Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump actually lost 11,000 votes compared to Romney,  and 24,000 votes compared to McCain, probably as a result of attrition. Clinton lost 80,000 votes compared to Obama. If Clinton had turned out Obama's voters, she would have had 45%. Which means the Democrats gain 1.5% to 2% each cycle just from attrition of the GOP vote, when they turn out their own voters.


I think it will trend Democratic as the 65 and up demographic dies off, because they are the ones keeping the White Vote at >80% Republican. If the White vote slips into the mid 70's Republican (which is still the most Republican of any state), MS becomes a tossup. If the Democrats nominate Harris or someone who can replicate the excitement of Obama, I think MS is at that point by 2028.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.

Seniors vote more than young people. White Seniors are more Republican than White Millennials even in MS, though MS White Millennials are more Republican than that of any other state. However this doesn't matter because any decline of the GOP among Whites, even just 10% would be catastrophic. 

MS Blacks vote 97% Democratic
MS Whites vote 85% Republican
Lets say the electorate is 65-35 White (it is a little higher but not much).

65 ^ .85  = 55.25%  + (35^.03) = 56.3%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.15) = 43.7%


Lets run it again with Whites at 75% Republican.

65 ^ .75  = 48.75%  + (35^.03) = 49.8%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.25) = 50.2%


For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.

This is great analysis although it brings up the question of if the black vote can also become slightly depolarized in 10-20 years in Mississippi. This seems crazy today but so did the notion that Trump would match/slightly exceed Romney’s performance with Latinos in early-mid 2016. 

A slightly more friendlier face GOP that still has a staunch center-right position on immigration, pro fair trade, and pro manufacturing could end up doing 5-10 points better with the black vote in Mississippi down the line. This is a state with a lot of black manufacturing workers after all. We do know young black men are already less democratic than their elder counterparts.

All that does is buy them another cycle or two. 5% would reduce the Dem % by 1.5% overall give or take. Could make the difference in a tight race, but it is not going to reverse a trend or replace the losses the GOP is experiencing among their most solid voters from attrition.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.

Seniors vote more than young people. White Seniors are more Republican than White Millennials even in MS, though MS White Millennials are more Republican than that of any other state. However this doesn't matter because any decline of the GOP among Whites, even just 10% would be catastrophic.  

MS Blacks vote 97% Democratic
MS Whites vote 85% Republican
Lets say the electorate is 65-35 White (it is a little higher but not much).

65 ^ .85  = 55.25%  + (35^.03) = 56.3%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.15) = 43.7%


Lets run it again with Whites at 75% Republican.

65 ^ .75  = 48.75%  + (35^.03) = 49.8%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.25) = 50.2%


For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.

Are there exit polls/research studies that confirm that younger whites in Mississippi are 10% less R than the seniors? If anything, I would have thought there’d still be some demosaurs in that seniors cohort

There is a massive age gap in most every Southern state. Adam made a map that illustrated just how substantial it is (I should really keep that thing tabbed). VA is skewed I think by the extremely low 2014 turnout meaning the millennials polled were not representative and hence why Gillespie did so well in NOVA against Warner and why the map doesn't have VA colored like say CO.

I thought it'd be interesting to explore how the youngest and oldest cohorts are currently voting and measure the discrepancy between those two groups' margins as a way of peeking into the future.

I decided to look at 2014 for multiple reasons, including the fact that it is the most recent election and that these individuals (especially going forward for the young cohorts) are/will be the core, reliable voting blocs for each subset of the population. I could have used 2008 data, but sheesh: it's 8 years old now.

Obviously we don't have exit polling data for every state, but you can use it to observe general trends for several regions of the country, and definitely so for the South. All but two states' (ME & WV) youngest voters are more Democratic than their oldest voters; in WV, the margin difference was 2 points.

Shades indicate the difference between 18-29 & 65+ voters' margins in 2014. In states where exit polling was available for both gubernatorial and senatorial races, both outcomes were averaged together to produce the result.



