Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[DaleCooper]

I haven't followed this race at all but my prediction is that the liberal wins by more than people on Atlas think she will. This strikes me as an abortion-focused race and those have not gone the Republicans' way since the ayatollahs took down Roe v. Wade.

[DaleCooper]

I haven't followed this race at all but my prediction is that the liberal wins by more than people on Atlas think she will. This strikes me as an abortion-focused race and those have not gone the Republicans' way since the ayatollahs took down Roe v. Wade.

It seems that the narrative going into 2024 can be affirmed or lost because of this race.

I don't really have a narrative going into 2024. I have no idea what's going to happen. I just don't believe that Wisconsin voters are eager for a white trash Tea Party abortion ban. I could be wrong though.

[DaleCooper]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.

Bad weather hurts rural voters.

[DaleCooper]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.

And people won’t vote for someone like Protasiewicz who used the N word to refer to AAs (which will hurt Protasiewicz in places like Milwaukee) and who abused her first husband

https://www.wispolitics.com/2023/justice-kelly-campaign-comments-on-abuse-allegations-against-judge-protasiewicz

You are literally posting about stuff that was proven *Fake*. Are you serious right now?

Well to be fair, it wouldn't matter if it was fake if the media decided to run with it, but it sounds like this was a nothing story. I've never heard of it, but to be fair I'm not in Wisconsin.

[DaleCooper]

Will be very interesting if Prostaciewicz ends up winning decisively and you still have pundits who refuse to admit that abortion is a massive driving issue for voters. Would be ironic too given that Morning Consult just put out that poll about its power of "salience" dropping.

Regardless of who wins, the pundits will be at the nearest Denny's interviewing fat whites about how they're left behind or forgotten.

[DaleCooper]

Will be very interesting if Prostaciewicz ends up winning decisively and you still have pundits who refuse to admit that abortion is a massive driving issue for voters. Would be ironic too given that Morning Consult just put out that poll about its power of "salience" dropping.

Regardless of who wins, the pundits will be at the nearest Denny's interviewing fat whites about how they're left behind or forgotten.

There is a cure to being fat now, but it’s the price of a nice car payment, if not the rent for a tiny apartment. So it’s becoming more of itself.

Cure? You mean eating slightly less each day?

[DaleCooper]

Come in WI rurals , vote like how rural areas do in other states please

I never took you for one to support 1849 abortion bans?

I care far more about maintaining right to work laws , and Walker’s regulatory reform laws than I do about abortion laws

But do you care more about right to work than democracy? Dan Kelly is an election denier.

No one cares what he thinks about Democracy! People come to these threads to get election results, not to hear the exact same bullsh-t "debates" they hear in every single US General Discussion thread. Please spare us.

[DaleCooper]

The GOP-e has to come to terms with the fact that its current base isn't going to show up for low turnout specials, primaries, and off-year elections. The voter suppression scams of 2010/2014 won't work -- they need to target higher turnout elections.

This was a very high turnout election.

[DaleCooper]

How long until blue Ozaukee?

Possibly in the next Supreme Court election if the GOP campaigns on banning everything they don't like again.

[DaleCooper]

This is not a particularly impressive performance for Wisconsin Democrats. The WISC in 2020 was won by a similar margin by Wisconsin Democrats.

LMAO, the Liberal pulls an +11 win in Wisconsin during a Democratic president (and not on the same day as a presidential primary) and it's not "impressive"? Seriously go touch grass.

His posts read like AI.

[DaleCooper]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

Because we run candidates who suck at raising money and former losers, yes.

Dorow would have sadly still probably have lost, but in no universe would she have collapsed in WOW or as many deep red counties like Kelly did. She would have atleast tried campaigning. And if she was the nominee, then Knodl would have won comfortably

Even good Republican candidates have to overcome the terrible people at the head of the party. Why would anyone who cares about abortion rights consider voting for a Republican judge, especially after the Trump ayatollahs blatantly lied during their confirmations about Roe v. Wade? You can run great candidates but they're still going to run into the problem of the big picture GOP just being terrifying to most voters.   

