Australia - 7 September 2013

[Platypus]

ACT: (Non-voting member 1949-1974)

1949

Independent: 1

First representation in parliament, but not allowed to vote on anything not specifically relating to the ACT.

1951

Labor: 1

Jim Fraser is elected for his first term.

1954

Labor: 1

And his second.

1955

Labor: 1

And his third.

1958

Labor: 1

And his fourth.

1961

Labor: 1

And his fifth. Interestingly enough, his brother was the member for Eden-Monaro for much of this time.

1963

Labor: 1

And his sixth.

1966

Labor: 1

And his seventh. From this election on, the ACT members would have full voting rights.

1969

Labor: 1

And his eighth and final time, in opposition the whole way through.

1972

Labor: 1

1974

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1975

Liberal: 1
Labor: 1

A tie! This was also the first time the ACT elected senators, one for Labor and one for the Liberals.

1977

Liberal: 1
Labor: 1

Traditionally more left-wing northern Canberra (Fraser) is Labor, southern Canberra (Canberra) Liberal.

1980

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

As things tighten up nationally, the ACT goes back to it's normal situation.

1983

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1984

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1987

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1990

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1993

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

1996

Labor: 3
Liberal: 0

The ACT gets a brief period with three members (it should have a third now, btw, instead of the NT having a second, population-wise) and they all go to the ALP despite Howard's landslide win. The third seat, Namadgi, is quite marginal though (far south of Canberra).

1998

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

The Howard years are set for Bob McMullan and Annette Ellis to serve on the opposition benches.

2001

Labor: 2
Liberal: 0

No change, and in this election, no chance of change whatsoever - the Liberals were very much on the nose, and the Australian Democrats very nearly snatched the second senate seat from the coalition.

2004

Labor: 2
Liberals: 0

2007

Labor: 2
Liberals: 0

2010

Labor: 2
Liberals: 0

2013 (predicition)

Liberal: 0
Labor: 2

[Platypus]

OK< so I have no love for Rudd, but I can't believe we're choosing Tony Abbott over him. This country... :rolleyes:

[Platypus]

Just a note that these are snapshots in relation to the government formed at the election. Subsequent changes not involving an election (1975, for example, and lots of oddities in the first years) are ignored.

Queensland:

1901

Protectionists: 3
Labour: 4 (coalition w Protectionists)
Independent: 2
Free Trade: 0

1903

Protectionist: 2
Labour: 6 (in coalition w Prots)
Independent: 1
Free Trade: 0

1906

Protectionist: 1
Labour: 4 (in coalition w Protectionists)
Anti-Socialists: 4

1910

Labour: 6
Commonwealth Liberal: 3

1913

Commonwealth Liberal: 3
Labor: 7

Queensland's first time bucing the national result was on the eve of WW1, when Labor still commanded huge loyalty in rural Queensland, where the party was formed. But soon enough a lot of those types would be overseas...

1914

Labor: 7
Commonwealth Liberal: 3

1917

Nationalist: 6
Labor: 4

1919

Nationalist: 7
Labor: 3

1922

Nationalists: 7
Country Party: 1 (in coalition w Nationalists)
Labor: 2

1925

Nationalists: 8
Country: 1 (coalition w N)
Labor: 1

1928

Nationalists: 6
Country: 2 (in coalition w N)
Labor: 2

1929

Labor: 3
Nationalists: 5
Country: 2

The arrival of the Country Party a few elections previous had essentially killed off the advantage that Labor had in Queensland, as Agrarian Socialists found they were more Agrarians than Socialists. At the state level, Labor would continue to do well in Queensland, but federally they were never again to expect the large majorities they once commanded in the delegation, even from opposition. Or would they...?

1931

United Australia Party: 2
Country: 2 (in coalition w UAP)
Independent: 1
Labor: 5

Labor show they do still have life in Queensland, taking half the seats even though the Scullin government fails to be returned. IIRC there was a bit of a blue on in Queensland at the time, but I can't remember the details. There are often blues on in Queensland

1934

UAP: 3
Country: 2 (in coalition w UAP)
Labor: 5

The state splits evenly, with Labor having a plurality of seats but the government parties holding as many.

1937

UAP: 2
Country: 3 (in coalition w UAP)
Labor: 5

The Country party takes a seat off the UAP, as their prominence on the right of QLD politics arrives at the federal level.

