probability that the following potential GOP candidates will run in 2012

[BlueSwan]

Palin - Will run for sure, but her image is in ruins right now, so I doubt that the GOP will be stupid enough to give her the nomination. The GOP proved this year that they'll nominate someone electable over "their own people". McCain was the only republican with a legitimate shot this year, so they went for him.

Huckabee - I'd bu surprised if he didn't run and I think he'd be in fairly good shape to secure the nomination. The GOP will have warmed to him and his media exposure and the fact that he has a very likable demeanor will do him good. Could very well be the nominee.

Guiliani - 9/11 will be 11 years in the past in 2012. His only shot was this year and he blew it in no uncertain terms.

Jindal - I'm not sold on this guy yet, but he's young, so he has the future ahead of him. As others have pointed out, unless Obama has low approval ratings in 2011, it would be stupid of Jindal to run for president at age 41 instead of seeking a second gubernatorial term.

Thune - This guy has some potential, but I agree with whoever compared him to John Edwards - he's got something lightweight about him. My feeling is that he'll give it a shot, but won't win the nomination.

Romney - Yeah, I definitely think he'll run. After all, what else should he do? His best play right now is to somehow plant the idea in the GOP that they really should have picked him this year, given that the election was all about the economy.

Crist - No way! Homo issue is too big.

Sanford - Doubt it, but I don't know all that much about him.

Pence - Doubt it, but I don't know all that much about him.

Gingrich - Gingrich is so 1994, so if he runs he won't get the nomination.

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Anyway, I think the GOP really should avoid picking a social conservative and go with a fiscal conservative instead. I really doubt that the US is gonna get more socially conservative over the next 4 years - infact I'm sure the demographics suggests the opposite. However, IF Obama is too "ambitious" economically, then a hardcore fiscal conservative may have a strong political foundation for a presidential campaign.