[DaleCooper]

Wisconsin rejected a MAGA judge by a double digit margin? Based. It's too unfortunate ElectionsGuy has dropped out of the forum. Heck, this is his homestate.

His final post was that he was considering leaving the forum because we were all too stupid to see that Hassan was going to lose. I'd be shocked if he has the balls to show himself again after his behavior in the months leading up to the 2022 elections.

[DaleCooper]

Wisconsin rejected a MAGA judge by a double digit margin? Based. It's too unfortunate ElectionsGuy has dropped out of the forum. Heck, this is his homestate.

His final post was that he was considering leaving the forum because we were all too stupid to see that Hassan was going to lose. I'd be shocked if he has the balls to show himself again after his behavior in the months leading up to the 2022 elections.

I can see why he isn't posting anymore. His final prediction post which was very confident turned out to be very wrong.

Not only very wrong, but one of the worst predictions on the entire website.

[DaleCooper]

Hot take: Wisconsin in 2020-2024 could be more like Florida from 2000-2004 and on.

Remember after 2000, most people thought Florida was trending Democratic and it was just a matter of time until the state turned blue. One would have cited trends in Palm Beach, Broward, Orange, Hillsborough to support this conclusion. However, the GOP got a massive swing in Northern Florida but Dems still had 40-45% in many counties, not to mention they won heavy WWC Pasco, Hernando and Volusia. Dems also stalled out in South Florida and the trend in Palm Beach/Broward reversed a bit. Analysts missed how far to the right these places could swing and how GOP heavy the retiring baby boomers became.

In Wisconsin, much has been made of the rural trend toward the GOP, especially in the driftless and northwest/central part of the state. However, it is becoming clear that Waukesha and Ozaukee with near 50% college grads have trended Dem and yet still have a ton of room for the GOP to fall. OTOH, one wonders if the GOP will stall out a bit in the rurals, even a woke urban candidate like Mandela Barnes only ran 1-2% worse here.

Additionally, exit polls suggest Wisconsin Dems are very strong with voters under 45. This might enable Dems to replace lost older voters over the 2020s and 2030s.

If we want to make another comparison to Florida, 2022 in Wisconsin almost felt a bit like Florida for the Democrats (if Nelson had hung on, of course). It seemed like a clear victory for them ahead of time in Governor and Senate and they nearly lost both. Come to think of it, if Wisconsin Senate had been seriously contested, Johnson would've lost.

[DaleCooper]

Cope harder

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1687190869814755330

Scott Walker's legacy is gonna be wiped out now ugh.

When your "legacy" is as sh-t as his then it's inevitable.

[DaleCooper]

Why should she recuse herself? There is no logic here, but that seems pretty typical for Republicans now.

[DaleCooper]

It's already kind of hard to imagine Wisconsin Republicans winning Supreme Court elections anytime soon. This is the type of stunt that could be used against them in local and state elections for well over a decade.

[DaleCooper]

It's already kind of hard to imagine Wisconsin Republicans winning Supreme Court elections anytime soon. This is the type of stunt that could be used against them in local and state elections for well over a decade.

They don’t care, they have the state gerrymandered that they would still get almost a supermajority even in a bad showing.

The state will not be gerrymandered for long now that they have lost the Supreme Court

[DaleCooper]

Most of the articles I'm encountering seem to be some variation of "Dems in Disarray!" or "Bad news for Biden." Is this BS? I don't really know what I'm looking at with these results.

[DaleCooper]

Are people seriously trying to make projections and predictions on federal elections based on mayoral elections again?

That's the sort of thing that normies would never do but people at places like here overthink so much they actually do. It's that "What if Newsom appoints Kamala Harris to Feinstein's seat?" sort of thing.

If people's water bills went up then of course the mayor lost. This happens in deep red places too where a random Democrat wins because of very few voters and an incumbent that's perceived to have cost the public something. It's not like the Republicans flipped the Supreme Court back or something like that.