The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Rowan]

Alabama has a large black population which artificially inflates Obama's approval.

[Rowan]

Arkansas(Rasmussen)

Approve 34%
Disapprove 66%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/toplines/toplines_2010_arkansas_senate_race_december_1_2009

[Rowan]

South Carolina(Rasmussen)

Approve 45%
Disapprove 54%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/south_carolina/49_in_south_carolina_oppose_impeachment_of_sanford

[Rowan]

South Carolina(Rasmussen)

Approve 45%
Disapprove 54%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/south_carolina/49_in_south_carolina_oppose_impeachment_of_sanford

That seems kind of high.

The black population creates some type of floor there that wouldn't be there in other states. White Democrats are willing to disapprove of Obama, but not Black Democrats.

[Rowan]

Pbrower, Obama needs to worry more about groups that he is losing, rather than picking up new groups.

[Rowan]

Gallup 49/44

[Rowan]

South Carolina(PPP)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 49%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_1208.pdf

[Rowan]

That's actually pretty high for South Carolina, assuming Obama is at 46-49% nationally. I'm not sure if it's a junk poll or not.

Rasmussen had it at 45% in South Carolina. The high black population surely helps his numbers.

[Rowan]

South Carolina will NOT be close in 2012.

[Rowan]

Just because Obama is running higher the avg approval ratings in SC doesn't mean crap. SC has a high black population, so his approval ratings would be high.

I really don't get what this is supposed to mean. Pollsters generally know how to properly account for these things, certainly Rasmussen and PPP would.

I think his point(or at least mine) is that white Democrats are willing to disapprove of Obama while Black Democrats are not willing to do that. This makes his numbers here higher than in other southern states. Just a theory.

[Rowan]

Virginia(Rasmussen)

Approve 50%
Disapprove 50%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/virginia/54_in_virginia_oppose_health_care_plan

[Rowan]

Ohio(Rasmussen)

Approve 46%
Disapprove 53%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/ohio/toplines/toplines_2010_ohio_governor_race_december_7_2009

[Rowan]

Civitas, isn't a very good polling company.. Just look at there 2008 polls... Just wait until the new PPP NC numbers come out.

Nevermind the fact that favorables and approval aren't the same thing. But apparently hacks don't care about things like that.

[Rowan]

Civitas, isn't a very good polling company.. Just look at there 2008 polls... Just wait until the new PPP NC numbers come out.

Nevermind the fact that favorables and approval aren't the same thing. But apparently hacks don't care about things like that.

Civitas looks far more reliable than does SurveyUSA.

In case you think that I am a hack:

1. I have no idea of which is more reliable: favorability or approval. I know that there is a difference, and when I see a poll that has both favorability and approval I average them.

2. Polls are estimates; elections are the definitive reality.

3. Precision is impossible in an estimate. 

4. I have let some of the polls that I have thought suspect stand -- like the SUSA polls of last month. 

5. I recognize that we have 35 months until Election 2012, by which time much will change, including the prospects of victory and loss of the President.

6. I offer analysis -- and I use numbers.

7. This map can show where Obama is doing well and where he isn't doing so well.  This map is intended to compare current reality to that of November 4, 2008.
 
8. President Obama will win or lose in 2012 almost entirely on his record. 

Civitas better than SurveyUSA? Do you know which pollster NAILED the 2009 results?

And this thread is called "The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread". I think you have an answer.

[Rowan]

Civitas better than SurveyUSA? Do you know which pollster NAILED the 2009 results?

And this thread is called "The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread". I think you have an answer.

Approval and favorability differ by little -- 1-2%, which is less than the usual differences between pollsters and certain criteria of selecting "voters" -- adults, registered voters, or "likely voters". A 1-2% difference is within the usual margin of error. The difference between approval and favorability is slight enough for me.     

Proof?

Also, SUSA was the most accurate in 2008 as well.

[Rowan]

I think Obama is at 35% approval in Vermont. There hasn't been a poll there, so no one can dispute my possiblity.

[Rowan]

Posted on Pollster.com, Obama Approval in Wisconsin 60/37 (done by UW)

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/wi_obama_doyle_uwisc_10291120.php

According to that poll, he has 54% approval among likely voters.

94% among Dems, 54% of independents, and 25% of Republicans approve. Probably too high, I think his approval in Wisconsin is around 50\50.

And look at the dates 10/29-11/20. A month long poll is garbage.

[Rowan]

South Dakota(PPP)

Approve 41%
Disapprove 52%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SD_1215.pdf

[Rowan]

Florida(Rasmussen)

Approve 44%
Disapprove 55%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/florida/toplines/toplines_2010_florida_governor_race_december_14_2009

[Rowan]

Excellent/Good and Fair/Poor aren't the same as approval and disapproval and should not be included.

[Rowan]

Also it's a Registered Voters poll, not a likely voters poll. Democrats have a huge registration advantage in NC, about 15 points if I'm not mistaken.

[Rowan]

North Dakota(Rasmussen)

Approve 41%
Disapprove 58%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_north_dakota_senate_december_17_2009

[Rowan]

That can't be right, Rowan. I was told Obama will win fi-con states like ND and Texas.

The poll clearly doesn't include the Age Wave.

[Rowan]

Colorado(Public Opinion Strategies)

Approve 43%
Disapprove 51%

https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0BzLEv8CSM220MzEyNzlkMWMtZmI3NC00ZDU5LWJlYTYtYmY4NTY0OTIyOTE5&hl=en

[Rowan]

Does anyone want me to start making a map?

A few rules I would follow:

1. All polls must be approval, not favorability

2. No Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor polls

3. No internal polls