NC: Kos/R2K: Obama up 2%

[Rowan]

R2K has blacks going from 18.5% of the electorate to 24%? I don't buy it.

[Rowan]

R2K has blacks going from 18.5% of the electorate to 24%? I don't buy it.

Blacks make up 22% of the state's registered voters and have made up 36% of the state's early votes thus far:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/NC_Turnout_.html?showall

Dems always vote early. 64% of the people that voted so far are Dems which is why its 36%. Stop trying to spin the truth. I say they max out at the 22%.

[Rowan]

Dems always vote early. 64% of the people that voted so far are Dems which is why its 36%. Stop trying to spin the truth. I say they max out at the 22%.

I think it will be higher than that. No other demographic is more motivated to vote this year than blacks.

Racist whites?

[Rowan]

24% isn't ridiculous and neither is the net result of Obama at 2%.  You're complaining about a subsample being weighted 2% too much?  Most polls have more than 2% of party identification variation between them, so I don't see the big deal.

I don't even think it will be 22%, I'm saying its the max.

[Rowan]

R2K has blacks going from 18.5% of the electorate to 24%? I don't buy it.

Black voters now make up 21.4% of NC's registered voters, and assuming that they will show up in greater proportions than whites seems to make sense. Increasing estimations from 18.5% is definitely a good move, but whether the right number is 24%, who can tell?


North Carolina registered voters:

So whites increased by 230,000 people and blacks increased by 160,000. Even if all those black people vote for Obama, and McCain gets 75% of the white new voters, its basically a wash.

[Rowan]

Something tells me McCain can't and won't get 75% of newly-registered white voters in North Carolina since I'm sure the majority of them are Democrats.

I would also like to know how many of these registered "voters" were made up by ACORN. This could be inflating the new registration numbers like it has in most states.

[Rowan]

ACORN voters do appear on the rolls. There is no verification process. Thats the problem.

[Rowan]

ACORN voters do appear on the rolls. There is no verification process. Thats the problem.

There's nothing inherently wrong with ACORN voters.  Most of them are valid.  Again, even a case of rampant fraud will produce maybe 2,000-3,000 new registrations.  We've seen additions to the tune of 200,000.

I'm also not sure I'd say there's "no verification" process either.  I don't know the North Carolina system.  Do you?

No but I know the Pennsylvania system, and anyone can just sign up. They only check registrations if there is a problem or challenge.

[Rowan]

We're really cycling through reasons to discredit the poll quickly, and as they get defeated, moving on to another, huh?

Party ID is off in the poll too.

[Rowan]

ACORN voters do appear on the rolls. There is no verification process. Thats the problem.

There's nothing inherently wrong with ACORN voters.  Most of them are valid.  Again, even a case of rampant fraud will produce maybe 2,000-3,000 new registrations.  We've seen additions to the tune of 200,000.

I'm also not sure I'd say there's "no verification" process either.  I don't know the North Carolina system.  Do you?

No but I know the Pennsylvania system, and anyone can just sign up. They only check registrations if there is a problem or challenge.

That is probably the system most places (cross-checking SSNs takes a lot of effort), but you're side-stepping my primary points:  We don't really know the North Carolina system; and, most new registrations, ACORN and otherwise, are likely to be perfectly valid.

I would say most as in 80-85% which leaves 15-20% fraudulent.

[Rowan]

ACORN voters do appear on the rolls. There is no verification process. Thats the problem.

There's nothing inherently wrong with ACORN voters.  Most of them are valid.  Again, even a case of rampant fraud will produce maybe 2,000-3,000 new registrations.  We've seen additions to the tune of 200,000.

I'm also not sure I'd say there's "no verification" process either.  I don't know the North Carolina system.  Do you?

No but I know the Pennsylvania system, and anyone can just sign up. They only check registrations if there is a problem or challenge.

That is probably the system most places (cross-checking SSNs takes a lot of effort), but you're side-stepping my primary points:  We don't really know the North Carolina system; and, most new registrations, ACORN and otherwise, are likely to be perfectly valid.

I would say most as in 80-85% which leaves 15-20% fraudulent.

Which is...a number you made up?  Or what?

Made up.

[Rowan]

Black vote is down to 26.5% after it was 36% on the first day, good news for MAC. As long as the blacks are less than 22% McCain will most likely win.

[Rowan]

Obama is going to win NC.

Thanks for your brilliant analysis. I look forward to more in the future.