2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Rowan]

He was director of the EPA under Reagan, so the dude is definitely an environmental lefty on those issues.

[Rowan]

Monmouth/Gannett NJ-Gov

Christie 50%
Corzine 36%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP27_1.pdf

[Rowan]

OMG! EVIL REPUBLICAN BOOGEYMAN KARL ROVE! OH NOES!!!! TORTURE! IRAQ! OMG! FAIL! FAIL!

[Rowan]

OMG! EVIL REPUBLICAN BOOGEYMAN KARL ROVE! OH NOES!!!! TORTURE! IRAQ! OMG! FAIL! FAIL!

Did you read the end though?  The Karl Rove thing isn't anywhere near as ridiculous as "We want to know when Chris Christie thought about running for governor!"  GODDAMN HIS THOUGHTS

I mean seriously I think Gporter is Corzine's CM

Where's the Freedom of Information Act Request for his diary? We need to know if he EVER thought of running for Governor at any time. EVER.

[Rowan]

Christie now down to 5 or 6:

2-way race:

Christie: 43%
Corzine: 37%

3-way race:

Christie: 40%
Corzine: 35%
Daggett: 10%

These results are based on a Democracy Corps survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner from August 11-12, 2009 among 620 likely voters in New Jersey. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percent.

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/njsw081309fq1web5.pdf

Reading the link, I think the two-way numbers are of people who answered "Daggett" in question 14.

[Rowan]

The Sierra Club endorsed independent candidate Daggett today.

Why not Corzine?

Because he is an epic failure.

[Rowan]

Couldn't this actually backfire? Wouldn't it make Christie seem like a good guy that was willing to help out a friend in a time of need?

[Rowan]

LD-1 is DEFINITELY in play. I would expect the Republicans to be favored.

[Rowan]

My Prediction

Corzine (D) : 52%
Christie (R) : 37%
Dagget (I) : 11%

I doubt a Republican will EVER win in New Jersey again.

I'm sorry, I tried to be optimistic, but it's happened many times where a GOP Nominee leads by a few or trails by a few then gets crushed on election day.

You are truly a moron.

[Rowan]

Quinnipiac has a new poll out tomorrow.

[Rowan]

I'll predict it has Christie +6.

The last poll already had it Christie+6.

I expect something tie-ish (1-2% Christie lead maybe).

It was Christie +9. I don't count the three-way numbers.

[Rowan]

Save Jersey is reporting that the Quinnipiac poll will show:

Christie 47%
Corzine 37%
Daggett 9%

http://blog.savejersey.com/2009/08/31/breaking-christie-leads-corzine-by-10points-in-new-quinnipiac-poll-2.aspx

[Rowan]

Oh, and in case anyone was paying attention, ELEC was deadlocked on moving the date of the debate per Corzine's request. We're still on track for early October.

And Corzine oh so generously agreed to two debates, no matter the decision.

[Rowan]

NJN drops request to move debate. It will be October 1.

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/32800/njn-drops-debate-delay-request

[Rowan]

Met Christie at a meet in greet in Wildwood today. He actually looks skinnier in person than he does in pictures. He shook my hand and signed my sign for me. Overall, he seemed like a pretty genuine person.

[Rowan]

Wow really.  Did you actually get to see him?  OMG.  I remember my Lonegan supporting friend telling me that he cancelled three events for fear of being asked questions.  He's a real genuine guy.  Genuinely scared of opening up his mouth.  He's completely sheltered from confrontation.

Hacks are fun.

[Rowan]

Pretty funny Daggett for Governor ad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg_OFMTlSh4

[Rowan]

There's an Atlantic City station too.

[Rowan]

Political Wire got an advance look at a new Public Policy Polling survey in New Jersey that will be released tomorrow.

While Gov. Jon Corzine (D) has narrowed the gap in the governor's race since late July, Chris Christie (R) continues to hold a solid lead. One reason: Independent candidate Chris Daggett is polling in double digits and most of his supporters say they voted for Barack Obama last year and for Corzine in 2005.

Other key finding: Only 62% of people who say they voted for Corzine in 2005 are saying they plan to do so again.

The complete survey will be released tomorrow

[Rowan]

Oh, Jon.

You can understand the statement in context, but it's not going to look good spliced into an attack ad:

"If you want to go to a really low unemployment rate, go to North Dakota."

http://blogs.app.com/politicspatrol/2009/09/18/corzine-to-unemployed-go-to-north-dakota/

As if on queue:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQfyFly4psU

[Rowan]

Zogby Poll:

1st District:  Albano (D) 53%, Milam (D) 37%, McCann (R) 24%, Donohue (R) 23%, Not Sure 25%.

2nd District: Polistina (R) 36%, Amodeo (R) 33%, Martinez (D) 25%, Floyd (D) 23%, Not Sure 34%.

3rd District: Burzichelli (D) 42%, Villare (R) 24%, Lucas (R) 21%, Riley (D) 21%, Not Sure 34%

4th District: Moriarity (D) 45%, DiCicco (R) 37%, Collins (D) 37%, Lawrence (R) 27%. Not Sure 22%.

9th District: Rumpf (R) 33%, Gove (R) 28%, Visotcky (D) 24%, Rue (D) 24%, Not Sure 42%.

Methodology

The sample is 601 interviews with approximately 20 questions asked from September 14 to 15. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased lists of registered voters. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR's approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies. Weighting by district, age, race and gender is used to adjust for non-response. Margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/article_0b59f2ce-a482-11de-ae1d-001cc4c002e0.html

[Rowan]

New Radio Ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7qp9Tyd8v4

[Rowan]

That's hilarious actually. Let's see, Obama doesn't want to be seen publicly with Corzine. Yeah, tells you pretty much all you need to know about this race.

[Rowan]

New RAS poll out at 5pm.

I was just about to post this.

I'll guess and say:

Christie 47%
Corzine 38%
Daggett 7%

[Rowan]

Strategic Vision has Christie up 46/38, with Daggett at 8%.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/09/23/christie_leads_corzine_by_eight_points.html