Australia - 7 September 2013

[Platypus]

Following the good people line, undecided Victorians will break more heavily ALP than the rest of the country, which is why Deakin and LaTrobe are hard to predict - I suspect both have abnormally high levels of swinging voters, and both will break Labor relative to the nation. But the question is how big that gap will be.

[Platypus]

Absolutely a lefty bias, but SO DAMN CORRECT:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/04/tony-abbott-daughters-big-brother

[Platypus]

I hope this is geoblocked, because it is the most uncomfortable 31 minutes in history:

http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/42132

[Platypus]

I can see very large (6-8%) swings in Makin and Wakefield, probably not enough for the seats to fall though. Maybe Wakefield if it truly is a bloodbath.

For Port Adelaide, also a large swing is on the cards, 5-6%.

Adelaide, Hindmarsh, and Kingston are looking more like 3-5%. Hindmarsh could fall, the others are unlikely.

[Platypus]

Libs have released their uncosted costings, nothing savaged except foreign aid.

Not helpful to Seselja though, as along with the 12000 job cuts the Libs want a further efficiency dividend. Any public servants still undecided will jump into Labor and the Greens now I suspect.

[Platypus]

There have been plenty of complaints, but not so much about the endorsements - that's all part of the process, and the papers can endorse whoever they want - but more about the ongoing coverage from certain papers. Particularly, and unsurprisingly, the Murdoch-owned ones, and particularly the Murdoch-owned tabloids, and particularly the Murdoch-owned tabloid in Sydney...

[Platypus]

Here they certainly don't always go for the Coalition. But it's very rare for the Murdoch papers to evenly split their endorsements

[Platypus]

A not particularly political friend of mine's summary of the choice:

Red: spending, fast internet, trains, xenophobic-ish treatment of refugees, climate change exists. Narcissitic control freak, speaks Mandarin, trained diplomat, tries to understand younger demographics, has a way with and control over words.

Blue: spending not so much, much slower fast internet, roads (cause we really need more cars), even more xenophobic treatment of refugees, climate change kind of exists. Rigid conservative values, monoglot, might not like females on a subconscious level, been described as someone who “will do anything to be in government”, either too controlled or not controlled enough with what he says (has said many stupid things).

Bang on

[Platypus]

No, Labor are staying out of Greenway and keeping schtum. They want the seat to be alllllll about Diaz.

[Platypus]

Well, obviously, but I mean in terms of the key labor figures.

[Platypus]

IKR?

[Platypus]

Not particularly important, or reliable, but the Guardian Lonergan poll is 50.8-49.2.

Anyway, we're at the point that anyone who predicts the coalition with less than 80 or more than 90 is probably a hack

[Platypus]

I thought this was pretty good too:

howfastisthenbn.com.au

[Platypus]

Very, very proud of my cousin. Went and waited in line for 80 minutes to vote for Cathy McGowan in Indi at the Australian High Commission in Singapore.

[Platypus]

As for Senate, expect to wait days, maybe weeks

[Platypus]

ABC will be open, both TV and Radio.

If you're ideologically opposed to public broadcasting, I think 9 is the best of the commercial networks, and ought to be open.

----------------

First exit poll released by Morgan. Coalition 52-48 ALP.

Useless but fun

[Platypus]

Gif is from Survivor

Anyway, useless news from Labor mate is Victoria is simply not swinging, but Queensland is, and to the coalition.

But then again, others seem to think the swing is on in Victoria.

Either way, everyone seems entirely convinced there is no chance of anything other than a coalition majority.

[Platypus]

East coast, yep

[Platypus]

$20 I think? Less that an hour at minimum wage, but still.

Excuses: dunno.

[Platypus]

$20 I think? Less that an hour at minimum wage, but still.

Excuses: dunno.

Is it enforced Australia-wide, or does it vary by state, district etc. ?

It's all done by the AEC, so federally. But those who live more than a certain distance from a polling booth are not required to vote (I think 30kms? 90?) which is why you have booths like this one:

http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/website/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-15508-3721.htm

[Platypus]

ABC. Of course

[Platypus]

Albanese seems to be the name getting thrown around as the sacrificial lamb, actually.

Which is exactly the wrong way to go about it, but that's Labor for you.

[Platypus]

Indeed it is. Labor had it's flaws and it's unpopularity, but Rudd's personal faults, chaotic nature and undisciplined hijacking of the campaign, may have cost them seats. I think Crean - boring, sombre and tedious Crean, the opposite of the chaotic Rudd, would have given Labor the seriousness they needed.

I'm not going to disagree with this.

It's why I'm quite keen on the idea of whoever Labor choose being one of their calmer figures, and giving that person a full two terms to win back the lodge.

I choose Mark Dreyfus over the rest of the ministry, and while it'll never happen, I'm confident it would be the right way to go about it.

[Platypus]

Nope. Even Latham can be right sometimes

[Platypus]

Andrews has very little media profile, but quite frankly the opposition in Victoria never does. There's about 5 minutes total airtime on TV available to state politicians every week, and unless there's been a major  up almost all of it will go to the Premier or the Lord Mayor or Melbourne.

-----------------

Conroy is basically a factional warlord who hates the idea of the party membership getting a say and him losing part of his ridiculous amount of power. Sometimes I admire Conroy, but on this issue he's being an absolute turd.