NY-20 Special Election

[cinyc]

Here's the status of the military and other absentees.  Military ballots are trickling in, closing in on 20% in.



And the county breakdown of absentees by party.  The numbers didn't change much from Friday:

[cinyc]

Indeed, but the odds are that these absentee votes won't give a voter edge by several hundred votes, and if they do, it'll probably favor Tedisco.  But we'll have to chill and observe.

a bit tragic since Tedisco seems like the most boring legislator imaginable

Tedisco may be a lot of things, but the most boring legislator imaginable?  Not by a longshot.  He took on Spitzer - and won.

[cinyc]

Meh. Can you imagine him doing anything interesting in Congress?  he did one thing interesting over an easily poll-able symbolic  and controversial bill with his minimal minority legislative experience.

I can see him pulling some of the same stunts he did as Assembly Minority Leader.


The court in Poughkeepsie ruled that the counties can start counting absentees on Wednesday.  The Republicans wanted to wait until all the military absentees were in on the 14th to start counting.

[cinyc]

Murphy up 83 now.

Only 2 small counties left to recanvass, Greene and Essex.

http://www.politickerny.com/2949/murphy-leads-83-judge-says-start-counting-paper-ballots-wednesday-finish-machine-recanvass-asap

Greene is not that small - it has about 6.4% of the NY-20 vote in so far.  By comparison, Washington County has 8.4% of the vote - and had the biggest flip in the pre-recanvass numbers.  Essex is the second smallest county in the district.

[cinyc]

Murphy up 83 now.

Only 2 small counties left to recanvass, Greene and Essex.

http://www.politickerny.com/2949/murphy-leads-83-judge-says-start-counting-paper-ballots-wednesday-finish-machine-recanvass-asap

Greene is not that small - it has about 6.4% of the NY-20 vote in so far.  By comparison, Washington County has 8.4% of the vote - and had the biggest flip in the pre-recanvass numbers.  Essex is the second smallest county in the district.

My mistake. I knew Essex was a small one, but wasn't sure about Greene. I think Ostego is the other small one.

Correct - but only part of Otsego County is in NY-20 (the rest, including the city Oneonta, is in NY-24).  Part of Essex is also outside of the district.

[cinyc]

Is this race still a tossup?

Pretty much.  The numbers keep going back and forth depending on what county gets recanvassed when. 

If pushed, I'd give a really slight advantage to Murphy.  But how the absentees break is unknowable and obviously will be key - as will how many more military absentees trickle in before the 14th.

[cinyc]

New numbers from the NYS Board of Elections:

Jim Tedisco (R):     77,034
Scott Murphy (D):   77,017
Difference:       17

The changes came from Washington County's updated numbers (reported yesterday by politickerny.com) making it into the NYS BOE official unofficial count and a 100 additional votes for Tedisco on the Republican line in Saratoga County's tally.  Perhaps someone couldn't add - or still can't.

Absentee update in a minute.

[cinyc]

Military absentees are still slowly trickling in - over 200 are in now.  Note the curious footnote at the bottom.


General absentee activity is fairly stagnant.  A few more came in from Dutchess and Greene Counties. 



Democrats maintained their 4-point advantage in absentees versus their registration deficit.  It actually grew a bit to 4.13 points from slightly under 4 points.

[cinyc]

For what it's worth, Murphy wins by 128 using a straight-line allocation of currently in absentees by county vote.  Of course, if the absentees break along party lines, Tedisco would win big.

[cinyc]

Today's update:
Jim Tedisco (R):     77,035 (50.0055%)
Scott Murphy (D):   77,018 (49.9945%)
Difference:       17

Both men picked up one vote in Essex County, so the margin remains the same.  Greene and Essex Counties were the only ones left to recanvass as of yesterday.  It sounds like Essex did, which might only leave Greene (unless Greene recanvassed and found no change).

The absentee-in count remains the same at 6,726.  No new military absentees were reported in - 201 are in so far.

[cinyc]

These initial reports may be misleading, depending on who objected to what absentees.  And if you think the military absentees broke differently than the regular vote, they are especially misleading because the military and overseas absentees cannot be counted until April 14.   They are still trickling in.

