MI-Sen, PPP: Land in the lead (user search)
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  MI-Sen, PPP: Land in the lead (search mode)
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Author Topic: MI-Sen, PPP: Land in the lead  (Read 8377 times)
tmthforu94
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Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

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« on: December 11, 2013, 06:52:54 PM »
« edited: December 11, 2013, 06:54:39 PM by Senator Tmthforu94 »

It's worth noting that more undecided voters in this poll are conservatives than liberals. 10% of "Very Conservative" voters and 21% of "Somewhat Conservative" voters are undecided, compared to 7% of "Very Liberal" voters and 18% of "Somewhat Liberal Voters". Conservative voters also make up a great percentage of the electorate.

Now, my math skills are a bit rough, but based on this poll, if Land were to take 85% of conservative voters and 15% of liberal voters (which would be the rough numbers if all undecided voters on each side break towards the candidate closest to them politically), she would only need 40% of the moderate vote to be at 50% statewide.

Land is already at 32% with moderate voters, compared to 45% for Peters and 23% undecided. Land only needs to get 35% of undecided moderates to be at 50% statewide.

In conclusion, despite the comments by many on the left in this thread, if we were to assume this poll was completely accurate, undecided voters are more conservative and would likely hand the election to Land. Peter's will not only need to maintain his base, but also convince a vast majority of moderate voters and even some conservative voters who are undecided to his side.

On the other hand, more undecided voters voted Obama than Romney. Hence why a poll can be interpretative many different ways. Smiley Personally, this tells me that this is a winnable race for Republicans.
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tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2013, 03:09:38 PM »

Democrats were making similar arguments back in 2009 for the Gubernatorial race: "Democrats usually underpoll, we won't start leading until August 2010 or so." "Name recognition is the primary reason we're polling so low."

Republicans would be foolish to think they're favored to win here - it's going to take work. Democrats shouldn't be taking this for granted - if Snyder could win by 20 points in 2010, I'm sure a competent Republican could win an open Senate race.
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