Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 214401 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #75 on: November 08, 2018, 05:38:52 PM »
In other news, we should get an AZ dump in a couple hours.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #76 on: November 08, 2018, 05:52:59 PM »
Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #77 on: November 08, 2018, 05:55:01 PM »

No, that has Debbie Wasserman Schultz on the ballot.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #78 on: November 08, 2018, 05:56:23 PM »
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 05:54:11 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:52:59 PM
Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area.

All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme.

In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #79 on: November 08, 2018, 05:58:30 PM »
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 05:56:50 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:56:23 PM
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 05:54:11 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:52:59 PM
Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area.

All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme.

In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23.

...and under 1% in every other county in Florida.

If you want to go that route, then correcting the total Broward error likely benefits Scott, not Nelson.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #80 on: November 08, 2018, 06:03:55 PM »
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 05:58:55 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:58:30 PM
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 05:56:50 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:56:23 PM
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 05:54:11 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:52:59 PM
Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area.

All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme.

In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23.

...and under 1% in every other county in Florida.

If you want to go that route, then correcting the total Broward error likely benefits Scott, not Nelson.

What makes you say that?

Scott had more undervotes countywide than Nelson, especially in FL-22 and FL-23.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #81 on: November 08, 2018, 06:31:53 PM »
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 06:30:55 PM
Arizona margin has been cut from 27K to 17K

The margin was 16K yesterday...
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #82 on: November 08, 2018, 06:34:07 PM »
I don't think the big AZ votes have started coming in yet. A few trickled in earlier. Unless someone has a link
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #83 on: November 08, 2018, 07:01:52 PM »
Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #84 on: November 08, 2018, 07:05:00 PM »
Quote from: pppolitics on November 08, 2018, 07:04:21 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 07:01:52 PM
Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes.

Is that all of it or is there more?

There should be plenty more.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #85 on: November 08, 2018, 07:06:40 PM »
Well, the only question is if the votes counted were a random sample of the total votes out. If so, then Sinema will win. If not, then who knows.
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RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #86 on: November 08, 2018, 07:10:33 PM »
Sinema won ~57% of that ~125K dump.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #87 on: November 08, 2018, 07:25:41 PM »
Broward supposedly finished their VBM and only has a few thousand (~4-6K) early votes left.
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RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #88 on: November 08, 2018, 09:08:14 PM »


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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #89 on: November 08, 2018, 09:29:57 PM »
The size of the undervote in the whole of Broward is closer to 20K than 30K, btw
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #90 on: November 08, 2018, 10:02:34 PM »
Quote from: Klepto Kemp on November 08, 2018, 09:38:20 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 09:29:57 PM
The size of the undervote in the whole of Broward is closer to 20K than 30K, btw
I think its 24k

Yes, but between the two major candidates it's only 21k.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #91 on: November 08, 2018, 10:19:23 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 08, 2018, 10:10:26 PM
So even before the undervote, it's possible that there is still enough votes left in the state to get Nelson the 15k? The hand count should be very interesting...

Since Broward is essentially done, it's highly unlikely Scott has less than a 10K lead going into the recount. The current margin shouldn't change a whole lot based on what's out. There simply aren't that many provisionals (10K at most) and military/overseas ballots tend to be a wash. There might be a few ballots in Palm Beach left, but not very many.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #92 on: November 08, 2018, 10:39:41 PM »
Christ, it's useless correcting you people. No one even reads the thread before they post.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #93 on: November 08, 2018, 10:41:28 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 10:40:46 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 10:39:41 PM
Christ, it's useless correcting you people. No one even reads the thread before they post.
I have read the thread, and you, as usual, aren't as well informed as you think.

The SOS site is not updated because the Broward County SOE has not transmitted the data yet! Read the f**king local reporters!
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #94 on: November 08, 2018, 10:43:33 PM »
Quote from: YE on November 08, 2018, 10:39:20 PM
Can someone explain why it's over if the 23K vote tabulation in a 85-15 Dem area is real and Nelson is down 13K with provisionals still outstanding? Is that too big of an if?

They are not in 85-15 territory. Most are not even in 67-33 territory.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #95 on: November 08, 2018, 10:44:06 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 10:42:38 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 10:41:28 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 10:40:46 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 10:39:41 PM
Christ, it's useless correcting you people. No one even reads the thread before they post.
I have read the thread, and you, as usual, aren't as well informed as you think.

The SOS site is not updated because the Broward County SOE has not transmitted the data yet! Read the f**king local reporters!

Then stop saying that Broward is finished, as it clearly isn't.

Except for provisionals and overseas, they are. The SOS page is not up to date.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #96 on: November 09, 2018, 02:25:18 PM »
One county is setting out to make Broward look good: https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/update-no-porter-county-election-results-until-at-least-friday/article_91b8db58-8ab4-5cbf-b232-d78cffb812de.html
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #97 on: November 13, 2018, 04:47:54 PM »
A properly designed rank-choice voting system should take maybe ten seconds to reallocate second choices.
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