I've gone through the Zogby polls and made an index based on RFK's favorables, his relative performance when replacing Trump/Biden, and the amount of voters undecided between Trump and Biden to construct an index of where RFK might perform best. The top ten states that come from this are:
1) Utah
2) Texas
3) Arkansas
4) Kentucky
5) Wyoming
6) Ohio
7) New Mexico
8
) Maine
9) Mississippi
10) Nebraska
Alaska is actually in the bottom ten states, as is Idaho. I think what people may be missing is that RFK does not appeal to the same people who we usually think of as NeverTrumpers. While he does absorb some of these voters in places like Utah, he's first and foremost not a candidate for the educated suburbs or typical libertarians.
He's a candidate looked fondly on by the working class of all races, excepting those in fossil fuel-heavy states like WV and PA due to his environmentalism.
Here's the full map of my index:
