The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2 (user search)
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  The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2  (Read 220377 times)
NOVA Green
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« on: November 02, 2017, 02:56:24 AM »

More from that Rand Paul interview I linked to upthread.....certainly sounds like Paul is not eager to challenge Trump himself in 2020:

http://www.thelibertyconservative.com/rand-paul-ive-spent-more-hours-with-the-president-than-any-other-senator/

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I'm really digging this new Rand Paul. A stunning return to form after the 2016 debacle.

Well obviously challenging an incumbent Republican President to a dual would not only be bad for his Presidential ambitions, but additionally open him up to political vulnerabilities in Kentucky should he choose to run for reelection in a State where Democrats can frequently win statewide elections....

Something tells me Rand is hedging his bets to avoid being "tea-bagged" from the Right in a Senate reelection Primary, and recognizing that his brand of Conservatism might be more popular out West and in Texas, than among Republican voters in the Southern and Appalachian regions of the Country...

Playing a pretty conservative "Hole Card" and will selectively buck the Pres, follow the Fav/Unfav numbers nationally and in KY, and see what the scene is at in another year or so, while meanwhile racking up $$$ for his future Senate reelection campaign....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2017, 08:42:23 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2017, 08:44:55 PM by NOVA Green »

Vanity Fair has a lengthy profile of Steve Bannon, including the news that he might run for president in 2020 if Trump drops out of the race:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12/bannon-for-president-trump-kushner-ivanka

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Jesus no
Bannon would lose in a landslide, so.... Jesus yes!

So way back in late '15 when Trump's was starting to look like he might have a chance as a contender for the Republican Presidential nomination, I told my wife, this is likely the start of the "Republican Civil War".

As Trump's forces advanced through the South, after vanquishing his key rivals, the pushback grew, but still the Country Club Republicans and business classes couldn't stop his advance.

The establishment resistance becomes more vocal, but they realize their fate is sealed, and that their "base voters" have spoken.

Suddenly Access Hollywood hits, and 'Pub pols panic, realizing they might lose the election by 10%... Additional 'Pubs speak out against Trump, making their names onto his "enemies list" or those Republicans to potentially be "purged" from the Party.

Things change dramatically in the Fall, the Pres election race tightens up, and while HRC is busy regurgitating what most Americans already realize about Trump's moral character and attitudes, he's consistently pressing an isolationist economic protectionist and anti-interventionist message.

Major segments of the Democratic base stay home or defect to 3rd Party candidates in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, because of a combination of of believing these states were safe Democrat as well as underestimation of the anger of many Obama 1x/2x voters that voted W. at least once in '00/'04 that didn't feel that their personal economic situation had improved after Obama, despite recognizing the massive wreckage originated from George W. Bush policies.

Trump wins, but the Republican Civil War is not over.... now it slips into the terrain of Guerrilla Warfare. They own the House and Senate, now how can we bring Trump to heel?

Still hasn't happened yet, but by kissing the ring of Caesar (Trump), they are for better or worse wedded to him and his political fortunes in the eyes of the voters.

The Republican Civil War still has continued under the Trump Reign, as the Purges have caused various Republican Senators from Flake to Coorker to resignation, not to mention the shocking number of House Republicans retiring rather than risk losing reelection in 2018.

The Bannon/Trump element of the Republican Civil War is perhaps a skirmish somewhat akin to a potential "Night of the Long Knives" scenario, now that apparently the Trumpista element of the Party has cowed and intimated dissident wings into submission.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Long_Knives

I for one would welcome a Steve Bannon run for President of the United States under a Republican Party ticket.

Not that I'm at all a fan of the guy, but what he can and would likely call out is the hypocrisy of Trump backing all of these sell out Tax Cuts for the Rich and Multinational Corporations, while the rest of us get the shaft.

Trump basically screwed his own base over with this pile of elephant dung, and looks just as much like a corporate whore as any other Republican out there these days as a result.

Honestly, looking at the Alabama precinct results, I'm wondering to what extent this Give-to-the-Rich Tax bill, played a factor in low Republican turnout in Alabama, especially among older White voters in the State....

So, here's a song: "English Civil War" based upon an old historical English folk anthem, where for the past two years I mentally switch the lyrics from "English" to "Republican"...

I encourage all of you to buy not only the song, but also the various album's from the Band, as I own just about every Clash album on either cassette or CD format.

You too can be sitting there at work listing to the soundtrack of "English Civil War" on your smartphone, and just substituting mentally "Republican" for "English"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJiiwulcTe4


Lyrics:


When Johnny comes
Marching home again
He's coming by bus or underground
A woman's eye will shed a tear
To see his face so beaten in fear
An' it was just around the corner in the English civil war

It was still at the stage of clubs and fists
When that well-known face got beaten to bits
Your face was blue in the light of the screen
As we watched the speech of an animal scream
The new party army was marching right over our heads

Alright

There you are, ha ha, I told you so
Says everybody that we know
But who hid a radio under the stairs
An' who got caught out on their unawares?
When that new party army came marching right up the stairs

When johnny comes marching home again
Nobody understands it can happen again
The sun is shining an' the kids are shouting loud
But you gotta know it's shining through a crack in the cloud
And the shadows keep falling when Johnny comes marching home

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2 on: December 25, 2017, 03:56:50 AM »

Eh, he has nothing to lose, so I don't see why he wouldn't either challenge Trump in the primary or run as an indy in the general.

you think we'll see more than one challenger to Trump in the primary? Meaning potentially Kasich, Flake, Corker, and whoever else might want to.
Potentially, but if that's the case, they're all going to get 4-5% each and just split the anti-Trump vote, easily allowing him to win.

