Colombian presidential election, June 17 2018

[WMS]

Sorry Man, Colombia is Hash's baby and I didn't want to touch it, instead waiting patiently for Hash to post something about this year's election.

If he ever does, that is

[WMS]

Hey, maybe the Colombian left can unify behind a good candidate and take advantage of splits on the right to finally win an election-

Petro? Dumbasses.

[WMS]

Hey, maybe the Colombian left can unify behind a good candidate and take advantage of splits on the right to finally win an election-

Petro? Dumbasses.

La izquierda unida jamás será izquierda, especially in Colombia where the left is even dumber than in France and which has a long history, since the 1940s, of revelling in its own divisions. The Colombian left was only briefly united between 2002-3 and 2006-7, which allowed them a certain degree of limited electoral success, but the left has been gradually fracturing ever since and the Polo slowly disintegrating with an emblematic figure leaving nearly every single year for over a decade. A good part of it is thanks to Petro, who can't be a behaved team-player in a collective party which isn't built around his own figure, although the dogmatism of certain 'radical' sectors in the Polo (including Robledo's MOIR) has contributed to running a lot of good people out of the party and further marginalizing the Polo (besides these same faction's boneheaded idiocy in sticking with the klepto Moreno brothers until the end and giving ammo to the right for a decade). I still find it particularly hilarious how Robledo's 'radical anti-neoliberal' (historically Maoist) MOIR basically pushed Clara López out of the party and seized control of the party machinery, only to ally with ni chicha ni limona Fajardo less than a year later (though credit to Robledo for accepting reality and stepping aside in the name of the greater collective interest).

Well, THAT was informative and has a ring of the People's Front of Judea to it

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Ick. A soft Chavista is not what I want to see, given that they without fail turn into authoritarians once in power. Which doesn't mean I want to see the authoritarian right in power either, mind you...

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Time for world politics to disappoint me yet again!

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I'd have to agree. One thing that strikes me even with my limited sources is just how much average Colombians hate the leftist guerrillas, and if the peace agreement is seen as letting them off the hook, well there you have it. And you know my viewpoint on Venezuela by now and I've found it interesting how Venezuela is used as a millstone to hang around the necks of the Latin American left...admittedly the left didn't do itself any favors by all but worshiping Hugo Chavez for many years.

[WMS]

So, Petro is pursuing the worst possible strategy in dealing with an actual problem, antagonizing those who might have been on his side otherwise? This seems familiar from somewhere or another...

And thus Petro will legitimately lose a fraudulent election.

Fajardo/Lopez might have earned my support were I a Colombian voter - real long-time denizens of this forum will recall me as an initial strong Uribe supporter (which I still stand by: for all his many horrible flaws he DID stop the FARC et al in their tracks, and in 2002 that wasn't seen as inevitable) and it's fair to say, especially after reading Hash's earlier works on Colombia, that I gradually would've drifted away into the soft Party of the U type or something as Uribe gradually went off the deep end. But a soft social democrat governing for a term or so might be good for Colombia *now*. Oh well. Looks like it will be the Uribist's turn again.

[WMS]

I've enjoyed your effortposts immensely, Hash, even if we probably wouldn't vote for the same people. If it's Duque vs Vargas Lleras, which option is worse?

[WMS]

I've enjoyed your effortposts immensely, Hash, even if we probably wouldn't vote for the same people. If it's Duque vs Vargas Lleras, which option is worse?

Always appreciate the positive feedback!

Colombia has an option for a 'blank vote' which counts as a valid vote, but that's a cop-out which lets others decide for you in nearly every single case (although I deliberately invalidated my vote twice last year in France, so I don't really care about that). Neither Duque or Vargas would be good presidents; forced to choose, Duque is the better person, although Vargas' policies would be less objectionable to me, although the outcomes would probably be pretty bad. My hope is that Duque's conservative posturing was a campaign ploy, and that he returns to being his former self and, more importantly, that he distances himself from Uribe at least a bit.

I'd probably vote for Fajardo, because he could be a passably decent president who doesn't burn everything down and because I'm a fan of Claudia López. In a perfect world, de la Calle would make a great president, but it isn't a perfect world so tough. That said, with LSV's quiz matching your personality to that of candidates, I got Duque (twice) so I may need to re-evaluate my personality.

No problem although whenever you have time an update (in your blog if nowhere else) explaining what happened in El Salvador would be much appreciated as well since I could tell something important had happened, but not quite what.

Hmm...in the case of that runoff a reluctant Duque vote from me. In the first round though...

Fajardo/Lopez might have earned my support were I a Colombian voter - real long-time denizens of this forum will recall me as an initial strong Uribe supporter (which I still stand by: for all his many horrible flaws he DID stop the FARC et al in their tracks, and in 2002 that wasn't seen as inevitable) and it's fair to say, especially after reading Hash's earlier works on Colombia, that I gradually would've drifted away into the soft Party of the U type or something as Uribe gradually went off the deep end. But a soft social democrat governing for a term or so might be good for Colombia *now*. Oh well. Looks like it will be the Uribist's turn again.

Yeah a crossover vote for Fajardo/Lopez from me. I'll give the soft left a chance to govern and see how they do. The Chavista left though, I'd rather vote the Uribists in than THEM.