1940

Labor: 6
UAP: 2
Country: 2

Labor is slightly ahead of the national mood in terms of seats won, but is in line with the national swing towards Labor. The Labor party would end up governing not too long after the election.

1943

Labor: 6
Country: 3
UAP: 1

1946

Labor: 5
Country: 3
Liberal: 1
Liberal/Country: 1

Labor hold onto government after the war ends, with Chifley losing one seat in Queensland as part of a loss of 6 nationally. His reforms would prove least popular up north, though, just as parliament was expanded. Communism was not well loved in Queensland, even though it was the birthplace of Australian Socialism.

1949

Liberal: 9
Country: 6 (Coalition)
Labor: 3

1951

Liberal: 9
Country: 5 (Coalition)
Labor: 4

1954

Liberal: 8
Country: 5 (Coalition)
Labor: 5

1955

Liberal: 8
Country: 5 (Coalition)
Labor: 5

1958

Liberal: 10
Country: 5
Labor: 3

1961

Country: 4
Liberal: 3 (coalition)
Labor: 11

I actually don't know what caused such a massive changeover in Queensland in 1961, if anyone knows I'd be interested in hearing it

1963

Liberal: 6
Country: 4 (coalition)
Labor: 8

Still not sure. Maybe the DLP collapsed in Queensland or something? A reaction to the Coalition's migration programme?

1966

Liberal: 8
Country: 4 (Coalition)
Labor: 6

1969

Liberal: 7
Country: 4 (Coalition)
Labor: 7

1972

Labor: 8
Liberal: 6
Country: 4

Labor wins against the Liberals in terms of having the most members, but the coalition keeps control of Queensland's members despite Whitlam's win.

1974

Labor: 6
Liberal: 7
Country: 5

Whitlam loses support in Queensland, and the Senate is interesting... (I'll leave that hanging)

1975

Liberal: 9
Country: 8
Labor: 1

1977

Liberal: 9
Country: 7 (coalition)
Labor: 3

1980

Liberal: 7
Country: 7 (coalition)
Labor: 5

1983

Labor: 10
Country: 6
Liberal: 3

1984

Labor: 9
National: 8
Liberal: 7

Labor win a plurality of seats after parliament is expanded, but only just. Relations between the Nationals and Liberals are tense, but not as tense as they will be by the next election, when Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen launches his "Joh for Canberra" campaign, opening the door for Labor.

1987

Labor: 13
National: 6
Liberal: 5

1990

Labor: 15
Liberal: 6
National: 3

1993

Labor: 13
Liberal: 7
National: 5

1996

Liberal: 17
National: 6 (coalition)
Independent/Liberal: 1
Labor: 2

1998

Liberal: 14
National: 5 (coalition)
Labor: 8

2001

Liberal: 15
National: 4 (coalition)
Independent: 1
Labor: 7

2004

Liberal: 17
National: 4 (coalition)
Independent: 1
Labor: 6

2007

Labor: 15
Independent: 1
Liberal: 10
National: 3

2010

Labor: 8 (minority government)
Independent: 1
Liberal National Party: 21

After losing home-state hero KRudd immediately before the election, Labor lose 7 seats in the state and with it, majority government.

2013 (prediction)

LNP: 18
Independent: 1
Labor: 11

[Platypus]

Pretty impressed with both sides, tbh. Actually answered some questions, including some tough questions.

I think Rudd had to win and did, but what ought to have been a killer blow about the costings wasn't because people seem to be largely ignoring that.

[Platypus]

Ironically I reckon Mal has a better chance of becoming leader in government rather than in opposition.

Meanwhile, check out this http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-28/vote-compass-map-battlelines-seats-at-odds/4909772.

Interesting that for about 90% of the left-wing questions, my electorate finishes in the Top 10. The electorates that do seem very similar.

Melbourne Ports make the lefty ten on the settlement, republic, foreign aid, turn back the boats, abortion access, more immigrants, uni funding, climate change, defence spending, marriage rights, health insurance rebates, non-govt schools (the state split on that is delicious), euthanasia, indigenous recognition, carbon pricing, and stimulus spending.

On the right-wing side for paid parental leave equal pay.

Not sure where it lies politically, but also on the list for least favourable to restricting foreign purchase of agricultural land, and on restricting 457s.

Not on either list for car funding, business regulation, mining tax, live animal exports, affirmative action for women, NBN pricing, CSG, Trade Union power, and workplace protections.

