when will Texas be winnable for Democrats?

[jesmo]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

sort of true but Kerry only got around 54% of the Hispanic vote nationwide IIRC so it's not a solid a bloc as we think of it / as it should be.  and Obama being black make prevent him from approaching Gore numbers (which was around 60%; plus McCain isn't a wingnut on immigration.  he'll do considerably better among Hispanics than Romney would have.)  but if the GOP keeps moving right on immigration it is only logical that the Hispanic bloc would begin to move away from them.

the other argument is that Hispanics will be viewed as 'White' within the next few decades, much as Irish and Italians were not considered white way back during the immigration waves but were assimilated.  that's why this debate should be interesting.

I doubt Hispanics will ever be viewed as White. Hispanics are much different from Americans culturally, than Irish and Italians were. Spanish will always be spoken as a second language, while Italian and Gaelic slowly died out.

I tend to disagree as many Hispanics view themselves as whites and they share many characteristics with earlier immigrant groups from Europe. In addition English as as a linguistic force especailly in the United States is much too powerful a force to overcome along with the fact that many if not most Latinos desire an English education and a desire to learn the English  language. Although I do think that Latinos in urban areas will become more bilingual then their counterparts in suburban and rural areas and will be quite simlier to Italian or Eastern European communities in urban areas over time.             

Well they do share some characteristics, but they will stay much more Hispanic than Italians stayed Italian just because they are a bigger group and have good contact with family. I think that almost all Hispanics will be bilingual even in 2100, or so. This is certainly not true of Italians. Sure they will assimilate, but not to the extent than earlier Europeans did.

I think you are underestimating the power of assimilation.  Even Obama and Clinton acknowledged the need for immigrants to learn English in the last debate.  Once we get some sort of meaningful immigration reform I would expect there to be more pressure from both government and society for immigrants to assimilate.  If we can get immigration under control within the next president's first term I would expect almost full assimilation (including loss of familial ties and native language) to be gone within two generations.

No way. Hispanics will not loose Family Ties, in the 21st Century. I might see a reduction in the use of Native Language as early as 2040, but I do not think they will loose small parts of their culture, and Hispanics will still be much different from Italians. Remember it took two wars, to strip America of its German heritage in the Midwest, Plains and Texas.

It is a damn shame that the Midwest lost its German Language Heritage.