Quinnipiac Wisconsin - Biden +6

[DS0816]

https://poll.qu.edu/

Biden - 50
Trump - 44

This is believable with Trump +6.

Trump would win the U.S. Popular Vote by +3—which ties in with carrying 31 states—and likewise Republican pickups of Michigan and Pennsylvania by +5 and +4. (Based on increments of +1 for where each state ranks. Of course, the margins spread can be a bit more or less.)

In 2020, with his Democratic pickup for U.S. President, and Democratic pickups of this trio of top bellwether states, Joe Biden underperformed his margins in all three states vs. his U.S. Popular Vote.

ELECTION 2020
◾️ U.S. Popular Vote: D+4.45
◾️ Michigan: D+2.78
◾️ Pennsylvania: D+1.17
◾️ Wisconsin: D+0.63

This was the first such occurrence—a Democratic winner who carried any of these three states—since 1944 (Pennsylvania and Michigan) and 1992 (Wisconsin).

I suspect, with a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President for Donald Trump, the margins in all three states—each a Republican pickup—will be higher than what he receives in the U.S. Popular Vote.

[DS0816]

Neither Trump +6 or Biden +6 are believable. It will be within one either way

I would not assume that.

An Election 2024 outcome in which Trump wins a Republican pickup for U.S. President and carries 31 states would be, as compared to Election 2020, a net gain of +6 states.

To win pickups of +6 states is usually in line with a national shift of an estimated +6 percentage points.

Biden’s constant struggle for 40 percent in his job approval would not translate to holding onto Wisconsin … and certainly not with a similar level margin he experienced in his 2020 Democratic pickup for U.S. President and this leading bellwether state.