I think that's pretty much exactly how a proper latte liberal would side, really - left of everything except the one that means they get less money for pooing out a kid, regulation, unions, and not sure what they're talking about with the farms but it sounds kinda racist so I better oppose it.

The fact that the Liberals are running a reasonably strong campaign in the seat shows just how lacking Danby is in local support. The seat ought to be as safe as houses, and while Labor will win it, it won't be as comfortable as it ought to be.

[Platypus]

Spent the early hours muddling around with this:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/senate-calculator/

With entirely reasonable figures, ended up with NSW electing 2 Coalition, 2 Labor, 1 Green, and.... 1 Liberal Democrat.

The ACT has... Kate Ellis and.... Simon Sheikh

For Victoria, Labor and the Liberals both get two over the line, and then a loooong count as the Motoring Enthusiasts rise, and rise, and rise, and rise, and rise from 0.3% of the vote to the fifth senate spot. Greens edge out Labor for the 6th.

I don;t know how much faith, if any, to put into this

[Platypus]

That's essentially my pre-election prediction

[Platypus]

The simplest solution is probably requiring everyone to number all the boxes above the line, but it's still not exactly a simple solution.

Anyway, used his calculator for South Australia, and got 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, and then eventually Xenophon, before Sarah Hanson-Young from the Greens sneaks in over the No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics by about 20,000 votes at the very end.

It's hard to know what kind of percentages to give Palmer and Katter's parties, which makes a lot of the difference I think.

For the NT, 1 Labor, 1 Country Liberal.

WA, 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green, but Ludlam has to wait for full distribution.

[Platypus]

The LDP is also in the same situaion - even reducing their vote from 2010 by a fifth, they won that last spot in NSW, but it involved Pauline Hanson dropping out with about 12 to go. The LDP is in position A on the ballot, and Pauline Hanson is on the opposite side, so who knows what could happen?

The one state I haven't used the calculator on so far is QLD, cos I have no idea what kind of percentages to give Katter and Palmer. I'm thinking about 5% for Katter and 4% for Palmer, but it could easily be 9% and 1%

[Platypus]

Forgot about Tassie. 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green, 1 Family First just edging out Labor for the sixth spot. Doesn't seem right, but there you go

OK, QLD senate... eep.

LNP-Labor-LNP-Family First-Labor-Greens

One Nation boosted FF over Palmer United, which then boosted them to just a dash under Katter's Australian Party. Various small parties which had gone to the Sex Party split into Greens and FF, putting FF above Blundell for KAP. When Fishing and Lifestyle preferenced the LNP instead of Katter, there was no room left and Blundell was excluded, despite a reasonable whack of the votes that had been collected by Fishing and Lifestyle ending up on his side, quite a lot more went to FF, just enough to pop them over the LNP's third quota, although they actually got elected on the back of Katter's Australia Party being knocked off.

Labor sat just under a second quota for an age, and once FF was elected they only got around a quarter of the votes distributed by the collected preferences of FF, but it was enough to get them in. The greens also got about a quarter, and slipped in against the LNP for the final spot without the 0.7% surplus quota for Labor having to be distributed.

So all up, I think we ended up with:

WA:

3 Liberal
2 Labor
1 Green

NT:

1 CLP
1 ALP

SA:

2 Liberal
2 Labor
1 Independent
1 Green

TAS:

2 Labor
2 Liberal
1 Green
1 Family First

VIC:

2 Liberal
2 Labor
1 Motoring Enthusiast
1 Green

NSW:

2 Liberal
2 Labor
1 Green
1 Liberal Democrat

ACT:

1 Labor
1 Green

QLD:

2 LNP
2 Labor
1 Family First
1 Green

So,

14 Labor
13 Coalition
7 Green
2 Family First
1 Liberal Democrat
1 Motoring Enthusiast
1 Independent

There's no way that can be accurate, surely?

[Platypus]

The only comment I'll make (other than nicely done) is that Eden-Monaro is not going to flip. The Queanbeyan area is not going to swing the the Liberals, and even if the rest of the electorate does, Kelly is particularly popular and will keep it a low swing, and low enough not to overcome the Queanbeyan voting block.

