🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Today's the Durham byelection.  And given how the Cons are polling in general, the biggest shock would be if they miss a majority--though I wouldn't discount that likelihood...

Maybe I'm too plugged in to angry Twitter people, but I think Jivani is going to underperform expectations a bit. Nowhere near enough to lose, but somewhat similar to what happened in Oxford last year. Maybe I'm underestimating just how much the tide has turned against the Liberals since then, but I'd take the under on whether the Tories crack 50%.

Depends on what expectations for Jivani are, which I don't think are very clear-cut due to the lack of polling and the leader boost O'Toole may have gotten in 2021. I don't think this is comparable to Oxford though, the dynamics are totally different. The Oxford byelection was completely botched by CPC HQ, Khanna was the HQ-imposed parachute candidate who didn't live in the riding, and was nominated ahead of well-connected locals (incl. retiring MP Dave McKenzie's own daughter), McKenzie endorsed the Liberal candidate in retaliation, it was a total mess. Not to mention, the Oxford byelection happened before summer 2023 when we saw the biggest shift in the polls, before that summer it wasn't unusual to see LPC and CPC neck-and-neck in Ontario. Now, it's not unusual to see the CPC 20 points ahead.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Totally unsurprising. Nobody asked for my take, but here it is:

Conservatives: Pretty good result, all things considered. 50% was kind of the benchmark, and with about half the polls reporting, Jivani's sitting at 55% - which is also what 338Canada currently has the riding as. Better yet, he seems to be climbing up. After so many byelections where the CPC totally underperformed, this is in line with the polls, the same polls that have the CPC in a comfortable majority. Yeah, I'm happy with that. A good performance in an Ontario riding is also good, even though this riding isn't that reflective of most of the GTA.

Liberals: 23% right now. Again, pretty much in line with the polling and overall trends. Seems like the Liberal GOTV machine is still humming along, there just aren't as many Liberal voters to turn out as there used to be. But they could still run surprisingly competitive in the suburbs.

NDP: 11% right now, which is not good. I know the NDP tends to underperform in byelections, but again it's all about that GOTV machine. The Elmwood-Transcona byelection will be more important for the NDP. The message we're getting from Durham though is that the Liberal vote isn't going NDP, which is bad news for the latter.

I'll also mention the PPC because I really didn't think they'd be hovering around 5% with half the polls reporting, which is basically what they did in 2021 (5.5%). All while Jivani is currently 9 points up from where O'Toole finished (as leader, no less), and inching close to 10.

Important caveat: Almost nobody is voting. It's basically a school council election. 12.58% of eligible voters have voted so far, and we've already counted 68% of the vote, which would put us at a turnout of 18.4%. It's hard to take much away when over 4/5 of the eligible electorate doesn't bother to turn up.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Getting over 10% is important since it qualifies a candidate to get half of all election expenses rebated by Elections Canada...it will be interesting to see how much each party actually spent in this byelection.

The Tories likely spent the maximum allowed by law during the writ period which is about $100,000, plus I'll bet the Tories also spent a vast sum before the byelection was called when they could spend as much as they wanted.

The Liberals likely spent a decent amount - maybe $60k to $70k

I'd wager that the NDP spent very, very little here - like maybe $5,000 (meaning that getting over 10% might save them $2,500).

FWIW back in 2013 there was a federal byelection in Durham when O'Toole was first elected. That time the NDP made a fully funded effort and threw everything but the kitchen sink at the seat - they managed to come in second with 26% but still wayyyyy behind the Tory. Moral of the story is unless you are rolling in dough, its a waste of money to spend the maximum just to lose by a slightly smaller margin

That may be so, but this is the seventh byelection in the current parliament, and in every single one of them, the NDP has lost vote share from 2021. It's understandable, sure, the NDP relies more on low-propensity voters who might not turn out in a byelection, they have less money to spend, and none of the seven byelections have been held in realistic NDP targets. But the higher end of polling currently has the NDP in a statistical tie with the Liberals. If they want to leapfrog the LPC, which they should absolutely be aiming for, they need to show something. Because if I'm an ABC voter whose main priority is stopping Poilievre, these last few byelections have given me zero reason to think that the NDP are a viable option.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Because if I'm an ABC voter whose main priority is stopping Poilievre, these last few byelections have given me zero reason to think that the NDP are a viable option.

