Influence of Hispanic in 2016 Election is quite exaggerated.

[Ljube]

Yes, it will be exaggerated with Dems losing FL, but Ca, CO, NV, NM Clinton wins over Trump or Cruz and Murphy winning FL senate

CO and NV will be battleground states in a Clinton - Trump election.
The other battleground states will be IA, OH, PA, VA and FL.

Trump only needs OH, PA and FL.

[Ljube]

Trump isnt gonna win Pa, though.

Of all candidates, Trump and Christie have the best chances to win PA.

[Ljube]

Bottom line, there isn't that much more to squeeze out of the white vote, but there is a lot of potential for the GOP with the Hispanic and Asian vote, if they can find a way to tap into it.

We'll see about that.

[Ljube]

The black movement is gonna matter in Philly and she is gonna take Castro for CO & NV. As for Iowa, she needs college students turnout. That gives you 270/272 for WH.

College students hate her. So do Iowa natives.
She is a racist, so she won’t pick Castro. Colorado hates her. Nevada doesn’t like her.

But the most devastating thing for her is going to be the black turnout drop and the black percentage drop. I can see Trump campaigning only in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[Ljube]

I sure as hell don't like Clinton, people need to stop assuming she's guaranteed to win Nevada and Colorado.

Did you vote for Obama?

Yes, he did, the first time.

[Ljube]

yes. I'd predict black turn out gonna drop to 60%(as 2004) from 66%(2012).
because there is no black candidates in democrat in 2016.

Based on what? The African American vote was trending upwards before Obama. It's highly unlikely that turnout would collapse like this just because Obama is no longer on the ballot. Studies have shown that people who actually do end up voting are more likely to vote again. Do I think turnout will drop? Yes, but not by more than 1% - 2%. It's possible that AA turnout could  keep dropping if it was only due to Obama, but it will not plunge 6% within the span of 4 years.

This wishful thinking will only hurt Republicans in 2016, but as a Democrat, I welcome this. After all, it worked so well for Romney.

This is an interesting point that needs further analysis. I think we all agree that the black percent will drop, just not by how much. Plus we agree that the Dem vote percent among blacks will drop.

[Ljube]

I sure as hell don't like Clinton, people need to stop assuming she's guaranteed to win Nevada and Colorado.

Did you vote for Obama?

Yes, he did, the first time.

The time Colorado voted for Obama by almost double digits with a smaller Hispanic electorate?

Yes.

[Ljube]

Clinton's weakness in Colorado is way overplayed. If the Hispanic vote turns out, which they will against Trump, Colorado will be more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Why do you think Trump will fare worse among Hispanics than any other Pub candidate?
Most Democrats and most Establishment Pubs think this way.