European Parliament elections, June 2024

[MRCVzla]

Agence Europe reports that the Coreper has accepted a compromise proposal which expands the EP to 720 seats. It's behind a paywall, so can't see the exact distribution, but Danish MEPs report it means an extra Danish seat, so now 15. With acceptance om Coreper, it would take something really weird for the Council proper to not approve it.

 https://agenceurope.eu/en/bulletin/article/13230/2

The European Council proposal mentioned in the first post originally increases the size of the EP up to 11 seats (a total of 716). Spain and the Netherlands would gain 2 MEPs each while Denmark, Ireland, Latvia, Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland gains 1 MEP each. The Coreper (ambassadors) report suggests add 4 more seats to the Council proposal, in this report France would gain 2 MEPs and Belgium and Poland would also increase to 1 MEP each their delegations.

https://oeil.secure.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/popups/summary.do?id=1748058&t=d&l=en
https://electomania.es/los-27-plantean-sumar-dos-nuevos-escanos-a-espana-en-el-parlamento-europeo-28jl23/ (Spanish)

Around September/October is expected the final say on the redistribution.

[MRCVzla]

Spain: PSOE has confirmed who Deputy PM and Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera will be the lead candidate on the party' European elections.

In other parties, after the Basque regional election results, IU finally accepted the 4th place within Sumar' EP list who will be occupied by current MEP Manu Pineda, the list will be lead by Estrella Galán, current general director of the Spanish Commission for Refugee Assistance (CEAR), 2nd for the list is reserved to the catalan Comuns (former MP Jaume Asens), the 3rd for the valencian Compromís (designed by internal primaries) and Más Madrid getting the 5th. As everybody knows, Podemos is running alone with former Equality Minister Irene Montero seeking to get more than one seat.

Any news yet by PP' list, most likely Dolors Montserrat will lead again and probably integrate some former Cs members on it, speaking of Cs, former MP Juan Carlos Girauta will be at Vox' list after current MEPs Jorge Buxadé (party' deputy leader) and Hermann Tertsch meanwhile Jordi Cañas will try to keep Ciudadanos in the EP. On the nationalist camp, ERC MEP Diana Riba is leading the "Ara Republiques" list along again with EH Bildu and BNG, now enforced with the Balear Ara Més (former Compromís/Sumar ally), 2nd of that list will be catalan public regional broadcaster' weatherman Tomás Molina. With Puigdemont focus to return to Catalunya, the other Junts MEP Toni Comín is seeking reelection, whereas the PNV-led list is headed by a "new face", former Bilbao councilor Ohiane Agirregoitia. Among the extraparliamentary parties or new platforms trying to get representation it's getting some noise one with a controversial right-wing influencer and unfamous fake news spreader Alvise Pérez as well other ones also trying to cater the UPyD/Cs-liberal-centrist-unionist space like Izquierda Española or La Tercera España, also the España Vaciada localist movement has showed their intention to run as well.

Coalitions who want to run have until Friday to be registered, on the same day the Catalan regional election campaign starts.

[MRCVzla]

Italy: Multiple national leaders will run in almost all constituencies. PM Giorgia Meloni will be the list holder for FdI in all constituencies, encourages express a preference on her and calls the European election as a "plesbcite" on her government. In "response", Azione' Carlo Calenda is also running along with former Minister and MP Elena Bonetti, and just in, SUE' Emma Bonino confirmed what Matteo Renzi will be also running as the last on the list in 4 constituencies.

Also likely running in all constituencies for the Lega is Salvini' personal bet, the controversial army general Roberto Vannacci, who has several xenophobic/homophobic/sexist views, after his candidacy was confirmed he say there should be "separate classes for disabled peoples" and called Mussolini "an statist", such an HP, Vannacci' candidacy hasn't well received within the Lega with critics by Minister Giorgetti or regional presidents Zaia or Fedriga, who encourages their voters to express a preference on local Lega candidates on their lists.

On minor parties collecting signatures to be on the ballot, Santoro' Pace Terra Dignita' says they collected enough signatures to run in all constituencies meanwhile Rizzo/Toscano' DSP only collected enough signatures in 2 constituencies, they begged and reunited with Meloni to reduce the number of signatures needed, but seems they got rejected.

Greece: 31 parties/coalitions are authorized by the Supreme Court to run in the European election, 14 were excluded as they failed to collect a 20k euros' fee to participate as well other requirements, among that, the Court has officially banned the far-right Spartans party, determinates what convicted Ilias Kasidaris is the actual leader of the party and will be a trial for voter fraud against Kasidaris and the party' 11 MPs after the election on June 19, as well an impeachment process for the MPs (but that's more a domestic issue to be treated in their own topic). More than 202k voters  from 128 countries are registered to postal voting abroad, an 280% increase respect to last year' national elections.