Politickerny.com is reporting from Democrat sources that Murphy picked up 20 votes in Delaware, 10 in Rennselaer and 13 in parts of Dutchess counties.

[cinyc]

Also, Disco Duck called up all the absentee voters and asked them who they voted for, so he knows which ballots to challenge.

Of course, the Murphy campaign would NEVER do exactly the same thing.  Never.  BTW - If his campaign didn't, it's incompetent.

As for the questioned absentees, were hearing about the questionable Tedisco-objected absentees from  left-wing sources, but not the questionable Murphy-objected absentees that likely also exist.  And most of us are forgetting that the military and overseas absentees cannot be counted yet, which may or may not offset any questioned absentees.

[cinyc]

NY-20 Update:

Tedisco up 24 overall.

This includes all recanvassing and some absentees being counted. Murphy has gained 44 votes from absentees counted so far.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults040909.pdf

Tedisco picked up a net 51 votes from recanvassing the machine count in Greene County, putting him up by 68 before absentees.  Greene was supposedly the last county to recanvass.  So the official unofficial machine count tally after the first recanvassing is:

Tedisco (R) 77,060 (50.02%)
Murphy (D) 76,992 (49.98%)

That's the baseline to work off of when trying to project absentees.

Here's a breakdown of the absentees counted as of 10:00AM today:



All county counts are extremely partial.  Columbia has counted 6.71% of the absentees returned, Dutchess 8.38% and Greene 44.42%.

[cinyc]

Delaware County Absentees (via Capitol Confidential):
Murphy 139
Tedisco 119
Objections 9
Military/Overseas not counted 33

That shrinks Tedisco's lead to 4.

The absentees counted thus far came in 4.05% better for Murphy in Delaware than the machine count, and puts the Delaware County overall tally at Tedisco 3,489 - Murphy 3,486.

[cinyc]

Delaware County Absentees:
Murphy 139
Tedisco 119
Objections 9
Military/Overseas not counted 33

That shrinks Tedisco's lead to 4.

The absentees counted thus far came in 4.05% better for Murphy in Delaware than the machine count. 

I think we're almost at the point where we can call the election for Murphy.

Not without seeing results from Saratoga County and the military absentees.

[cinyc]

Hm, I'm not following this as closely as I intended. Is there a date where all the ballots must be counted?

Counting of regular absentee ballots could have started as early as Wednesday.  Military and overseas absentees cannot be counted until April 14, the day after they must be received to get counted.  

I doubt there's a final date, other than whenever the court decides the last challenge.  

Rennselaer County may be done counting the non-challenged, non-overseas and military absentee ballots, but no results have been announced yet.

[cinyc]

On the absentee count of one precinct in Republican-leaning Saratoga County:

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The objections are going both ways.

[cinyc]

NY-20 Update

Murphy ahead by 8.

Murphy ahead by 76 on absentee ballots counted so far.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults040909b.pdf

The new absentees came from Rennselaer County (92.5% of all absentees in counted (including uncounted military and overseas); Murphy did 3.7%  better than the machine count so far without military and overseas absentees) and Otsego County (65.7% counted; Tedisco did 2.8% better than the machine count so far).

[cinyc]

According to Capitol Confidential, Murphy is up by 34 after Essex County's paper ballots were counted.  The Essex County count was Murphy 88, Tedisco 62, with 31 challenged ballots and likely 11 military and federal ballots left to be counted.

Murphy 77,678 (50.01%)
Tedisco 77,6644 (49.99%)
Difference 34

In Essex, County the counted ballots constituted 86.7% of the absentees reported in.  But the counted plus disputed ballots reflects 104.6% and counted plus disputed plus military/foreign ballots reflects 111.0% of the absentees reported in.  Either there are more absentees than reported by the NYS Board of Elections or the counties are also counting provisional ballots right now - the numbers of which have never been reported by anyone.

[cinyc]

If there are enough provisional ballots, that is the inside straight for Murphy I would think. Those puppies tend to have a substantial Dem bias, no?

