NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not Tillis related, but Congress insider trading inquiry looks 'particularly damning' for Senator Burr, expert says.

At what point is Burr's resignation too late for a special election to be held in November? Possible Mitch is seeing the way the winds are blowing with Cunningham/Tillis and is having Burr hold out.

The election law they've published online says a special election for US Senator will occur at the next election for the NC General Assembly (which is up in 2020), provided that election day is more than 60 days after the original vacancy occurred (so, at the latest, he'd have to leave on Sept. 3).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not Tillis related, but Congress insider trading inquiry looks 'particularly damning' for Senator Burr, expert says.

At what point is Burr's resignation too late for a special election to be held in November? Possible Mitch is seeing the way the winds are blowing with Cunningham/Tillis and is having Burr hold out.

The election law they've published online says a special election for US Senator will occur at the next election for the NC General Assembly (which is up in 2020), provided that election day is more than 60 days after the original vacancy occurred (so, at the latest, he'd have to leave on Sept. 3).

What's stopping him from doing what Ralph Northam did in the wake of his blackface scandal?

I get that a lot of Republicans in congress and popular figures on the right have called for him to step down, but a lot of prominent democrats called for Ralph Northam to resign too. All northam had to do in the words of Deng Xiaoping "bide our time, be good at maintaining a low profile, and never claim leadership". Northam did that in a media cycle that was much slower so why can't Burr do the same?

Northam may well have survived because his heir and his spare had scandals around the same time period; the resignation of all three would have put a Republican in power, so partisanship insulated him in the short term. Then, African-Americans carried the VA Democrats to victory in 2019 (the party didn't seem to be particularly hindered by Northam's earlier scandal at that point), so much of the Democratic electability case for booting him out died.

Burr might not want to brave political controversy if he intends to go into business soon anyway (he announced his retirement from the Senate in 2022 well before this scandal broke). There is no 'heir and a spare' issue protecting him, but McConnell may want him to hold the Seat until 2022 because it will be easier to defend in what will probably be a Democratic midterm. Getting convicted wouldn't automatically disbar him from the Senate (except in the case of treason), but he wouldn't be able to vote from prison and a supermajority of Senators could remove him (IIRC those who could remove Northam were the very same people who were mired in their own controversies).

Trump might not see much downside to putting another NC Senator up considering that he probably needs to win NC anyway, and could perhaps do with a stronger ally than Burr (who could also be controversial within the Republican base depending on what the investigation brings to light). I think the most likely compromise is that they get him to resign within 60 days (or after) the election, so that they can appoint an incumbent ready for 2022 without risking the loss of the seat.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

He could easily screw it up though if he wasn't good. Turns out he's the exact candidate that fits NC.

He can still screw it up. Fundraising numbers are a very weak indicator compared to his less-than-stellar polling.

He's probably better than average, but the windowless basement, consultant-driven strategies carries plenty of its own risks (Jeff Jackson would seem to have been a better choice here, but perhaps - as previously alluded to - the DSCC rejected him because of skeletons in the closet) and his relative lack of a previous political record in the state (unlike e.g. Roy Cooper) means he's far from the strongest candidate.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

He could easily screw it up though if he wasn't good. Turns out he's the exact candidate that fits NC.

He can still screw it up. Fundraising numbers are a very weak indicator compared to his less-than-stellar polling.

He's probably better than average, but the windowless basement, consultant-driven strategies carries plenty of its own risks (Jeff Jackson would seem to have been a better choice here, but perhaps - as previously alluded to - the DSCC rejected him because of skeletons in the closet) and his relative lack of a previous political record in the state (unlike e.g. Roy Cooper) means he's far from the strongest candidate.

"less than stellar polling"? He's consistently been up in numerous polls in a state that Trump won in 2016, what?

The lead hasn't been consistent and it has skewed slightly lower than Biden's more often than not in recent months. It's not remarkably lower and may be mostly down to name ID, but it's hardly the mark of a star recruit (unlike Mark Kelly).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cunningham is neither a "meh" nor a "star" recruit, he’s a generic Democrat who’s lucky that he’s running in a Democratic wave year.

True, though that’s pretty much what Tillis was in 2014.

Tillis had a much more notable political record.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/nrsc/status/1298251503942209537?s=21
This is so awful lmao

The Democratic Party often ignores its base, but it still understands it better than your average Congressional Republican.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cunningham pitches to the anti-vaxx crowd:

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1305648855791341574

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

U.S. Senate candidate Cal Cunningham admits to sexual texting with California strategist


North Carolina U.S. Senate candidate Cal Cunningham, a married father of two, sent text messages of a sexual nature to a woman who is not his wife, his campaign confirmed Friday night.

The text messages between Cunningham and Arlene Guzman Todd, a public relations strategist from California, were first reported Thursday night by NationalFile.com.

The report included pictures of the text messages, in which Cunningham and Guzman, who is also married according to the report, talked about kissing each other and more.