[Platypus]

One week out prediction:

Western Australia

Brand: Gary Gray, ALP
Canning: Don Randall, LIB
Cowan: Luke Simpkins, LIB
Curtin: Julie Bishop, LIB
Durack: Melissa Price, LIB (new member, and one to watch)
Forrest: Nola Marino, LIB
Fremantle: Melissa Parke, ALP
Hasluck: Ken Wyatt, LIB
Moore: Ian Goodenough, LIB (new member)
O'Connor: Rick Wilson, LIB* (new member)
Pearce: Christian Porter, LIB (new member, and one to watch)
Perth: Alannah MacTiernan, ALP (new member)
Tangney: Dennis Jensen, LIB
Stirling: Michael Keenan, LIB
Swan: Steve Irons, LIB

Change: 1 WA Nationals seat to Liberals.

Seats to watch: Brand, Durack, Hasluck, O'Connor, Perth, Swan.

Northern Territory

Lingiari: Warren Snowdon, ALP
Solomon: Natasha Griggs, CLP

Change: 0 seats

Seats to watch: Lingiari, Solomon

South Australia

Adelaide: Kate Ellis, ALP
Barker: Tony Pasin, LIB (new member)
Boothby: Andrew Southcott, LIB
Grey: Rowan Ramsey, LIB
Hindmarsh: Steve Georganas, ALP
Kingston: Amanda Rishworth, ALP
Makin: Tony Zappia, ALP
Mayo: Jamie Briggs, LIB
Port Adelaide: Mark Butler, ALP
Sturt: Christopher Pyne, LIB
Wakefield: Nick Champion, ALP

Change: 0 seats

Seats to watch: Adelaide, Boothby, Hindmarsh, Makin, Sturt, Wakefield

Tasmania

Bass: Andrew Nikolic, LIB (win from ALP)
Braddon: Sid Sidebottom, ALP
Denison: Andrew Wilkie, IND
Franklin: Julie Collins, ALP
Lyons: Dick Adams, ALP

Change: 1 Labor seat to Liberals

Seats to watch: Bass, Braddon, Denison, Lyons

Victoria

Aston: Alan Tudge, LIB
Ballarat: Catherine King, ALP
Batman: David Feeney, ALP (new member)
Bendigo: Lisa Chesters, ALP
Bruce: Alan Griffin, ALP
Calwell: Maria Vamvakinou, ALP
Casey: Tony Smith, LIB
Chisholm: Anna Burke, ALP
Corangamite: Sarah Henderson, LIB (win from ALP)
Corio: Richard Marles, ALP
Deakin: Mike Symon, ALP
Dunkley: Bruce Billson, LIB
Flinders: Greg Hunt, LIB
Gellibrand: Tim Watts, ALP (new member)
Gippsland: Darren Chester, NAT
Goldstein: Andrew Robb, LIB
Gorton: Brendan O'Connor, ALP
Higgins: Kelly O'Dwyer, LIB
Holt: Anthony Byrne, ALP
Hotham: Clare O'Neil, ALP (new member)
Indi: Sophie Mirabella, LIB (TRAGIC)
Isaacs: Mark Dreyfus, ALP
Jagajaga: Jenny Macklin, ALP (BTW, the PUP candidate's name is Kitten Leigh Snape.)
Kooyong: Josh Frydenberg, LIB
LaTrobe: Laura Smyth, ALP
Lalor: Joanne Ryan, ALP
Mallee: Andrew Broad, NAT
Maribyrnong: Bill Shorten, ALP
McEwen: Rob Mitchell, ALP
McMillan: Russell Broadbent, LIB
Melbourne: Cath Bowtell, ALP (win from Greens)
Melbourne Ports: Michael Danby, ALP
Menzies: Kevin Andrews, LIB
Murray: Sharman Stone, LIB
Scullin: Andrew Giles, ALP (new member)
Wannon: Dan Tehan, LIB
Wills: Kelvin Thomson, ALP

Change: Plus 1 Liberal form Labor, Plus 1 Labor from Greens, overall LIB+1, GRN-1

Seats to watch: Aston, Bendigo, Bruce, Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, Indi, LaTrobe, Mallee, McEwen, Melbourne

[Platypus]

