my Northeast was angry last night, my friends

[cinyc]

it looks to me like obama under-performed out on long island.

Not really.  Kerry won Nassau 52-47 and Suffolk 49-49 in 2004.  Obama took Nassau 53-46 and Suffolk 52-47.

[cinyc]

it looks to me like obama under-performed out on long island.

Not really.  Kerry won Nassau 52-47 and Suffolk 49-49 in 2004.  Obama took Nassau 53-46 and Suffolk 52-47.

i was expecting a bigger improvement on kerry's numbers.

Well, Suffolk pretty much tracked the state swing.  New York went 59-40 Kerry in 2004 and 62-37 Obama this election - a net 6 point swing to Obama.  Suffolk went net 5 to Obama - not terribly out of line with the state.  Nassau was only net 2 - underperforming a little bit, but still an improvement.

Your problem is with Nassau County, not Suffolk.

[cinyc]

What amazes me is that New York's House delegation is now split 26-3.  Of course, if not for the whole NY-13 debacle it would have been 25-4.

You sure? Who are the 3 remaining NY House Republicans? I thought the remaining ones got wiped out this year (NY-13, NY-25, NY-29)?

NY-3 (King), NY-23 (McHugh), NY-26 (Lee).  All of them are pretty safe.

Until the newly Democratic State Senate, State Assembly and Governor (assuming Patterson is reelected in 2010) redistrict those Republican incumbents out of existence after 2010, leaving 1 or 2 districts statewide that a Republican might win.

[cinyc]

What amazes me is that New York's House delegation is now split 26-3.  Of course, if not for the whole NY-13 debacle it would have been 25-4.

You sure? Who are the 3 remaining NY House Republicans? I thought the remaining ones got wiped out this year (NY-13, NY-25, NY-29)?

NY-3 (King), NY-23 (McHugh), NY-26 (Lee).  All of them are pretty safe.

Until the newly Democratic State Senate, State Assembly and Governor (assuming Patterson is reelected in 2010) redistrict those Republican incumbents out of existence after 2010, leaving 1 or 2 districts statewide that a Republican might win.

easier said than done, given geography and all.

keep in mind Staten Island may well flip at any moment.

Put Lower Manhattan back in the Staten Island district, focusing on the Lower East Side - or better yet, split Staten Island into 2, one district moving up into Manhattan, the other into Brooklyn.  Problem solved - seats are safe Democrat.

Push King's district into Queens.  Make him face off against a Democrat incumbent on his turf (after all - NY is probably going to lose 2 seats).  Problem solved - King loses.  The rest of Long Island has been trending Democrat anyway, so giving a different Queens district some of Nassau probably wouldn't hurt.

Upstate would be a bit more difficult to carve up and avoid at least one Republican stronghold.  There are only 2 Republicans in Upstate districts anyway - one in the North Country, one in the Buffalo-Rochester suburbs.  Killing the North Country district would be tough - but carving up the other district might be possible.  More Buffalo, less suburbs.