on the record: nm-1

[WMS]

Wilson, in the range of 51-49 to 53-47.

[WMS]

Is it really that close over Patricia Madrid? Yikes!

Yeah, Madrid is a crappy candidate but this is one of those national atmosphere thingies - I see it impacting Wilson's numbers, but not swinging the district (there is also plenty of state and local atmosphere stuff to partially counteract this - the Dems have been rather naughty of late). In a normal year with no national trends, Wilson would be hitting another 55-45 ish victory. Even with this, Wilson is pulling about a fifth of the Democrats...

[WMS]

Wilson 52-47 or so.

Where does that 1% go to then?

[WMS]

Wilson 52-47 or so.

Where does that 1% go to then?

I always presume there's some no-name 3rd party that'll get a dissatisfied 1%.  Correct me if I'm wrong here, cause I often am when I haven't looked up who all is on the ballot. 

There are no minor party candidates in this race. There might be a write-in *thinks of a certain right-wing nut (Orlin Cole) who does write-ins for everything* but it is very rare for that to even come close to 1%. Mind you, there is a highly entertaining write-in in a state house race which might be another matter, but that's another story.

[WMS]

Yeah, Madrid is a crappy candidate but this is one of those national atmosphere thingies -

Madrid was supposed to be a superstar candidate, so this is big.

I saw that wasn't going to be the case quite some time back. A leftist machine hack is not a superstar. Now, compared with the guy who was going to run before Madrid changed her mind and entered the race, super-leftist state senator Gerald Ortiz y Pino, she's a superstar. But only in that light.