me. I thought the incumbent Tory government was really popular. And it's not like the Green candidate was a star or anything, he was their candidate in last year's election and lost.

Local news reports say the green campaign was laser-focused on re-opening the intensive care department at the Summerside hospital (the current PC government decided to centralize all intensive care in Charlottetown and transform the rest in "progressive care"). They were surely helped by Health PEI closing half those "progressive" beds in Summerside due to a worker shortage in the middle of the by-election campaign.

[MaxQue]

Independent isn't really telling the whole story (he became an independent in 2021 due to sexual accusations, which seem to have faded as soon he left the party), but he still gets positions on the council on the Projet quota. He is also supported by people like Jimmy Zoubris, which is somewhat of a big cheese in both Montreal NDP and Projet (he is an advisor to Valérie Plante).

His main problem might be that his ward barely overlaps the riding.

[MaxQue]

Final

Blackmore, Dana (Liberal Party)   2244
Gill, Jim (New Democratic Party)   169
McKenna, Jim (Progressive Conservative Party)3290

PC 57.7% (+21.1%)
Liberals 39.3% (-21.8 )
NDP 3.0% (+0.7)