Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[ChrisFromNJ]

I have not heard the "white Catholic" rumor, but I suspect that Hillary is underpolling (Bradley Effect).

Based on what? Your own wishful thinking?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Well I see Obama's people are already complaining about the voting machines "breaking down" in Philly. Sigh... it shall not be a good day for my friend.

That's pretty much their job, regardless of how good/bad the result is going to be.  Other rumblings I've heard say that new voters are getting the wrong precinct locations.

S**t happens.

So basically it's just like any other normal day at the polls?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Shouldn't we be getting "exit polls" right about now?

Probably within about 10 minutes, we'll get at least *something* (probably useless demo information).

And sure enough - we just got useless exit poll info from CNN.

[ChrisFromNJ]

From CNN - new exit poll info.


1 out 7 new voters in PA - they went 60-38 Obama

Voters who made up mind in last week - they went  58-42 Hillary

[ChrisFromNJ]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

Source?

CNN. Schneider just reported them just a few minutes ago.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

That comes out to a near even race per my math, assuming white women went 60-40 for Hillary.

I have the women vote as 65-35 and Hillary winning by 4 (52-48)

[ChrisFromNJ]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

That comes out to a near even race per my math, assuming white women went 60-40 for Hillary.

I have the women vote as 65-35 and Hillary winning by 4 (52-48)

Looks like Matt Drudge did your math too.

This is looking not especially unlike Ohio (before the polls close, at least).

Apparently so. This is my math

White women: 46% of electorate - 65-35 Hillary
White men: 35% of electorate - 55-45 Hillary
Blacks: 14% of electorate - 92-8 Obama
Other: 5% of the electorate - 50-50

Obama can do a bit better than this if black turnout is up.

[ChrisFromNJ]

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Well, that's a bit of welcome news even if Obama loses.

Yup. Any time you see more liberals than moderates in these polls, it makes me very happy.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

He did better in Pennsylvania than he did in Ohio.

If these race numbers are correct, with higher than expected black turnout, he can come within a few points. 40% is not great, but it's not as bad as he did in Ohio.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

He did better in Pennsylvania than he did in Ohio.

If these race numbers are correct, with higher than expected black turnout, he can come within a few points. 40% is not great, but it's not as bad as he did in Ohio.

These are early numbers, remember.

Yup - I'll be interested to see what CNN.com's adjusted exit polls look like right at 8:00 PM EST. Their adjusted exit polls as soon as the Ohio polls closed were right on.

[ChrisFromNJ]

According to MSNBC:

14% black
80% white

55% no college degree
45% with a college degree

45% under 50k
55% over 50k

city: 27%
suburbs: 52%
rural: 21%

18-29: 10%
65 and up: 27%

If those hold, Hillary looks like she will have a 4 point win (52-48), just like the exit polls have been reporting.

[ChrisFromNJ]

According to MSNBC:

14% black
80% white

55% no college degree
45% with a college degree

45% under 50k
55% over 50k

city: 27%
suburbs: 52%
rural: 21%

18-29: 10%
65 and up: 27%

If those hold, Hillary looks like she will have a 4 point win (52-48), just like the exit polls have been reporting.

How are you calculating that?

80% White - 60-40 Hillary ---->> .80*60=  48.00 for Hillary,  .80*40=32.00 for Obama
14% Black - 92-8 Obama-------> .14*8 =    1.12 for Hillary,   .14*92= 12.88 for Obama
6% Other - 50-50 ----------------> .6*50=    3.00 for Hillary,    .6*50 = 03.00 for Obama
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     52.12 for Hillary               47.88 for Obama

[ChrisFromNJ]

Adjusted exit polls show no change - 52- 48 Hillary

[ChrisFromNJ]

Hurry up with those results, Fast Eddie!

[ChrisFromNJ]

Hahahahaha funny debate on CNN, both the Republicans and Democrats are being ridiculous. I really hate that Bill Bennet guy and Paul Begala. What assholes.

I Paul Begala.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Finally, some results!

[ChrisFromNJ]

Updated exit polls are still 52-48.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Warren County reporting. It's going 70-30 to Hillary with 25% precincts reporting.

[ChrisFromNJ]

How do you call the race with 1% of precincts reporting when the exit polls are this close? Faux News is a joke.

[ChrisFromNJ]

CNN calls it for Hillary.

[ChrisFromNJ]

John King is saying that Hillary and her campaign will start making the Dukakis argument about Obama. I think that would be a particularly good strategy. These numbers in PA are frightening. It looks like Obama won't even come close.

[ChrisFromNJ]

John King is saying that Hillary and her campaign will start making the Dukakis argument about Obama. I think that would be a particularly good strategy. These numbers in PA are frightening. It looks like Obama won't even come close.

what was that?

Dukakis could not hold onto the working class white vote in the general. It looks like Obama may have the same problem.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Fellas, with this big win by Hillary, I am convinced this race is heading to the convention.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Fellas, with this big win by Hillary, I am convinced this race is heading to the convention.

You're joking?

No, I am not. Hillary has made a very good electability argument. She can, should and will take this to the convention, and she has every right.