New South Wales

Banks: David Coleman, LIB (win from ALP)
Barton: Steve McMahon, ALP (new member)
Bennelong: John Alexander, LIB
Berowra: Phillip Ruddock, LIB
Blaxland: Jason Clare, ALP
Bradfield: Paul Fletcher, LIB
Calare: John Cobb, NAT
Charlton: Pat Conroy, ALP (new member)
Chifley: Ed Husic, ALP
Cook: Scott Morrison, LIB
Cowper: Luke Hartsuyker, NAT
Cunningham: Sharon Bird, ALP
Dobell: Karen McNamara, LIB (win from IND elected as ALP)
Eden-Monaro: Mike Kelly, ALP
Farrer: Sussan Ley, LIB
Fowler: Chris Hayes, ALP
Gilmore: Ann Sudmaris, LIB (new member)
Grayndler: Anthony Albanese, ALP
Greenway: Michelle Rowland, ALP
Hughes: Craig Kelly, LIB
Hume: Angus Taylor, LIB (new member, and one to watch)
Hunter: Joel Fitzgibbon, ALP
Kingsford Smith: Matt Thistlethwaite, ALP (new member)
Lindsay: Fiona Scott, LIB (win from ALP)
Lyne: David Gillespie, NAT (win from IND)
Macarthur: Russell Matheson, LIB
Mackellar: Bronwyn Bishop, LIB
Macquarie: Louise Markus, LIB
McMahon: Chris Bowen, ALP
Mitchell: Alex Hawke, LIB
New England: Barnaby Joyce, NAT (win from IND)
Newcastle: Sharon Claydon, ALP
North Sydney: Joe Hockey, LIB
Page: Janelle Saffin, ALP
Parkes: Mark Coulton, NAT
Parramatta: Julie Owens, ALP
Paterson: Bob Baldwin, LIB
Reid: Craig Laundy, LIB (win from ALP)
Richmond: Justine Elliot, ALP
Riverina: Michael McCormack, NAT
Robertson: Lucy Wicks, LIB (win from ALP)
Shortland: Jill Hall, ALP
Sydney: Tanya Plibersek, ALP
Throsby: Stephen Jones, ALP
Warringah: Tony Abbott, LIB
Watson: Tony Burke, ALP
Wentworth: Malcolm Turnbull, LIB
Werriwa: Laurie Ferguson, ALP

Change: 2 National gains from Independents, 4 Liberal gains from Labor, 1 Liberal gain from an Independent elected as ALP. LIB +5 NAT +2

Seats to watch: Banks, Barton, Bennelong, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Greenway, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Macquarie, Page, Parramatta, Reid, Robertson, Werriwa

Australian Capital Territory

Canberra: Gai Brodtmann, ALP
Fraser: Andrew Leigh, ALP

Change: 0 seats

Seats to watch: none (well, maybe the second Senator. I still think Seselja will get it, despite the Sneate calculator )

Queensland

Blair: Shayne Neumann, ALP
Bonner: Ross Vasta, LNP
Bowman: andrew Laming, LNP
Brisbane: Fiona McNamara, ALP (win from LNP)
Capricornia: Peter Freeleagus, ALP (new member)
Dawson: George Christensen, LNP
Dickson: Peter Dutton, LNP
Fadden: Stuart Robert, LNP
Fairfax: Ted O'Brien, LNP (new member)
Fisher: Mal Brough, LNP (gain from Ind, but elected as LNP)
Flynn: Ken O'Dowd, LNP
Forde: Peter Beattie, ALP (win from LNP)
Griffith: Kevin Rudd, ALP
Groom: Ian Macfarlane, LNP
Herbert: Ewen Jones, LNP
Hinkler: Keith Pitt, LNP (new member)
Kennedy: Bob Katter, KAP
Leichhardt: Warren Entsch, LNP
Lilley: Wayne Swan, ALP
Longman: Wyatt Roy, LNP
Maranoa: Bruce Scott, LNP
McPherson: Karen Andrews, LNP
Moncreiff: Steve Ciobo, LNP
Moreton: Graham Perrett, ALP
Oxley: Bernie Rippoll, ALP
Petrie: Yvette D'Ath, ALP
Rankin: Jim Chalmers, ALP (new member, and one to watch)
Ryan: Jane Prentice, LNP
Wide Bay: Warren Truss, LNP
Wright: Scott Buchholz, LNP

Change: Labor gain two from the LNP, LNP win back Fisher. ALP+2

Seats to watch: Blair, Bonner, Brisbane, Dawson, Fairfax, Fisher, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Longman, Moreton, Petrie.