Trump's a huge pile of elephant dung, but perhaps the best they got after George W. Bush screwed us working-class folks over on the economy and the BS War in Iraq....

Don't seem like Trump's actually playing that well, even in heavily Republican parts of the Country, such as Baldwin County, Alabama....

Anyone thinking that Trump has magical coattails, I want to take a hit off that Opium Pipe that y'all are puffin' on staring at faded posters of Paul Ryan in your parents basements while endlessly rereading Ayn Rand....

Those of us that actually work for a living in the factories and shops, are fed up with this crap, and 2020 can't come soon enough.

Unfortunately Flake is trapped with a Republican brand where the State is going to flip hard Dem, and the Nut 'Pub would likely beat him in the Primary, so WTF....

Still, voting for a massive tax raise for working and Middle-Class Arizona voters, likely will screw the Party for quite a few election cycles.....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2018, 03:29:12 AM »

Jeff Merkley speaking on MSNBC this evening on Trump's Supreme Court nominee...

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/democrats-see-trump-pick-of-kavanaugh-as-act-of-self-preservation-1274380867776?playlist=associated
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2018, 12:11:58 AM »


Merkley should do just fine in Polk County, Iowa...

Although a ton of Atlas posters don't get it, there are tons of similarities when it comes to "downstate Oregon" heavily agricultural and dairy, and many other early primary states in the US...

In addition to the Oregon agricultural "downstate" roots, we also see similarities when it comes to the manufacturing sector, including skilled manufacturing workers in machine and tooling intensive occupations....

Oregon has one of the highest percentage of workers in the US directly employed in manufacturing and production related occupations and industries to the present day....

Additionally, as I have posted on many threads on Atlas regarding questions such as "why isn't Oregon a giant Free-Trade state considering the "Smith & Ricardo theoretical "apples and oranges false dichotomy", fundamentally Oregonians have been screwed over for decades when it comes to "free trade" from the Timber Industry to the Tech Sector...

We are tired of being screwed over by Democratic and Republican Politicians alike that sacrifice our jobs, devastate our communities, destroy the environment, suppress and massacre rural agricultural workers globally, and then hide behind the sacred "Altar of Free Trade".

Enough is enough, and a "Prairie Populist" style message will still resonate from our communities and a faux populist Trump style message doesn't play so well in the small mill towns where I come from: "roots of my raising run deep"....

Merkley----Welcome to Polk County Iowa and I'm sure you will hit it out of the ballpark!!!!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2018, 03:53:13 AM »

I really like Merkley and he seems to be going for it, but I do wonder what his name recognition is like outside of Oregon? Even compared to people like Tim Ryan or Julian Castro he’s not exactly well known and if there is a crowded field surely that would count against him?

Good question, but at the same time one must question to what extent the "well known" factor actually plays a role when it comes not only to Democratic Party Nominations in recent years, but perhaps more significantly winning Democratic Presidential candidates....

How well known was Bill Clinton back in '92 when he ran for the nomination of the Democratic Party?

How well known was Barack Obama back in '08 when he ran for the nomination of the Democratic Party?

How well known were Presidential Candidates Gore, Kerry, and HRC when they ran prior to winning the Democratic nominations in '00/'04/'16 respectively and ended up losing Presidential Elections?

How well known as Bernie Sanders back in '16, who might well have actually out-performed HRC in a Trump vs Sanders matchup?

I don't believe that being relatively unknown over the past ~30 Years is actually a detriment at all for Democratic Presidential Candidates (Perhaps quite the opposite honestly) when it comes to successfully winning a GE PRES campaign.

Key problem for Merkley would be getting over the name recognition hump versus heavy weights on the Progressive Dem side of the Party, surviving the early primaries, closing the deal with Dem Primary voters and sympathetic Indies, to be able to compete successfully against DJT running for reelection running virtually unopposed (Maybe Huh).

I really don't think much of the current Democratic Party "crop" with name recognition (Warren, Booker, etc....) would likely perform well in a GE Environment.... Only exception might well be Biden....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 08:12:34 PM »


Merkley has been doing a "stealth roll" in Iowa to support local DEM candidates, post "Steak BBQ"...

Looks like he hit Cedar Rapids (Linn County) plus Jasper County (Newton) as well...

https://www.newtondailynews.com/2018/10/01/oregon-senator-fires-up-iowa-democrats-in-newton-weekend-canvas/a245ea3/

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