I have news for you - NO ONE is going to stop Poilievre. The Tories will win the next election its a 100% certainty unless a meteor hits the earth. It won't matter of you vote Liberal or vote NDP or vote Green or vote Rhino (do they still exist) - the Tories will win. The only issue in the next election will be the balance of power between Liberals and NDP on the opposition benches.

The whole strategic voting argument only makes sense IF you live in a marginal seat and IF there is any doubt whatsoever as to who will win the election. The current situation is reminding me of the 1984 election - at the start of that campaign people thought the NDP was doomed (for a variety of reasons) - but once it became clear that the Tories under Mulroney were going to win in a landslide, people in ridings where the NDP had incumbents running or were clearly competitive "came home" to the NDP since it was clear that the Liberals were 100% certain to lose no matter what.  

Oh you don't have to sell me on strategic voting being a crock for the most part. Lucky for me, I'm not an "ABC" voter, I'm a "C" voter.

Let me rephrase - its not so much about who can stop Poilievre, strategic voting isn't going to overcome a 20 point lead. But take downtown Toronto for example, where you don't really need to "stop the conservatives" in any election, because the conservatives simply don't win seats in that part of the world. Despite that, the region ALWAYS coalesces around whichever progressive party looks stronger. Urban progressives won't pick the next government, but they could very well pick the next opposition, which should be the NDP's goal. But getting 10% in Durham, even in a byelection, is objectively a poor performance, and I can't see this helping their confidence.

Of course, things could change. It wasn't that long ago that the CPC was having embarrassing showings in byelections. But it's not like things just magically changed, the CPC rebranded Poilievre to the point that he actually has net positive favourables (which no CPC leader has had in a decade), and the CPC actually has message discipline now, which was lacking under Scheer and certainly under O'Toole. So I don't think it's a matter of just waiting for Trudeau to slip on enough banana peels to cede second place to the NDP, they actually need to have a real plan to turn support into votes.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think there clearly is a time when public sentiment gets set in stone so it won't change no matter what happens (this imaginary external event that some Liberals joke about.) I think the polling has been consistent enough for long enough to say that we are here now federally no matter what happens.

I saw this in 2000-2001 in B.C as well (although for some reason the polling slightly underestimated NDP support.)

What does everybody else here think?

Yeah I agree. I just can't think of any election in Canadian politics where a governing party comes back from the kind of unpopularity the Liberals are seeing right now. Now when governments poll this badly, sometimes it leads to a third party surging to first place. Mike Harris in 1995 comes to mind, arguably even Trudeau himself in 2015. I don't see that coming from the NDP in 2025, but there's at least a historical precedent. And there's plenty of historical precedent for a third party to jump into official opposition. But when a government polls this badly, they have historically never come back to actually win.

Preventing a CPC majority is a more realistic goal, and I do think the polls narrow a bit once we get into an election campaign. But when you're 20 points down, even holding them to a minority is a tough task. 338Canada currently projects a 98% chance of a Conservative majority, because with the current polling numbers it's basically guaranteed. And the crazy thing is, we don't even know the CPC's ceiling. It used to be 40%, now it's inching closer to 45%. There's not going to be some a-ha moment where Canadians suddenly come back to the Liberals, it's going to be a real fight. In a 40-30 environment, sure maybe you can swing just enough points and force a Conservative minority. In a 45-25 environment? Forget it.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Preventing a CPC majority is a more realistic goal, and I do think the polls narrow a bit once we get into an election campaign. But when you're 20 points down, even holding them to a minority is a tough task. 338Canada currently projects a 98% chance of a Conservative majority, because with the current polling numbers it's basically guaranteed. And the crazy thing is, we don't even know the CPC's ceiling. It used to be 40%, now it's inching closer to 45%. There's not going to be some a-ha moment where Canadians suddenly come back to the Liberals, it's going to be a real fight. In a 40-30 environment, sure maybe you can swing just enough points and force a Conservative minority. In a 45-25 environment? Forget it.

However, we're dealing with a circumstance outside of the writ period--and as we know from past elections, the modern-era CPC has tended to be overcome by an "unlikeability problem" once the campaign's underway.  Thus I can actually see Con support *receding*--even if not enough to prevent a majority; and that's because PP's no Mulroney, or Dief.  Essentially, it's pure "throw the bums out" angst at this point...

