CNN - Trump and Sanders lead IA

[cinyc]

This is incredible. Cruz is completely imploding.

On this poll it's slightly more a TRUMP surge than a Cruz implosion.

True. This, though, means that two consecutive polls have showed Trump with double-digit leads that he opened up in a matter of days.

Trump's lead actually shrunk in the CNN/ORC Poll from last November/December.  He was up 13 then; he's up 11 now.  It's largely a function of Carson voters defecting from him to Cruz in greater numbers than Trump.

The trends:

Trump 37% (+4)
Cruz 26% (+6)
Rubio 14% (+4)
Carson 6% (-10)
Bush 3% (-1)
Huckabee 3% (+1)
Paul 2% (-1)
Christie 1% (-1)
Fiorina 1% (-2)
Kasich 1% (+0)
Santorum 1% (+0)
Gilmore <1% (+0)
No Opinion 4% (+3)

On the Democratic side:
Sanders 51% (+15)
Clinton 43% (-11)
O'Malley 4% (+0)
Someone else <1% (-2)
None 1% (+<1%)
No Opinion 1% (-2)

[cinyc]

Since November/December, we had the Cruz surge where he led in Iowa. Now, Trump is. So, while his lead has decreased since then, it's increased drastically in the past few days.

That depends on which Iowa poll released today you believe.  Some show the race still close.  Others show Trump with a double-digit lead.  It's too soon to tell, really, though at the surface, Cruz has had a bad week so far and Trump has generally had a good week (other than the 2 Corinthians thing).

[cinyc]

Polling a caucus is hard and it is all about turnout and organization. If new voters show up in yoooge numbers then Trump and Sanders will win. This poll shows what that scenario looks like.

FWIW, the sample size of the likely caucus goers in this poll is really small - 266 on the Republican side and 280 on the Democratic side.  That makes the declared MoE +/-6 in each contest.  The Emerson poll (showing Clinton with a 9 point lead) has similar sample sizes.  Loras and Monmouth/KBUR have larger sample sizes.