NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[DaleCooper]

Even in Biden's worst polls, Cunningham is ahead of Tillis outside the margin of error in many cases. Honestly, I'm thinking that Collins might be Republicans' better shot at retaining the senate than Tillis at this point.

[DaleCooper]

I don't understand how these politicians can still think that they can get away with sending compromise material through text or email. The records of these messages never go away, you'd think everyone would know that by now.

[DaleCooper]

I'd be shocked if this wasn't completely lost in the news cycle before election day. Though being revealed to be a scumbag on a personal level is never good for a candidate so I could see low personal favorability seriously endangering him if 2026 is a Democratic midterm.

[DaleCooper]

Based on the crazy news that's happening now and will likely happen up until Election Day, I would guess that this has next to no effect.

It is disappointing, though.

[DaleCooper]

Madison Cawthorn is likely to get the same treatment Steve King got.

[DaleCooper]

Clearly this is going to drip-drip-drip all the way until election day. I expect more to surface, but if the next set of polls still show him ahead then I'd assume Cunningham is still favored.

[DaleCooper]

Wait why is everyone saying "goddamnit", wasn't it clear in the initial texts that they'd had sex? How does this change anything?

To me it seems like a clear sign that this story will drip-drip and stick around until election day. Also, it seems like a tossup whether or not nude images of him get leaked based on the information in the article.

[DaleCooper]

Wait why is everyone saying "goddamnit", wasn't it clear in the initial texts that they'd had sex? How does this change anything?

To me it seems like a clear sign that this story will drip-drip and stick around until election day. Also, it seems like a tossup whether or not nude images of him get leaked based on the information in the article.

If nude images get leaked the mistress will be prosecuted for revenge porn, which is a felony in North Carolina.

The law is clear on these matters.

They may not get leaked by her, if they exist, since the texts weren't received from her. But ultimately it wouldn't matter what happens to her. This story has the potential for "bombshell" developments every few days until election day and that uncertainty makes me uneasy about this race.

[DaleCooper]

I'm not sure how this will affect things, but it seems like every three days there's going to be a handful of new texts and the headlines that go along with them. Clearly Cunningham is unsure of how to respond.

[DaleCooper]

We'll just have to wait for the next set of polls. If Cunningham still leads by mid-single digits in polls conducted entirely after this incident, then he's probably not much worse off.

[DaleCooper]

Unless something truly damning is on the way, then I think Cunningham's best bet would be to continue talking about real political issues, not cancel any events, and when it comes up just say, "I made some poor decisions in my personal life, but that's between me and my family. What matters now is the state of the country . . ."

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/JJHunt10/status/1313877417044439053

I actually think that Cunningham could pretty easily keep "punting" on this. I don't think that Tillis whining about Cunningham's personal misconduct is a winning strategy in this political context. If Cunningham frames this as him trying to address issues relevant to NC while Tillis wants to be nosy and examine Cal's personal life, then that could hurt whatever Republicans are going for here.

It's unfortunate that Cunningham has turned out to be unlikable, but in the chaos of 2020, the statement "I care about the issues, my opponent only cares about private drama" is actually pretty compelling.

[DaleCooper]

I just read that the Army Reserves is "investigating", so that could be a wild card.

[DaleCooper]

From what I can gather, the woman Cunningham was with is still married to someone in the Army, but they are separated, so unless I'm mistaken it doesn't appear that Cal has victimized a fellow serviceman through his actions.