I hear you, that's why I think the polls will narrow closer to the actual election. Going into the election as massive frontrunners will also invite more scrutiny than normal, and there's the possibility that some "get the bums out" voters aren't very motivated to actually vote CPC. On the unlikability thing though, I think it's worth pointing out that unlike the CPC leader in the last three elections, Poilievre has been polling positively in both favourability ratings and preferred PM polls with a certain degree of consistency. But that's a whole another topic.

But even if the CPC's surge is purely a product of voter frustration, I think the size of the gap matters. It's harder to blow a 20-point lead than a 15-point lead, a 10-point lead than a 5-point lead, and so on.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Did Bonnie ever take a position on the 413? Surely you would think that would be a major issue in this by-election given the proximity to the new highway, and it serving much of Milton.  Most people in Milton (of all stripes) want the highway.

Doesn't look like she's taken a position on it since becoming leader. PCs have put out messaging that she's anti-413, but she hasn't said anything as leader. But as mayor, she spoke out against it in 2021, which is what the Tories are alluding to.

Avoiding the issue was probably the best play for the Milton byelection though. Taking a strong stance either way would just open up the Liberals to easy attacks on a losing issue. This is an issue where average suburbanites and environmentalists are opposed to each other, and Liberals need both in their column.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Not looking good for the Liberals in Milton with 1/3 of the polls reporting.

I was gonna ask, where are you getting results? Elections Ontario doesn't have it, nor Grenier

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

But it's a must win for the Liberals, because it's the kind of seat they need to get if they want a majority.

Never mind a majority - its the kind of seat they need to get if they even want to regain official party status! This was one of their near misses in 2022 when they only won 9 seats. They ought to be able to pick up Milton even if they just had a "dead cat bounce" and gained 10 seats

Milton is deceivingly Liberal.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Not looking good for the Liberals in Milton with 1/3 of the polls reporting.

I was gonna ask, where are you getting results? Elections Ontario doesn't have it, nor Grenier

https://rtr.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/en/electoral-district

I'd say it's a Progressive Conservative hold.

Thanks. I was thinking about Milton when I clicked on the link, didn't realize I was looking at LKM numbers. Milton's not quite a 56-23 lead for the PCs lmao.

But yeah Milton looks like a PC hold, and not even particularly close tbh. Considering they barely held on in 2022, never mind the margins Van Koverden gets federally, a 10 point lead is very good for the PCs.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This seemed pertinent.

https://twitter.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1782486999720509910

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

While letting the Tories widen the gap in a seat like Milton is undoubtedly an embarrassment for the Liberals, some OLP people are claiming that federal dynamics made it hard for them to turn out voters, because not many people are interested in voting for someone who calls themselves a Liberal right now due to its association with the federal government (maybe they should change their name? Ontario United, maybe?) But if this really is a significant factor, the silver lining for Ontario Liberals is that by 2026, this may no longer be an issue.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Oh, and Xiao Hua Gong, the guy who ran in the Toronto mayoral by-election by spamming the city with his election signs and his AI generated campaign speeches is also running.

Godspeed, Mr. Gong. Hopefully the deep state doesn't cheat him out of Mississauga the way they cheated him out of Toronto.

https://twitter.com/Gong4Mayor/status/1673766797936304128

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Liberal MP for Cloverdale-Langley City is resigning his seat to run for the BC NDP in this year's election. Should be a relatively easy CPC pickup.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Liberal MP for Cloverdale-Langley City is resigning his seat to run for the BC NDP in this year's election. Should be a relatively easy CPC pickup.

Jumping off a sinking ship to be a sacrificial lamb? OK

Running for the NDP in Langley-Abbotsford is certainly a choice. 338Canada currently has the NDP at 29% support with a 2% chance of winning. Yet in Cloverdale-Langley City, LPC is projected to get 26% with 0% chance of winning. On top of that there's the uncertainty of whether or not this BC Conservative wave is actually going to last the writ period, and somehow, this might actually be the smarter play for John Aldag.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm hearing that the CPC is running a much stronger ground game in Toronto St. Paul's. But the good thing for LPC is that the NDP isn't going to seriously contest this seat. So in that sense, letting the Tories flex their muscles and superior campaign funding early on is probably a smart play, because with the absence of any other viable centre-left option, a late Liberal push should be enough to turn out just enough ABC voters in this generally left-leaning riding with a low Tory ceiling.

