Anyway, comparing internals. SUSA in red, PPP in blue
Race
White: 81 | 76
Black: 14 | 18
I'll give this one to PPP; as Alcon pointed out, 22% of Kerry voters in PA in 2004 were black.
Gender
Male: 45 | 42
Female: 55 | 58
I give this one to PPP, reflecting exit polls in other states. But paradoxically this would imply that Obama does better with more women involved, obviously not true.
Age
Unfortunately, they broke down age groups differently, so these will be listed separately.
SUSA
18-34: 21
35-49: 29
50-64: 28
65+: 21
PPP
18-29: 16
30-45: 25
46-65: 35
65+: 24
Ironically, the one area where they broke down the numbers the same way, the 65+ range, PPP had more voters. So, again, Clinton's most favorable demographic was actually larger with PPP than with SUSA!
Region
Northeast: 11 | 9
Southeast: 43 | 45
South: 10 | 10
West: 7 + 4 | 10
Southwest: 24 | 26
SUSA divided West and Northwest in their numbers; PPP did not. PPP is marginally more regionally favorable to Obama, but not in a way that could explain more than a fraction of a percent of difference. As both are so close to each other, I'll call it a tie.
Whites break towards Hillary 52-38 in PPP's poll, and 58-36 in Survey USA's poll. Blacks break towards Obama 81-12 in PPP's poll while they break 87-11 to Obama in SurveyUSA's poll.
If Hillary gets 60% white support, than it will be very hard for Obama to win the state. If there is higher than expected black turnout and the turnout is closer to 20%, than Obama can come close. SurveyUSA has black turnout at 14% and PPP has black turnout at 18%. If the black turnout is what PPP predicts it will be, Obama has a chance to win the state by a razor-thin margin if the white undecideds break his way.
However, it looks very unlikely.
