JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It won't be easy for Dems to hold KS-03 when they still don't have a candidate. I think they'd need a strong Johnson County candidate to hold it, and even that's not assured, since they're facing a landslide at the top of the ticket.

When did Dennis Moore retire? I remember he was thought to be retiring around January but then changed his mind?

There definately will be a landslide atop the ticket with Brownback hitting 65% and hopefully Moran(but even Tiarht) getting close to 60% if not exceeding it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why the hell did Moore retire anyway?  He could have at least waited until 2012 when Democrats would have likely had a better chance at holding the seat. 

One district that I am interested in is OH-01.  The district voted heavily for Obama and came within 3,000 votes of going for John Kerry and should be reasonably safe for a moderate Democrat like Driehaus.  If he can pile up a 10,000 vote lead in the Democratic leaning Cincinatti/Hamilton part of the district, it will be more than enough to offset any margin that  Chabot gets in the heavily Republican chunk of Butler county in the district. 

I just love the responses congrescritters give when asked that. Moore's was "Time for a new generation of leadership"

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm waiting for the year-end reports to do a bigger update, but I have changed these so far:

Democratic seats:

AR-02 (Vic Snyder) moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Snyder retiring and his numbers sucked.
NC-08 (Larry Kissell) moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Good polling numbers for Kissell.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) added to Democratic watch list - Republicans would be fools not to dig up a strong challenger, given Hoeven's likely landslide in the Senate race.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) added to Democratic watch list - former Rep. Fitzpatrick is running against him.
PA-17 (Tim Holden) added to Democratic watch list - strong Republican recruit from Holden's home turf.

Republican seats:

PA-06 (Jim Gerlach) moved to Lean Republican from Pure Tossup - Gerlach back in the saddle.

I agree with your listing on this one. This Kevin Cramer doesn't appeal to many people from what I read. The GOP needs Wayne Stenejhem(Sp?) to jump in or his brother Anthony. They could clear the field and are both rising stars.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Some pretty good numbers with regards to fundraising across the country.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

Frazier has raised more money and seems like a better candidate all-around. Other than that I don't see much difference.

Remember that Salazar voted for healthcare, despite being a blue doge, and that McCain was able to squeak out a victory there.  That's basically why I view it as more competitive, but of course, I'm not looking in-depth at the candidates and their fundraising and such.

Going by Green Papers (I think it is total raised so far)
Tipton has about $250,000 Salazar has about $980,000
Gardner has about $850,000 Markey has about $1.6 Million
Frazier has about $650,000 Perlmutter has about $1.2 Million

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

Frazier has raised more money and seems like a better candidate all-around. Other than that I don't see much difference.

Remember that Salazar voted for healthcare, despite being a blue doge, and that McCain was able to squeak out a victory there.  That's basically why I view it as more competitive, but of course, I'm not looking in-depth at the candidates and their fundraising and such.

Going by Green Papers (I think it is total raised so far)
Tipton has about $250,000 Salazar has about $980,000
Gardner has about $850,000 Markey has about $1.6 Million
Frazier has about $650,000 Perlmutter has about $1.2 Million

Yeah, that's the total raised. Cash on hand is a little different. Salazar has $1.1m, Tipton has $191k. Markey has $1.25m, Gardner $540k. And Perlmutter also has $1.25m, while Frazier has $379k.

Are there any websites that have COH info easily available?