That depends on how many provisional ballots there are (unknown) and whether Saratoga County or the military ballots can save Tedisco (again, unknown - and may not be known for a while).  Tedisco was up by 68 in the recanvassed machine count before paper ballots were counted.  So he does have some cushion.

Given the absentee results so far, I'd much rather be in Murphy's shoes than Tedisco's.  Every county but Otsego has been going better for Murphy than the machine count thus far.  Then again, the military absentees may reverse that advantage, for all we know.

[cinyc]

If there are enough provisional ballots, that is the inside straight for Murphy I would think. Those puppies tend to have a substantial Dem bias, no?

Alas, yes, people who don't know how to vote favor the Democrats.  But it matters a lot on local laws, Al Franken 100% won because of Minnesota's liberal ballot laws that declare that observable intent is sufficient... so if you voted Coleman but wrote in giant crayon all over the ballot "I HATE COLEMAN I REALLY WANT TO VOTE FOR FRANKEN, PLEASE CAST THIS VOTE FOR FRANKEN" ... well, it means something different than other states. 

NY also has ancient lever-machines that are less disputable than filling in bubbles...

I'm not sure on their laws.  If they're strict enough, the GOP bias of military absentees would overwhelm any uneducated err... new voter advantage for the Democrats.

In theory, the only people who would get provisional ballots in New York are folks who voted when the machines malfunctioned or folks who weren't registered in the precinct where they went to vote.  If I recall correctly, if the person's name wasn't on the roll because they moved within the county since they registered in it, the vote would be counted, but if they moved out of county or weren't registered in the county, it would not.  (I may be wrong on this.)

There shouldn't be a ton of provisional or other paper ballots in a New York special election.  Fortunately, that's not how we roll - yet.

[cinyc]

On the other hand, a simply shift of, say, 25 votes, could decide the election.


And then there's the prospect of disputed absentee ballots, which were probably not cast with lever-based machines

From my experience, New York absentees are usually punch-card ballots (at least Downstate).  There may a few hanging or dangling chads, but, IIRC the instructions specifically say to make sure you make a clean punch and remove the chad. 

And remember, as of right now we're only talking about 6,726 potential absentees with hanging chads, not millions like in other states.  And the universe of disputed ballots will be much smaller than that.

New York isn't Minnesota or Florida - yet.  HAVA might be changing that, unfortunately.

[cinyc]

The Poughkeepsie Journal has Murphy up by 55, with more absentee votes apparently in from Columbia, Dutchess and Rensselaer Counties.  Still no word from Saratoga, which is apparently waiting until all absentees are counted to release a tally - probably the right way to do things.

Edit: Adding the Essex County results from Capitol Confidential blog, Murphy's lead should be 81.

The Poughkeepsie Journal also reported that there were 740 "absentee, affidavit and other paper ballots, excluding military and federal ballots" in Dutchess County.   Yet the State Board of elections only reported 680 Dutchess absentees in, including 67 military and overseas absentees.  So if the Poughkeepsie Journal is correct, there are 60 or 127 other paper ballots to be counted in Dutchess, depending on whether the military absentees were backed out of the count.

[cinyc]

This race is so ridic, we really need to get the absentees counted before anyone picks up or gives up hiope

That's unlikely to happen.  Tomorrow is a quasi-holiday when a lot of people are trying to get away.  Dutchess County isn't going to resume counting absentees until Monday afternoon.  Saratoga doesn't appear to be anywhere close to done.  And Warren and Washington counties don't appear to have counted anything yet.

And then there's the matter of ruling on whether the objected to absentees should be counted.  It will be a slow crawl.

[cinyc]

NY-20 Update:

Murphy up by 46.

Delaware, Essex, Ostego, and Rensselear have finished counting paper ballots.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults041009.pdf

...except for military and overseas absentees, which will be opened on the 14th, and any objected-to ballots, which will be decided by the court in Poughkeepsie.

The Poughkeepsie Journal count had more of the Columbia County absentees in (and more Rensselear votes for Tedisco, for some reason).   Using the PJ's Columbia County numbers, Murphy would be up by 88.  Adding the unexplainable vote difference in Rennselaer, Murphy would be up by 79.