2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting. (user search)
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Author Topic: 2010 Governors Race- 2011/2012 US House Redistricting.  (Read 10809 times)
muon2
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« on: October 23, 2009, 07:25:09 AM »

Getting rid of Roskam-IL-6,Biggert-IL-13,and Manzullo-IL-16 and protecting Bean-IL-8,whoever wins IL-10,Halverson-IL-11, and Foster-IL-14.
1)We place Foster-IL-14 and Manzullo-IL-16 in the same district with most of the voters from Foster's old district. It will include all of Kane County,Kendell County,DeKalb,Lee,Ogle-including Manzullo's home,and western part of DuPage County. The new IL-16 will include most of the old IL-16 plus portions of Rock Island County-IL-17.  The Bureau,Henry,and Whiteside portion of the old IL-14 will go to IL-17.
2)We carve up Biggert- IL-13- place Will County in IL-11(Halverson-D),Cook County in IL-3(Lipinski-D),and DuPage County in IL-6(Roskam-R). (Biggert-IL-13) and (Roskam-IL-6) will run in the same district. The new IL-6 will gain the western portions of IL-5(Quigley-D) and IL-9(Shakowsky-D)-It will be a safe DEM district. IL-9 will gain the Eastern portion of IL-5 will gain the northern part of IL-4. IL-4(Guitteriez-D) will gain the western part of IL-7 and northern part of IL-3. IL-7 will take the northern portions of IL-1, IL-1 will take the northern portion of IL-2 and IL-2 will will take in Will and Kendell.  a competive primary can help Democrats defeat Roskam-R.
3)IL-19(Shimkus-R) district gets eliminated. Springfield portion goes to IL-17, St Louis portion goes to IL-12. rest goes to IL-15.

You haven't paid attention to VRA-required minority districts. IL-7 cannot afford to lose its western end to IL-4 since that reduces the Black vote in IL-7 and the Hispanic vote in IL-4. If IL-7 compensates by moving into IL-1 and 2 too far, then it is very hard to keep both those districts majority Black. In any case neither IL-1 or IL-2 can go anywhere near Kendall without antirely sacrificing their Black majority.

IL-7 will stay the same in the west and add just enough from IL-1 to add the necessary population. IL-1 moves into IL-3 in far SW Cook and IL-2 may stretch down to eastern Kankakee to add the needed population. There aren't many options to maintain three Black-majority seats.

The easiest move for IL-4 is into IL-3's Chicago and near Cook suburban area. Projections indicate that combining the northern part of IL-4 with parts of IL-5 and IL-6 will permit the formation of a second Hispanic-majority seat. Again this constrains a lot of the moves you suggest.
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muon2
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2009, 10:50:38 PM »

Illinios Redistricting plan.
IL-1(Rush-D) absorbs the Cook County portion of the old IL-13. The new IL-1 will be a 80-20 Obama-D. and will remain a CBC District.
IL-2 (Jackson-D)absorbs the Eastern Will and Kankakee portion of the old IL-11. The new IL-2 will be 80-20 Obama-D. will remain a CBC District.
IL-3 (Lipinski-D vs Biggert-R) absorbs the DuPage County portion of the old IL-13. The new IL-3 will be 60-40 Obama-D (Lipinski-D) is favored to defeat Biggert-R.
IL-4 (Guitteriez-D)- absorbs the central portion of the old IL-7. will be a 85-15 Obama-D. will remain a Hispanic Majority District.
IL-5(Quigley-D)-absorbs- the northern DuPage and Cook County portion of IL-6. will be a 65-35 Obama-D- Quigley-D remains safe.
IL-6(Roskam-R)-absorbs the Western portions of IL-4 and IL-7. will be a 75-25 Obama-D will become Hispanic Majority District- Roskam-R loses re-election.
IL-7(Whoever replaces Davis-D)- absorbs the Eastern portion of the old IL-5. will be an 80-20 Obama district but it will be a minority coalition district. The White Liberal voters from old IL-5 will replace minority voters that went to IL-6.


Minority coalition districts are not supported by the VRA. IL-7 will have to remain Black-majority to qualify so you cannot take the central and western parts to form other districts without losing a majority-minority district.

The Hispanic areas needed to make two districts from the current IL-4 are in the current IL-3 and 5. There's only a sliver of Hispanic-majority area in IL-6 and it doesn't abut the population in IL-4 without going through IL-5. Nobody lives in the western loop of IL-4, it primarily consists of parks, railways and cemeteries.

Your proposal for a Dem in IL-5 may work, but it won't be Quigley unless he moves. He lives in the eastern part of his district with most of its population. To have Quigley still live in a district that stretches across northern DuPage would have too many people. If you take out the Hispanic parts of his district which are in the west, the remainder will have to come from Schakowsky's district.

You don't explain what happens to the western part of Biggert's district which includes Naperville. It's been one of the fastest growing areas of the state and leans R. Foster's district includes the fastest growing county in the nation and he has to lose population. You don't say what areas he loses and where those areas end up.
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