[MRCVzla]

Spain: European election poll by SigmaDos (El Mundo)
PP-EPP: 35.7% (23)
PSOE-S&D: 28.9% (19)
VOX-ECR: 11.9% (7)
Sumar-G/EFA|LEFT: 9.5% (6)
AR-G/EFA|LEFT: 4.1% (2)
Podemos-LEFT: 3.1% (2)
Junts-NI: 2.0% (1)
CEUS-RE: 1.8% (1)

Tomorrow is the deadline to submit lists, only doubts are mostly in Sumar who's still seeking the 6th on the list, as incumbent MEP María Eugenia Rodríguez-Palop is not running, Compromís elected Vicent Marza as the 3rd, Más Madrid member at 5th will be Andere Nieva and former MEP Florent Marcellesi from Verdes Equo is the 7th. In Vox after the Buxadé-Tertsch-Girauta combo will be former MP Mireia Borras and MEP Margarita de la Pisa as 4th and 5th, the 6th will be Jorge Martín Frías, a director of a party-linked foundation named "Disenso".

Now the big ones, both PP and PSOE have been revealed their lists. PP lists include 3 ongoing Ciudadanos MEPs with their brief party leader Adrián Vásquez (who resigned bc he was more favourable to merged Cs with PP) within top 10, the list will be closed by writer Fernando Savater, related to the UPyD/Cs unionist sphere. PSOE rescues Leire Pajín, former minister under Zapatero as the 8th, some internal riffs in Andalucía, Aragón or Castilla y León about the formation of the list and the rejection of certain candidates designed by those federations.

Following the seats projected by SigmaDos poll, there are the PP and PSOE lists:
PP-EPP
1. Dolors Montserrat (MEP)
2. Carmen Crespo (member of the Andalusian regional government)
3. Alma Ezcurra (Madrid Assembly MP)
4. Esteban González Pons (MP and party Deputy Secretary, MEP until the 23J GE)
5. Fernando Navarrete (economist, chief staff of the governor of the Bank of Spain)
6. Javier Zarzalejos (MEP)
7. Rosa Estarás (MEP)
8. Francisco Millán Mon (MEP)
9. Pilar del Castillo (MEP, former Minister)
10. Adrián Vásquez (MEP, former Cs leader)
11. Gabriel Mato (MEP)
12. Raúl de la Hoz (party spokeperson in the Castilla y León Cortes)
13. Esther Hernanz (former MEP)
14. Juan Ignacio Zoido (MEP, former Minister)
15. Susana Solís (MEP from Cs)
16. Pablo Arias (MEP)
17. Antonio López-Isturiz (MEP)
18. Isabel Benjumea (MEP)
19. Borja Giménez Larraz (son of a former PP leader in Aragón murdered by ETA, advisor to MEP Zarzalejos)
20. Elena Nevado del Campo
21. Nicolás Pascual de la Parte (former NATO Council ambassador)
22. Maravillas Abadía
23. Eva Poptcheva (MEP from Cs)
24th is Carlos Iturgaiz (Basque PP leader).

PSOE-S&D:
1. Teresa Ribera (Deputy PM and Minister of Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge)
2. Iratxe García Pérez (MEP and President of the S&D Group)
3. Javi López (MEP, PSC quota)
4. Hana Jalloul (MP and former Madrid Assembly MP)
5. Javier Moreno (MEP)
6. Lina Gálvez (MEP)
7. Jonás Fernández (MEP)
8. Leire Pajín (former Minister)
9. Cesar Luena (MEP and former party Secretary of Organization)
10. Idoia Mendia (ongoing Deputy Lehendakari in the Basque government)
11. Nicolás González Casares (MEP)
12. Cristina Maestre (MEP)
13. Juan Fernando López Aguilar (MEP)
14. Sandra Gómez (former Deputy Mayor of Valencia)
15. Nacho Sánchez Amor (MEP)
16. Laura Ballarín (MEP)
17. Marcos Ros (MEP)
18. Rosa María Serrano (Senator for Huesca and former delegate of the Government)
19. Elena Sancho (Navarrese quota, local councilor in Ribaforada)
20th is José Cepeda (Madrid Assembly MP) and 21st is Balearic MEP Alicia Homs.

