2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

LOL VA-10 TX-31 TX-10 and TX-24

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

RRH thinks Democrats will holds the house and their current range is a GOP again of 16 to a democratic gain of 4. That makes sense to me. Does anyone actually think democrats are going to hold all their Trump seats in a presidential year? Come on. Atlas it the one in denial.

I think most people expect Democrats to lose seats on the aggregate, but not that much. MN-7, NJ-7, and GA-6 are not tossups, and they seem to agree with the Politician School of Thought on Texas being a solidly Republican state and that 2018 was a fluke.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Junk polls! Politician has assured me that 2016 and 2018 were two offs and that ancestrally Democratic WI-03 is safe D and that ancestrally Republican CA-45 will be hyper competitive!

Evers carried that district. It might not be as strongly Democratic as it was 10 years ago but it still leans that way.

He barely carried WI-03. It was something like a two point Evers win. Hardly D leaning when you consider it nearly matched the statewide results

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

GOP’s Top Recruits jump in for #NM02 (Oil exec and member of wealthy NM family Claire Chase) and #IN05 State treasurer Kelly Mitchell

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/more-republican-women-ever-are-planning-run-office-n1022376

Head of Yale campaign school says, “we’ve never seen anything like this before.” Regarding the number of republican women running for office.

The Stefanik effect?

Well when less than 10% of Republican Congresspeople are women, that's a pretty low bar

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Republicans want to drop money on TX-7, TX-32, MN-3, CA-48, CA-39 and CA-25 instead of seats like WI-3, PA-8, IL-17, IA-2 and ME-2 then go right ahead

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th? Even if they somehow win it in 2020 that means they have to play juggle incumbents around instead of just creating the neccesary 4th D sink in Houston.

Because half the party thinks Texas 2016 and 2018 was a two-time fluke whereas the saner half that is trying to sound the alarm on Texas is getting ignored completely.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Why is the GOP obsessed with winning Texas 7th?

Because a lot of Republican stategists are completely oblivious to reality. The NRSC and NRCC are two of the greatest Democratic assets.

Yeah! it is sooo crazy to think a Clinton +1 plurality district is remotely competitive. Obvious Safe D. Safer than NY14 because the trends are so fast obviously.

Going from Romney +22 to Clinton +1 to Beto +9 in six years is pretty fast if you ask me

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Elizabeth Warren endorsed Jessica Cisneros. Hopefully this starts a cascade

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Elizabeth Warren endorsed Jessica Cisneros. Hopefully this starts a cascade

She endorsed Marie Newman (running against Lipinski in IL-03) as well:

https://twitter.com/rollcall/status/1171108104609705984

If Newman wins, the Democratic Party will continue its descent into being the party of the woke, "wine-track" liberals, rather than a party with room for ideological diversity and for social moderation.

I don't have a problem with ideological diversity, so long as it's not in deep blue seats. I'm all for nominating pro-life Democrats in races that necessitate it, like MS-Gov, LA-Gov, WV-Sen, etc.

And for all the Republicans that claim to hate the Kennedy family, the Lipinskis are just about as repulsive as a family.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Overweight trailed in his own internal poll by 9%? Lmao

Edit: keeping this since autocorrect made a funny

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republican Janet Baresi has entered the race in OK-05 against Kendra Horn. Baresi is a former dentist and state school superintendent.

The GOP nominee here is basically 99% likely to be a woman. All 4 major candidates are women.

Once a man jumps in, that number will fall to zero

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republican Janet Baresi has entered the race in OK-05 against Kendra Horn. Baresi is a former dentist and state school superintendent.

The GOP nominee here is basically 99% likely to be a woman. All 4 major candidates are women.

Once a man jumps in, that number will fall to zero

Fact check: false.

It’s really just simple math. If a dude jumps in, the women are going to split the female Republican vote amongst themselves, but go ahead and doubt me

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republican Janet Baresi has entered the race in OK-05 against Kendra Horn. Baresi is a former dentist and state school superintendent.

The GOP nominee here is basically 99% likely to be a woman. All 4 major candidates are women.

Once a man jumps in, that number will fall to zero

Fact check: false.

It’s really just simple math. If a dude jumps in, the women are going to split the female Republican vote amongst themselves, but go ahead and doubt me

If voters actually voted based on gender like that, sure.

How naïve to think gender isn’t a factor, especially in a Republican primary

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republican Janet Baresi has entered the race in OK-05 against Kendra Horn. Baresi is a former dentist and state school superintendent.

The GOP nominee here is basically 99% likely to be a woman. All 4 major candidates are women.

Once a man jumps in, that number will fall to zero

Fact check: false.

It’s really just simple math. If a dude jumps in, the women are going to split the female Republican vote amongst themselves, but go ahead and doubt me

If voters actually voted based on gender like that, sure.

How naïve to think gender isn’t a factor, especially in a Republican primary

Republicans nominated a woman in WV-03 of all places.

