AZ- CNN: Sinema +7

[NOVA Green]

Regardless of the experience of this polling firm when it comes to Arizona, they are sub-contracted to CNN, so I would imagine they would be held to the methodological standards expected by a major "brand name" customer...

1.) First thing that strikes me is that the gap remains +7 Sinema in both the RV and LV models....

Normally one might expect there to be a bit of a divergence in these numbers, especially in a State like Arizona, where Latino Turnout tends to be significantly lower in Midterm elections than even in Presidential Year elections. This is obviously a good sign for Sinema.

2.) If we look at the "mind made up numbers vs might change mind", again we see that there are significantly more McSally leaning voters that might change mind versus Sinema leaning voters in both the RV and LV models.

3.) Trump Approve / Disapprove numbers would appear to be a bit skewed and different from what we might expect, especially among likely voters....

Now, it could be that there is a bit of an "enthusiasm gap" there, and a good chunk of the "no opinion" voters polled, are those that although they aren't approving of Trump's performance, still tend to maybe lean towards "somewhat approve", but aren't crazy about all of the extra shenanigans of Trump is well known for.

4.) Those 65+ numbers for Sinema are devastating (54-42 D). This is obviously what is skewing the LV numbers....

Additionally the 45+ numbers run (50-45 D).....

We have seen in various other polls, not to mention recent elections, Senior Voters starting to swing hard against Trump, especially as a result of Health Care policies. This is one of the major reasons for dramatically increased support for the Affordable Care Act in National Polls.

I would not discount the impact that this is having in the AZ US-SEN race, and the death of Senator McCain might well have increased the salience of this issue within Arizona in recent weeks.

5.) As I have posted on other threads regarding Arizona, Maricopa County really is ground zero of any hypothetical Democratic Statewide win within the State.

The (54-40 D) numbers are absolutely devastating for McSally, and even if we were to normalize that by MOE for the subsample, a Democratic win in Maricopa likely makes it virtually impossible for a Republican victory, considering traditional numbers even in off-year elections for Non-Maricopa County parts of the State.

6.) There is no potential silver lining for McSally in this poll whatsoever, in a state with a huge number of registered Anglo Independents that frequently vote Republican, when looking at numbers from Household Income, to Age, to region of Arizona....

We will see what the next poll brings, but a huge chunk of the likely voters have made up their minds on this election, and those that are still swingy tend to be swingy in favor of Sinema....