The five states with the biggest discrepancies between 18-29 & 65+ groups:

State	'14 Mar-Diff (Pts)	18-29	65+
CO	81	D+61	R+20
SC	58	D+19	R+39
MS	43	D+3	R+40
GA	43	D+13	R+30
TX	42	R+3	R+45

The Solid DEM South Shall Rise Again!!! And this time thanks to millennials, minorities and college educated whites.

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.

Seniors vote more than young people. White Seniors are more Republican than White Millennials even in MS, though MS White Millennials are more Republican than that of any other state. However this doesn't matter because any decline of the GOP among Whites, even just 10% would be catastrophic.  

MS Blacks vote 97% Democratic
MS Whites vote 85% Republican
Lets say the electorate is 65-35 White (it is a little higher but not much).

65 ^ .85  = 55.25%  + (35^.03) = 56.3%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.15) = 43.7%


Lets run it again with Whites at 75% Republican.

65 ^ .75  = 48.75%  + (35^.03) = 49.8%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.25) = 50.2%


For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.

Are there exit polls/research studies that confirm that younger whites in Mississippi are 10% less R than the seniors? If anything, I would have thought there’d still be some demosaurs in that seniors cohort

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MS/president/

R+2 in 30-39, R+16 in 40-49, R+9 in 50-64, and R+56 in 65+.

and D+12 among those 18-29.

Whites also voted 89% for Romney and comprised just 59% of the electorate with Obama boosting black turnout to the mid 30's. So while having Obama goosed the white vote for the Republicans, it was still more than counteracted by the increased black and young voter turnout.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.

Logically what NCYankee has laid out makes sense but it’s hard to reconcile the idea that MS will become a tossup given its brain drain problem and it being...Mississippi. I guess we’ll see how the senate race there plays out this year.

I wouldn't expect anything noticeable to happen in a midterm.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

AP and EG, you guys are are not taking into account the effect of Millennial displacement of Seniors dragging down the GOP vote among whites.

Remember as I calculated above, Whites going down to just 75% Republican, makes Mississippi a tie and the few exit polls we have show a massive skew towards Republicans among those 65 and older.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

AP and EG, you guys are are not taking into account the effect of Millennial displacement of Seniors dragging down the GOP vote among whites.

Remember as I calculated above, Whites going down to just 75% Republican, makes Mississippi a tie and the few exit polls we have show a massive skew towards Republicans among those 65 and older.

While that could happen, I don't think it's unreasonable to predict they will get more Republican with age. Taking the 18-29 or 30-39 age bracket numbers can have a high margin of error, even higher when broken down by race. There's also the possibility of Dem dropoff in the black vote by 5-10% that gets underestimated.

Yes I considered that, but the fact that the skew among seniors is so gappingly large and the high floor the GOP needs among whites, leads me to think the GOP will start losing ground at an accelerated pace over the next 10 to 15 years.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

AP and EG, you guys are are not taking into account the effect of Millennial displacement of Seniors dragging down the GOP vote among whites.

Remember as I calculated above, Whites going down to just 75% Republican, makes Mississippi a tie and the few exit polls we have show a massive skew towards Republicans among those 65 and older.

While that could happen, I don't think it's unreasonable to predict they will get more Republican with age. Taking the 18-29 or 30-39 age bracket numbers can have a high margin of error, even higher when broken down by race. There's also the possibility of Dem dropoff in the black vote by 5-10% that gets underestimated.

Yes I considered that, but the fact that the skew among seniors is so gappingly large and the high floor the GOP needs among whites, leads me to think the GOP will start losing ground at an accelerated pace over the next 10 to 15 years.

By the time this math works out for MS Dems, don't you think Republicans will have improved enough with the rural black vote that it won't matter anyway?

I don't think they will improve much among rural blacks, certainly not in MS.