2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Rowan]

PPP

Christie 42%
Corzine 38%
Daggett 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_10271205.pdf

[Rowan]

RCP average has it at Corzine +0.2. Very exciting race to say the least.

And that's only because that ridiculous Suffolk poll is included.

[Rowan]

Quinnipiac is out with their poll tomorrow morning. I will predict a 42-39-12 Christie lead.

[Rowan]

I was simply stating

You don't simply state anything.

[Rowan]

I don't think it has anything to do with likely voter screens. Quinnipiac is the only one that doesn't show Corzine struggling with the base. The PPP poll has Corzine at only 67% among Democrats. Rasmussen had him at 70% before leaners.

[Rowan]

[See UPDATE: Now Quinnipiac says the sample splits 40 percent Democratic, 25 percent Republican, 29 percent Independent]

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzNlNjU4NmY1MjU4Y2Q5ZTdjOWFjY2UxMzVhYTFhZWY=

[Rowan]

PPP:

"In the time we've been polling nationally I've never seen a race where the IVR and live interviewer polls told two stories as different as the New Jersey Governor's race.

All 9 IVR polls this month have shown Chris Christie in the lead. 6 out of the 9 live interviewer polls have shown Corzine in the lead."

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/new-jersey-polls.html

[Rowan]

SUSA: All Tied Up

Christie 43%
Corzine 43%
Daggett 11%

[Rowan]

Corzine gaffe?

http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2009/10/a_corzine_gaffe_on_tolls.html

[Rowan]

FDU:

Christie 41%
Corzine 39%
Daggett 14%

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/finaldays/final.pdf

[Rowan]

Go here and vote for NJ, it just fell behind Maine.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[Rowan]

That link seems to be broken.

[Rowan]

New Strategic Vision poll out:

Christie: 49%
Corzine: 39%
Daggett: 6%
Undecided: 6%

Below are the results of a three-day poll in the state of New Jersey. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in New Jersey, aged 18+, and conducted October 28-30, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_103109.htm

GARBAGE!
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_092409.htm

Christie 46%
Corzine 38%
Daggett 8%
Undecided 8%

Tender Branson got the numbers wrong.  STILL GARBAGE.  JUST LIKE DEMOCRACY CORPS EXCEPT WITH A RIGHT BENT.

That poll is from September...

[Rowan]

PPP NJ

Christie 47%
Corzine 41%
Daggett 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_1101513.pdf

[Rowan]

An 11 day poll is hilarious.

[Rowan]

The New Rasmussen is Christie +3, yet again.

Link?

[Rowan]

I voted.

[Rowan]

Interesting.

http://www.politickernj.com/max/34752/street-level-newark-update

[Rowan]

“FWIW, as of noon, trusted source says total turnout in GOP & swing districts in NJ is significantly outpacing turnout in Democrat districts.”

http://twitter.com/jimgeraghty/status/5398492680

[Rowan]

Good(and candid) article involving Sweeney:

"For the first time in all my years doing GOTV, rank and file labor guys weren't telling me who they were voting for," said the operative. "These are guys I'm talking to as they're heading in and out of the polls and ordinarily you'll get a thumbs up sign for the Democrat or some fraternal sign for the Democratic candidate. Not this time. This time - silence."

"I go to the gym in the morning and staunch Democrats were saying they were not voting for Corzine. You'd spend 15 minutes trying to convince them why it's important, but they weren't coming out. The differences (between Corzine and Christie) were black and white, but my members are no different from anyone else. They take it out on the guy on top. This whole election was conditioned by the national economy, and then you add to that a polarizing healthcare debate raging in Washington, D.C. These are tides. When Obama came sweeping in last year and brought everyone else with him, it wasn't because we were that good. We rode a wave. Now, we got stronger then - for this. As a party we survived this tidal wave."

http://www.politickernj.com/max/34877/sweeney-you-could-feel-it-ground

[Rowan]

"Gov. Chris Christie’s voter approval slipped noticeably from earlier in the month, but he remains ahead, 43% approving to 32% disapproving of the job he’s doing, according to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind™. The governor started March with a 52%-21% approval rating before making dramatic announcements of cuts to the state budget. Better than two-thirds of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing, and independents approve by 49%-19%, while Democrats disapprove by 45%-23%. The governor runs ahead in non-public-employee households by 44%-28% and runs behind in public-employee households 37%-49%."

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/slips/

I am stunned right now that he has a positive approval after that budget.

[Rowan]

Uh-Oh:

NEW JERSEY (WABC) -- New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been in office for just three months, and a new eyewitness news poll shows voters are not giving him any kind of a honeymoon as he presses for budget cuts.

Only 33% of New Jersey residents approve the job Christie is doing as governor.

Nearly twice the number, 63% disapprove.

The telephone poll by SurveyUSA has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=news/politics&id=7403264

Rasmussen had him at 53% just a few days earlier.

[Rowan]

Quinnipiac Poll

Christie Approval: 51/36

Obama Approval: 47/47

Christie is more popular than Obama in New Jersey!

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1489

[Rowan]

Also:

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[Rowan]

Still good approvals:

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http://publicmind.fdu.edu/governor1010/