Rate TX-24 for 2020

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Tilt D. I’d bet money on Trump losing this seat and that will likely be enough to drag down the Republican. Third most likely GOP seat to flip after GA-7 (Lean/Likely D) and TX-23 (Lean D) in that order

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

the primary will be Kim Olson vs Candace Valenzuela (who was left out of the op for some reason?)

GE should be lean D, this district has moved left at an insane rate. I was shocked at how close it was in 2018 and I live here! Of course I voted for Marchant in 2018 because I am not a fan of McDowell, but I'll be voting for the D this time.

The possibility of Olson winning the primary is keeping me from moving it to Lean D. She’d probably blow it. With Valenzuela I think Lean D is fair

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Not to derail this thread, but we just had gubernatorial elections in which Democrats had huge hometown bounces. JBE won his home parish by 5% even though it went for Trump 64-32 and Jim Hood won his home Chickasaw County by 25%, and that was an Obama to Trump county

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign

I just love how you keep assuming 2020 will have a similar national environment as 2018 when it very likely will not

Trump could lose Texas by 5% and you’d still be clinging to your denial that Texas is a Likely R state going forward

If it makes you feel better though, this seat is probably now the fifth most likely GOP seat to flip now that the two NC districts are goners