GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

Atlas seems to have this weird obsession with GA being a safe R state and VA, IA and OH being quintessential swing states

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Atlas seems to have this weird obsession with GA being a safe R state and VA, IA and OH being quintessential swing states

Well, as soon as inevitable Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren starts talking about kitchen table issues, GA/IA/VA/TX/ME will instantaneously trend back to the other party and vote like they did in 2012 (FL like 2004 tho) and everyone and their mother will be happy again.

As opposed to TX/KS/UT/ME/RI flipping simultaneously because of WWC trends and suburban trends?

Can you please point out to me where anyone has suggested that they will all flip up simultaneously? Or even point out to me where people have said Kansas and UT will flip? I know some of the blue avatar lunatics have made circle jerk threads about RI going Trump, but not anyone serious

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

No it doesn't. Abrams also won GA-06 with an electorate that was less Democratic than 2016. The white voters in that district are done with the GOP. 

In the meantime, McBath is amazing at working suburban audiences, and black turnout will be huge with her on the ticket. She is an exceptional speaker with a powerful personal story. She will also raise a sh-t ton of money. She is the best alternative to Abrams. Meanwhile Tomlinson can work on getting out that South GA vote. And we will all be curbing voter suppression to the best of our abilities.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

I'm all in for Tomlinson/McBath 2020.

lol. Of course, any Democratic incumbent giving up their seat doesn't change anything, but all the Republicans retiring in Texas and elsewhere makes those seats more competitive. But I realize I'm talking to people who view any Republican improvement from 2018 as impossible, so what do I expect.

The less extreme view is that McBath is one of the best gets for the DSCC and she might be operating in the view that this could be the year the dam finally breaks in georgia, so might as well take that shot at a valuable Senate seat when opportunities are pretty rare.

It probably hurts Dems in GA-06 a little, but that seat is also zooming left anyway and Trump will probably lose it

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

State Education board member Nikki Snyder (No relation to Gov. Rick Snyder) considering jumping in to take on Slotkin in Trump +7 seat, ex-Rep. Bishop encouraging the young, dynamic candidate to run.

https://www.lansingcitypulse.com/stories/slotkin-opens-up-to-possible-trump-impeachment,13311

That’s a game changer for the GA Senate race

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This chick is supposed to do a lot better than Trump in “suburbs” because...?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Wouldn't be surprised if she's forced to drop out after this

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Is Loeffler the worst appointment of all-time?

She’s certainly giving McSally a run for her money.

The hubris astounds me. Republicans are trying to do everything they can to lose these states it seems

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Loeffler apparently caught for insider trading.

https://twitter.com/noahshachtman/status/1240803599086731265?s=21

Honestly, this isnt good news in terms of the Senate race. Basically solidifies that Collins ( the stronger candidate) will be republican.

They're both weak General Election candidates. The GOP will slide even further in the suburbs with Collins.

Collins is actually a solid candidate for the general. Think of it this way-- if Trump wins, so does Collins, and I could envision him outrunning Trump a bit. I can not say the same of Loeffler, particularly after this.

The GOP is already max'xed out in the rurals, whereas they still have room for decline in the cities and suburbs.  Collins isn't exactly the type who can recover the GOP share of urban and suburban votes, whereas a non-corrupt Loeffler could help make up the difference.

And before you bring up Brian Kemp, he had his own unique style of campaigning.

#hottake: Kelly Loeffler would almost definitely lose to Warnock if she went to the runoff after this

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Loeffler apparently caught for insider trading.

https://twitter.com/noahshachtman/status/1240803599086731265?s=21

Honestly, this isnt good news in terms of the Senate race. Basically solidifies that Collins ( the stronger candidate) will be republican.

They're both weak General Election candidates. The GOP will slide even further in the suburbs with Collins.

Collins is actually a solid candidate for the general. Think of it this way-- if Trump wins, so does Collins, and I could envision him outrunning Trump a bit. I can not say the same of Loeffler, particularly after this.

The GOP is already max'xed out in the rurals, whereas they still have room for decline in the cities and suburbs.  Collins isn't exactly the type who can recover the GOP share of urban and suburban votes, whereas a non-corrupt Loeffler could help make up the difference.

And before you bring up Brian Kemp, he had his own unique style of campaigning.

#hottake: Kelly Loeffler would almost definitely lose to Warnock if she went to the runoff after this

Why is this a hot take? I'd say she is more likely to be criminally prosecuted than win a full term after this lol

Because some people in this thread think the fact that she has a vagina gives her “unique appeal” to the suburbs

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Loeffler apparently caught for insider trading.

https://twitter.com/noahshachtman/status/1240803599086731265?s=21

Honestly, this isnt good news in terms of the Senate race. Basically solidifies that Collins ( the stronger candidate) will be republican.

They're both weak General Election candidates. The GOP will slide even further in the suburbs with Collins.

Collins is actually a solid candidate for the general. Think of it this way-- if Trump wins, so does Collins, and I could envision him outrunning Trump a bit. I can not say the same of Loeffler, particularly after this.

Collins would be toxic in the suburbs.

No moreso than Trump presumably.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

She might go down as the single worst candidate in recent history. Kemp is such an idiot for appointing her.

Roy Moore will claim that title for at least the next 20 years

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

She might go down as the single worst candidate in recent history. Kemp is such an idiot for appointing her.

Roy Moore will claim that title for at least the next 20 years

Martha Coakley disagrees.

That's disingenuous, and I think you know it. If Martha Coakley was a credibly accused pedophile, she would have lost both her races by double digits. It really doesn't take much for a "moderate" Republican to win in a blue state--white liberals love them some RINOs. The Roy Moore saga was perhaps the one thing that could ever lead to a Democratic victory in Alabama.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

She might go down as the single worst candidate in recent history. Kemp is such an idiot for appointing her.

Roy Moore will claim that title for at least the next 20 years

Martha Coakley disagrees.

That's disingenuous, and I think you know it. If Martha Coakley was a credibly accused pedophile, she would have lost both her races by double digits. It really doesn't take much for a "moderate" Republican to win in a blue state--white liberals love them some RINOs. The Roy Moore saga was perhaps the one thing that could ever lead to a Democratic victory in Alabama.

I can't comment on Massachusetts, but Larry Hogan certainly did very well for a Republican among black voters in Maryland, in the 2018 gubernatorial election, and against a black Democrat (Ben Jealous), no less. His approvals have been very high among both white and black voters alike.

I was being facetious, but that's not my point. My point is that Roy Moore is probably the single worst candidate nominated by a major party for a high profile winnable race in recent memory (yes, this includes Todd Akin and Martha Coakley), and that even despite all of that, he still almost won in Alabama thanks to the R label.

I really don't see how this is debatable. If you take an Akin prototype and run him in AL-Sen in 2017, he wins. If Republican Martha Coakley runs in Alabama Senate 2017, she wins.

/end thread derail

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Is Loeffler trying to lose at this point? Her feud with the WNBA and Black Lives Matter is going to turn away any possible chance at *any* moderate Republicans voting for her.

She's trying to win hicks and become a conservative martyr to get into the runoff.

That's probably her only viable strategy to beat Collins for a spot, too. Portray herself as the victimized conservative willing to "stand up" to the left.