LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

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Edwards needs about 55,000 votes to get to 50%. Probably not enought out there, but if he can get in the high 40s I'd say he has a decent chance in the run off.

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The Impeachment Crap from Democrats does one thing right from the GET-GO: Unite Republican Voters. Another month from D's with that sort of nonsense and Rispone might have a shot to pull this off.

This is gonna be a dumb, unprovable trope, isnt it?
Republicans turn out regardless.

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JBE will end the night at around 46.3%


Pretty mediocre

Probably at 47% actually, right where polls had him.

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Intervals: <60%, 60-70%, and 70%+ (non-Atlas colors)

Total Republican: 696,399 (51.8%)
Total Democratic: 636,993 (47.4%)

If these are the results in November, it'd be disapointing but certainly a noble effort from the last Southern Republican governor.

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Intervals: <60%, 60-70%, and 70%+ (non-Atlas colors)

Total Republican: 696,399 (51.8%)
Total Democratic: 636,993 (47.4%)

If these are the results in November, it'd be disapointing but certainly a noble effort from the last Southern Republican governor.

Firstly, I think you Democratic.

Secondly, Roy Cooper and Ralph Northam still exist.

I meant deep south, although i guess i did forget about Cooper.

Also, just an independent abhorred by modern Republicans behavior.

Edit: Forgot a word. 

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Ripose ran a very negative campaign against Abraham. While I'm not sure it matters in the long run, it shouldnt be a surprise that Abraham's supporters are upset.

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Ripose ran a very negative campaign against Abraham. While I'm not sure it matters in the long run, it shouldnt be a surprise that Abraham's supporters are upset.

It’s not a big deal, Abraham is not a sore loser and endorsed him quickly, primary are sometimes brutal but it rarely matters in the end. Just at the #FL-GOV primary last year, it was very brutal and despite it, in the end most Putnam’s voters backed De Santis.

We'll see. There could be republicans who voted for Abraham out of loyality who might now vote for Edwards, especially since Ripose went negative while Abraham didnt. Not saying it'll happen, but to openly dismiss the possibility seems short sighted.

Also, while the Florida governor race was very negative, DeSantis had about 3 months to consolidate support. Ripose has a month. DeSantis also wasnt running against a semi-popular incumbent.

Again, i'm not saying Ripose is gonna lose because of this. But Ripose went very negative while Abraham did not. That could piss off some people, maybe enough to get them to cross over like in 2015.

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Im not gonna read too much into anecdotal reports, especially since we're getting actually numbers soon.

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Thoughts on this one after what happened today? I’ll stick with Tilt/Lean D JBE +2 for now, but far closer to Tossup than Likely D.

I think if anything the Mississippi race is far better of a comparison in terms of what kind of race this will be than Kentucky's race. More similar electorate and more similar candidates.

Except the Mississippi race apparently has terrible turnout. The early Louisiana turnout, however, has been incredibly strong.

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Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

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This race on my mind has kept me up all night.

It hasn't kept me up, but i purposefully haven't made any plans tonight because I know this is going to be a nail biter and i wont be able to concentrate on anything else.

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I guess thats good for around noon. Not sure the voting patterns of Louisianan though, especially on a Saturday.

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Wasn't Trafalgar the same group that said Donnelly +12?  And Bevin +5?

Trafalgar got thrust into the limelight by accurately call Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. But their polling since then has been very hit or miss.