Those are some seriously nice maps

[WMS]

However it's very late, so I will have more in-depth analysis and commentary on this map and the results more broadly tomorrow and in the coming days (as well as more analytical maps) -- in the hopes that someone is interested in my lengthier analysis and discussion, rather than the quick and easy tweets and whatever.

Doooooooooo iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit.

Well, damn it, I was within 2 percentage points of having someone to root for in the runoff. Because between a Uribist and a Chavist, I would very reluctantly vote for the Uribist, or just not vote. And as others in this thread have shown, there's plenty of actual Colombians who agree with me.

[WMS]

You may like him or dislike him, but regardless of what Uribe and his supporters say Petro isn't a Chavista. He has tried to explain during the campaign that his model has little to do with Venezuela. Also, he has condemned the "democratic involution" (or something in the like) triggered by Maduro in the neighbouring country. You can argue that he was a bit too late in making such statements. Anyway no: Gustavo Petro is a leftist but he's not "castrochavista" (translation: diehard supporter of Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro).  

Regarding Venezuela: is there a correlation between the strong performance in the city of Cúcuta and Norte de Santander department with the refugee flood?

Actually, I'd say it's not what the Uribists think of Petro that is going to sink him like the Titanic, it's what the Colombians between Uribe and Petro politically think of him that is going to sink him. Judging from what Hash has written since this post, Petro is going to have a hard enough time getting the left to all vote for him, much less the center. And that is because Petro, and his supporters like you, can't *convince* all those between Petro and Uribe that Petro isn't a castrochavista because Petro's background on that isn't the most convincing. Or in other words, too many voters have doubts about him.

Hash answered your question about how the Venezuelan refugee flood likely affected the vote there - as you suspected it made them more open to the Uribists. Which makes me wonder:

How much, if at all, is the violent Sandinista suppression of opposition in Nicaragua affecting things in Colombia? I figure it might be just yet another example that can be used against Petro and company on top of Venezuela and Cuba...

[WMS]

I prefer Petro over Duque/Uribe for obvious reasons. Ideological affinity is an important reason, but not the only one. Uribe and the coalition backing Duque represent reactionary, traditionalist and male chauvinist values that I dislike. I've never been a fan of Chávez, on the other hand. Petro admired him in the past, but distanced later. He has condemned Maduro, maybe too late. I know that Petro awakes fears and concerns among some people who voted for Fajardo in the first round. I know something about his career, virtues and flaws. Just to be clear: preferring Petro does not imply that I'm a big fan or a diehard supporter. I think that Petro is far from being perfect, but he has the support of large social sectors (the young, the poor, Amerindian, Afro-Colombian, etc) and is the undisputed leader of the Colombian left (despite senator Robledo). I don't think that Petro is chavista nowadays and neither is his platform. On the other hand, I never saw Petro as a viable candidate to defeat uribismo in the second round. If Ir was eligible to vote in Colombia, I would have a hard time in the first round choosing between him and Fajardo. I think the latter would have had more chances in the runoff and certainly he was good mayor of Medellín and is a decent person. Tactical vote would have been a possibility.

OK, this is very understandable. It's nice to see leftists who don't fall into the category of excusing Castro or Chavez just to stick it to the U.S. or because they actually believe in it *looks meaningfully over at Justin Trudeau*. Thanks for clearing that up. I bolded that really important sentence because as it turns out...

According to Claudia López, 63% of Fajardo's voters went for Petro, 25% for Duque, 10% voted blank and 2% didn't show up. She is a reliable source, and those numbers are in line with what the result was. In the next few days, I'll make maps showing where Petro gained the most support.

There it is. The missed opportunity to defeat uribismo and with Fajardo get some mild social democracy in Colombia.

Oh, of course the Uribista stooge won in a landslide.

The left should've been smarter then.

Duque won 83.3% in the neighbouring country, which is a major shift on 2014, since Santos won Colombians in Venezuela four years ago, so this is undoubtedly the result of living under castrochavismo firsthand.

Can confirm living under chavismo will make you despise anything remotely associated with them.

Given arguments in years past with leftists on this forum over Chavez and Castro - including with you, if I recall - I take some vindication in opposing them from the start. It is a horrifying dead end for leftist ideology and needs to stop being defended so the left can work on better alternatives to what the right is cooking up.

Superb analysis and commentary, Hash.

I genuinely hope that Duque can create a modern, democratic and legal conservative right in Colombia which moves away from the anachronistic far-right of Uribe and criminal paramilitarism, because Colombia needs a modern conservative right.

Here again, I genuinely hope Petro or somebody else can create a strong, modern, democratic left in Colombia which moves away from the caudillismo and whataboutism on Venezuela, because Colombia needs a strong, modern, democratic left.

I strongly agree with both of these positions. Not just in Colombia, either...

One question for Hash: once you've analyzed everything to your heart's content and have the data you want...could Fajardo have beaten Duque? And how, if so? Genuinely curious here.

[WMS]

I have lots more to say, but I'm not quite sure where to take this or if people have moved on to other things. Is there anything, or any particular region, you'd like me to do some analysis/commentary for?

Please continue. It's very interesting.

I even promise not to argue with Velasco in your thread about Venezuela.