She was the ONLY woman running and won the primary with 23% of the vote. Of the 10 Republican women you could have used as your “exceptions to the rule”, you chose the single worst one

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republican Janet Baresi has entered the race in OK-05 against Kendra Horn. Baresi is a former dentist and state school superintendent.

The GOP nominee here is basically 99% likely to be a woman. All 4 major candidates are women.

Once a man jumps in, that number will fall to zero

Fact check: false.

It’s really just simple math. If a dude jumps in, the women are going to split the female Republican vote amongst themselves, but go ahead and doubt me

If voters actually voted based on gender like that, sure.

How naïve to think gender isn’t a factor, especially in a Republican primary

Republicans nominated a woman in WV-03 of all places.

She was the ONLY woman running and won the primary with 23% of the vote. Of the 10 Republican women you could have used as your “exceptions to the rule”, you chose the single worst one

Yes, but don't you constantly spout about how misogynistic WV is?

Other "misogynistic" "racist hick" districts such as IN-02, WY-AL, AL-02, TX-12, NY-21, and WA-05 elected Republican women, it's not just suburbs lol.

That’s cute. You don’t think gender or sexism has anything to do with the fact that less than  10% of the Republican caucus is female

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republican Janet Baresi has entered the race in OK-05 against Kendra Horn. Baresi is a former dentist and state school superintendent.

The GOP nominee here is basically 99% likely to be a woman. All 4 major candidates are women.

Once a man jumps in, that number will fall to zero

Fact check: false.

It’s really just simple math. If a dude jumps in, the women are going to split the female Republican vote amongst themselves, but go ahead and doubt me

If voters actually voted based on gender like that, sure.

How naïve to think gender isn’t a factor, especially in a Republican primary

Is Warren winning almost all women? Are Biden and Sanders winning almost all men? Did Hillary in 2016 win most of the female vote and Sanders win most of the male vote?

We’re talking about a Republican primary in Oklahoma here, not a Democratic Presidential primary (where women are notably getting only about 30% of the combined vote). Try to stay on topic here.

You people must not have heard of clown cars before

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republican Janet Baresi has entered the race in OK-05 against Kendra Horn. Baresi is a former dentist and state school superintendent.

The GOP nominee here is basically 99% likely to be a woman. All 4 major candidates are women.

Once a man jumps in, that number will fall to zero

Fact check: false.

It’s really just simple math. If a dude jumps in, the women are going to split the female Republican vote amongst themselves, but go ahead and doubt me

If voters actually voted based on gender like that, sure.

How naïve to think gender isn’t a factor, especially in a Republican primary

Republicans nominated a woman in WV-03 of all places.

She was the ONLY woman running and won the primary with 23% of the vote. Of the 10 Republican women you could have used as your “exceptions to the rule”, you chose the single worst one

Yes, but don't you constantly spout about how misogynistic WV is?

Other "misogynistic" "racist hick" districts such as IN-02, WY-AL, AL-02, TX-12, NY-21, and WA-05 elected Republican women, it's not just suburbs lol.

That’s cute. You don’t think gender or sexism has anything to do with the fact that less than  10% of the Republican caucus is female

You aren't very good at mathematical probability. If the 4 main GOP candidates are women, there is a 99%+ chance the GOP nominee will be a woman. If 4/5 are women, there is an 70%+ chance the GOP nominee will be a woman.

That’s not how this whole politics thing works dude, but you’re not very good at it anyway

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Who knew that Democrats on this website would be jumping to defend the Republican Party from charges of sexism when <10% of Republican Congress people are women

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Who knew that Democrats on this website would be jumping to defend the Republican Party from charges of sexism when <10% of Republican Congress people are women

It's not like 27/40 of the GOP potential nominees in battleground districts are women...

Also implied, 39/40 potential GOP nominees in battleground seats are men

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1179753067195097090

These are all districts only slightly right of the national median. You would expect impeachment to not be an anchor on Dems in these seats based on current national polling

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Van Drew also didn’t run any negative ads, so I doubt the electorate was as well versed in Grossman’s problems as Twitter nerds were

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republican challenger to Allred raises $475 thousand.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1181672420169662465

Very impressive.

This is also impressive.

Idk how to link tweets, but Maria Elvira Salazar raises over 500k in less than 2 months.

So Republicans are relying on Hillary Clinton districts that are flying left fast as hell to win back the House? Bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see how it pays off

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Changes in favor of Democrats:
IA (Ernst): Likely R->Lean R
NC (Tillis): Tilt R->Tossup

Changes in favor of Republicans:
GA-A (Perdue): Lean R->Likely R
GA-B (Isakson): Lean R->Likely R

http://insideelections.com/ratings/senate

Seems fair.

There is nothing that's happened to suggest the Georgia races have become more favorable to Republicans. Seems like a shallow blatant attempt to "appear reasoned and balanced" by not moving races to only one of the parties.