PA: Rasmussen: Toomey (R) up by nine

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Thos race and Kentucky show an interesting trend.  The vast majority of the movement in the polls comes from either Toomey or Paul.  Sestak's number and Conway's number generally remain in the low to mid forties.  To some extent, that reminds me of Casey's race with Santorum.  Santorum never got past 42 or 43 in the polls.  When one showed the race close, it was due to Casey's number being lower.

Interesting comparison. Of course Toomey won't get 59%, he doesn't need to. He will get 52%-54% and that was what Casey was going to get before Santorum's second leg down in the polling in Sept and October.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

He should be up by more. He can't top 50% Why can't he close the deal?

Should he? I don't think 49% is that bad for Toomey when you consider that Sestak is a first rate oponent. Not to mention how Sestaks economic views are probably closer to the majority view in PA that Toomey's.

Its where a Republican in a PA open seat should would be expected at if they were on the verge of winning. PA wouldn't elect any GOP to the Senate by a wide margin for an open seat, not anymore and even in the past, open seats were competative. This is the first really open seat in PA since 1980 except for the 1991 special SEnate election of course.