"You are historically sexy," was actually real? LMAO

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yikes, adults can be stupid.

Strong Lean D -> Weak Lean D, which isn't that bad on face value, but considering how likely this is to be the tipping point seat, that isn't great news.

Overall though, none of these "scandals" has really had impacted on any down ballot races, like Hickenlooper with the ethics scandal still seems in a position to win handily and only slightly underperform Biden

My guess is that it's not going to make any more than 1-2% in terms of electoral impact, but there are some key differences:

1. Historically, voters have cared disproportionately about sex/relationship scandals (even more than corruption). Trump might have changed this, but I doubt it's gone for good given that the most partisan Republicans have leant into calling their opponents deviants.

2. Hickenlooper has a history his shady dealings can be compared against. I don't know how Cunningham was getting the overperformance he seemed to be achieving until now, but it looked like his strategy was to market himself as a generic moderate D with character points for being a veteran (these points are now easily cancelled out). He must have been doing something right to avoid the Tillis campaign's attempts to define him so far, but without much of a record, it's going to be easier than it should be to ensure one of the few things voters actually know about Cunningham is his infidelity.

3. Cunningham seemed to be doing really well by winning crossover support. This is much easier to lose than reluctant Democratic support for Hickenlooper.

Cunningham can take a bit of comfort in the fact that NC has a history when it comes to cheating Democratic Senators.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Will definitely be funny if the South Carolina seats flips but not the North Carolina seat because of this.

The ultimate insane ending to this insane election cycle.

The pundits' take: "Carolina voters supported family values"

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Why him? Why not recruit Jeff Jackson or Josh Stein? I'm sure that with them chances to defeat Tillis would be far, far higher

NC has duds as Washington representatives. Dole, Edwards, Virginia Foxx, Burr, Hagan, Tillis.

I was looking for counterpoints to this and your earlier point regarding NC electing terrible Senators and I have to admit, the crappiness goes back a long way. I presume most Democrats liked Hagan, but otherwise there isn't much to be impressed with: AFAIK most Republicans find Tillis kind of mediocre and Democrats dislike him, John Edwards was a scumbag, Elizabeth Dole was an awful campaigner, Burr practised insider trading, Faircloth barely served and then you are back to Jesse Helms (ugh) and Terry Sanford. A quick skim of Sanford's bio suggests he was kind of effective for the one term in which he served but he was clearly dissatisfied with the job.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.

Senator Bob Hugin sends his regards.

Menendez won by 12% while Democrats won the House PV by 20% despite Republicans having most of the incumbency advantages. It's clear these things can have an impact, but it's hard to swing a federal race super heavily unless it's something really really bad, and someone cheating is certainly not the worst scandal.

Especially if Cunningham can make the case that he's the victim of a literal crime, which is looking pretty likely. Yeah, he's right to be honest and apologize, but this woman is straight-up blackmailing him.

"Why is Cunningham outperforming Biden's margin with a high number of undecided voters winning over Trump supporters? A look at bipartisan backlash to #metoo gone too far." - Chris Cillizza

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's a shame this came out so close to the election. The ballots are already being sent out and returned.

If this damages Cunningham... Isn't that a good thing for him, since a lot of people who may now not vote for him already voted for him?

Some voters just keep the last few news cycles in mind when they enter the polling booth. These probably outnumber those who've already voted and would otherwise be against Cunningham.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/counterfax/status/1314629697431576577

It's actually the horny jail in Chuck Schumer's windowless basement.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/josh_posts/status/1315773909309030400

Celebrating adultery and home-wrecking to own the cons.  Guess it just goes to show that there are plenty of shameless partisan hacks in the Democratic Party too.  

Actually, it's even worse than that.  You can want Cunningham to win despite his scandal because this could be the tipping point seat for control of the Senate.  Fair enough, but that doesn't change the fact that Cunningham is a lying, pathetic excuse for a human being.  What he did was unjustifiable and utterly reprehensible.  A Democratic Senate majority is worth tolerating him for six years, but that doesn't make Cunningham any less of a deplorable scumbag.

Moreover, celebrating him for being a home-wrecking adulterer just because he happens to be a Democrat is precisely the sort of morally bankrupt partisan hackery that folks here are always complaining about whenever Trump supporters say they don't care about Trump's scandals.

We are laughing about him being up in the polls as a result but I don't think anyone here holds him in higher regard for his reprehensible (and hilariously cringeworthy) behaviour. I guess some of these memes stray close to 4chan-esque celebration of Access Hollywood but for the most part they are just poking fun at the doomers and the people arguing this provides a good reason to switch to supporting Tillis for most Cunningham voters.

I hope I haven't implied otherwise at any point and am probably going to support a 2026 primary challenge.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cal underperforming Biden by 2 pts.   NYT needle for NC is leaning Trump.
I think Tillis is going to win this.

It has swung back and forth there. I'd still bet on Cunningham being marginally more favoured.