[Platypus]

morgieB: Yep. Angus Taylor in Hume, for example, is set to be a superstar if he wants to be.

TOTALS:

WA

Coalition: 12
Labor: 3

NT

Coalition: 1
Labor: 1

SA

Coalition: 5
Labor: 6

TAS:

Coalition: 1
Labor: 3
Independent: 1

VIC:

Coalition: 15
Labor: 22

NSW:

Coalition: 27
Labor: 21

ACT:

Coalition: 0
Labor: 2

QLD:

Coalition: 19
Labor: 10
Katter's Australian Party: 1

National:

Coalition: 80
Labor: 68
Katter's Australian Party: 1
Independent: 1

[Platypus]

Meh. Maybe in Victoria. Maybe with Greenway. Otherwise I'm keeping it til the final prediction.

[Platypus]

I believe undecideds will break pretty evenly this time, which makes me think the real figure is more 51-49 to 53-47 than it is 53-47 to 55-45.

[Platypus]

I think all polling is given wayyyy to much value in general, including on here. You're always better off looking at the demographics of a seat and the general trends in different groups than on polling.

But, the high other vote is essentially inflated because of the significant distaste in the electorate for both Labor and Abbott (note, not Rudd and Abbott or Labor and Coalition).

I'd say that ultimately the breakdown will be closer to

48% Coalition
38% Labor
9% Green
5% Other (which is still very high, really)

leading to a TPP of about 52-48.

But I think that this election won't have a real national trend. I see the Coalition massacring Labor in Sydney, but nationally it'll be pretty even. The Coalition will win Australia excluding Sydney about 51-49, but if the rural vote for Labor increases as expected, and WA, QLD and SA are better than I expect for Labor (which seems to be your view?) it could even be 50-50. But Sydney will be 54-46 Coalition, which considering even in 2004 it was the opposite, is pretty indicative of where the issue is. Labor have destroyed themselves in Sydney, both at state and federal level, and while the media there has played a part ultimately it's Labor's own fault.

Interestingly enough, Alan Jones gets something like 28% of the listening audience in his timeslot. Similar right-wing talkback shows get about 10% in the other capitals, except Melbourne, where they struggle to break 4%. Melbourne's influenced by Neil Mitchell though, who sucks up a lot of the right wing but isn't as ridiculous as Jones.

My figures are all from memory, btw

[Platypus]

Exactly. There are, at an absolute maximum, 18 seats I have as Labor that could go coalition - Lingiari, Blair, Brisbane, Forde, Moreton, Bass, Lyons, Chisholm, Deakin, LaTrobe, McEwen, Barton, Eden-Monaro, Greenway, Kingsford Smith, Page, Parramatta, Werriwa. If they get them all, that's a bloodbath. If they get ten of them, it's a landslide. But I'm confident in my predictions, and there's only eight that could go to the coalition in my final prediction if this week is particularly bad for Labor - Brisbane, Forde, Bass, Deakin, LaTrobe, Greenway, Parramatta, and Werriwa.

Oh, and Melbourne could be Greens.

88 is a strong win, and probably about the point at which it's unrecoverable for Labor at the next election - but a 13 seat changeover is certainly within the realms of real possibility, and that's the max cushion the coalition can have.

[Platypus]

I would say yes, Rudd would go, but I have a feeling there might be a chance of hardcore obstructionism trying to get a DD about the carbon tax. Labor would love that, and if they think it's possible, Rudd would probably try to hold on.

BUT I don't think he actually could.

[Platypus]

Every genuinely neutral outisde observer would think we're mad if we elect the Coalition, right?

[Platypus]

[Platypus]

It's a Spring miracle!

As for LaTrobe, it's in my handful of seats to keep watching before I lock in my final prediction.  It's borderline, I think.

[Platypus]

I'm comfortable enough with Kennedy staying in Katter's hands, but Denison I would like to see more polling in. If the national mood wasn't for a change of government, I think it would be a lean to Labor, but as that isn't the case, I assume Wilkie will hold on. But it's all on gut, having done any proper analysis.

[Platypus]

I never understood the rancour over the pie thing. He was short-tempered, but compared to things like Abbott punching walls next to people's heads, it's nothing

[Platypus]

If I could choose, i'd go with Mark Dreyfus. He's not a great professional politician, but he's a very smart, very hard-working, and easily trusted man. Put him in, give him 6 years as opposition leader, and save the Labor Party.