[MRCVzla]

The most "interesting" issue in the last hours about the EP election are the internal movements within the far-right ID group, Le Pen and Salvini (and joined today by czech SPD' Okamura) have broke-up with AfD after his lead candidate Maximilian Krah did say on a interview: "I will never say that anyone who whore a SS uniform was automatically a criminal", Krah has already resigned from the AfD leadership and stopped his campaign (still remains as a "electable" candidate for now).
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1793236863659975156

Tomorrow is the Eurovision Debate in the Brussels' EP hemicycle. Attending the spitzenkandidats from EPP (von der Leyen), PES (Nicolas Schmit), Renew (EDP's renziani-macronista Sandro Gozi), EGP (Terry Reintke of the German Greens) and PEL (Walter Baier from the Austrian KPO). The conservative far-right is missing due to neither ECR and ID did not nominate any "spitzenkandidat".

On Election Twitter seems to be kind of popular this voting advice site EU&I, 30 questions and may give your likely preference in all 27 countries (plus the 3 Belgian linguistic constituencies): https://euandi.eu/

[MRCVzla]

AfD has just been expelled from the ID group caucus. Effective immediately.

They currently have 9 MEPs with 15-17 projected seats according to many Polling aggregators' predictions.

https://twitter.com/IDGroupEP/status/1793656087603761431

[MRCVzla]

A brief resume of some races:
Germany: CDU/CSU easy lead, fight for the second between SPD and groupless AfD, Sahra can have a nice result, FDP and Linke still seeking enough seats in the around 5% area, Volt can surprise.
France: RN landslide, Macronismo fights the 2nd with a Glucksmann-reborn PS, Zemmour/Marechal are entering, Republicains and Ecologistes trying to have more than 5-6.
Italy: Many will write Giorgia in the ballot but not enough seats as Salvini 5 years ago. Lega narrowly can avoid FI' sorpasso despite all the internal tensions for the neofascist Vannacci, all eyes if the Green-Left and/or one of both ego liberals passes the 4% threshold, Cateno' Liberty list can lead some Sicilian areas but not will be enough.
Spain: All centered in the Begoña case and the Amnesty, PSOE can win o short more distance to PP like 23J, Sumar may dissapoint and while Podemos can benefit, the surprise may be the surge of right-wing populist Alvise' SALF, in Vox are worried if he prives them to double MEPs (elected 4 in 2019, projected 6-7).
Poland: Close race between PiS and KO, turnout may decide, Konfederacja may perform better than last year and Lewica may get less than 5 expected seats.
Romania: PSD-PNL groko alliance very expected landslide, AUR and USR-right coalition feuds to lead opposition, Sosoaca' SOS may end short or surprises.
Hungary: Fidesz is winning but Magyar' TISZA may give some hopes for the future, at cost of the rest of the ongoing opposition, Mi Hazánk and the satirical MKKP are around the threshold.
Portugal: Dejavu of March election, PS and AD close race with Chega securing 3 but the 4th at risk, IL can double and CDU and Livre are fighting around the "natural threshold" of 4%.
Greece: Mitsotakis still wins but not around 40%, Kasselakis may live another day if SYRIZA sticks at 4, Velopoulos can confirm momentum, NIKI may overperform but not enough for a 2nd seat, Konstantopoulou or New Left tries to secure being over 3%, below threshold but close may be new right-wing muse Latinopoulou, Varoufakis and the centrist Loverdos.
Czechia (voting ongoing): Babis' ANO may lead again, for SPOLU coalition may be enough if polls over 20%, the Communists-led coalition resurges while Prisaha coalition would be around the 5%.
Slovakia: Fico' failed magnicide may rise a little bit the low turnout usually the Slovaks have and give a competitive race to liberal PS, same low turnout may decide the fate of lots of lists like Matovic, SNS, the Hungarians or even a so-revived Democrats.
Sweden: One of the moments of truth for the blue coalition, specially if KD and/or Liberalerna finally fails below 4%.
Slovenia: Only highlight is green Vesna' performance as well how much be Jansa' SDS win respect to Golob' Sloboda.
Estonia: The Centre may lose or not their seat, good oportunity to Isamaa' reconfirm momentum.
Latvia: 8 parties can obtain one of the 9 seats, conservative NA leads the race for the 2nd seat, the Russians spies are most likely very out.

To watch after the election if AfD with their potential allies as well BSW/M5S/Smer... can have enough seats to form new groups as well the potential ECR+ID+Fidesz merge and how will be the reallignment of the right-of-EPP. Still the commission should be likely the usual Groko but some voices may prefer people like Draghi over VDL.