So I still have this as a likely LPC hold, with the caveat that if it isn't a LPC hold, it could very well spell the end of this government, or at least the Prime Minister. Neither Harper nor Ford could flip it in their three majorities, this riding shouldn't be voting Conservative short of a supermajority landslide.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If I was a Liberal in St. Paul’s I’d be tempted to vote Tory in the byelection just to get Trudeau to quit!

Jokes aside, to the extent that any Liberals see Trudeau's resignation as a panacea, look across the pond. Granted, the UK Tories over the past few years have seemed far, far more incompetent than the LPC, and that's a pretty low bar. But even John Turner and Kim Campbell right here in Canada, chosen to revitalize the party following the resignation of an unpopular PM. Leadership changes can often have the exact opposite effect if you choose the successor poorly.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The NDP aren't even trying in St. Paul's? Ugh.

I should be clear, I don't actually know that they're "not trying" in St. Paul's, so I'm not suggesting that. But I think it's a very safe guess that the NDP aren't serious contenders in this byelection, and the NDP's byelection strategy this parliament seems to be to only contest seats they have a realistic shot of winning. So I feel very confident in saying the NDP probably aren't going to be serious contenders here.

If they decide to really fight it though (maybe try to piggyback off of Jill Andrew's provincial incumbency), that would make things interesting, and probably help the CPC by not allowing the Liberals to be the ABC vote bank.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Funnily enough, the Liberals are running a federal Conservative in the race

This is what the Liberal candidate had to say in a CBC interview:

"I think Mr. Furey is the man of the hour," Bury told CBC News in a recent interview.

...

Burt said he hasn't hidden his ties to the Conservative Party or his friendship with [CPC MP Clifford] Small. His issue, he said, is with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
"I don't like the way that our prime minister is taking the country, and I think the Liberals need to make a change at the top there."

So it sounds like he's not exactly a fire breathing conservative, more like an ancestral Newfoundland Liberal who's not too happy with Trudeau's LPC. He lost the byelection, but he seems pretty representative of political trends in NL right now.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Really weird thing about Newfoundland politics. Rural-urban polarization is nothing new there, but traditionally it's the rurals that favour Liberals and St. John's favouring Tories, including at the federal level - as recently as 2006 when Harper won the two St. John's seats while losing the 5 rural seats.

To make things even weirder, if I'm not mistaken, the St. John's area is traditionally the Irish Catholic dominated part of the province, while the rest of the island is more protestant and Anglo-Saxon.

So that's urban Irish Catholics favouring Tories, and rural WASPs favouring Liberals. This unusual polarization seems to be fading and polarization is heading in a more "normal" direction, i.e. rural right and urban left. But I can't think of any other part of the Anglosphere where the Catholics were traditionally the Tories, and protestants were more anti-Tory.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The NDP aren't even trying in St. Paul's? Ugh.

I should be clear, I don't actually know that they're "not trying" in St. Paul's, so I'm not suggesting that. But I think it's a very safe guess that the NDP aren't serious contenders in this byelection, and the NDP's byelection strategy this parliament seems to be to only contest seats they have a realistic shot of winning. So I feel very confident in saying the NDP probably aren't going to be serious contenders here.

If they decide to really fight it though (maybe try to piggyback off of Jill Andrew's provincial incumbency), that would make things interesting, and probably help the CPC by not allowing the Liberals to be the ABC vote bank.

It depends on what one's barometer of "aren't serious contenders" is (i.e. is the recent mid-to-high-teens norm a reflection of seriousness or unseriousness?).  And remember that the Ford majorities didn't prevent the provincial Tories from finishing 3rd twice in a row.  So don't discount the likelihood of the NDP being a joint ABC *and* ABL vote bank, an alternative for those deep-Laurentian types who want to punish Justin but can't stomach voting for PP (though unlike in '18, the NDP aren't broadly benefiting from overtaking the Libs in the polls).

By "serious contender", I simply mean whether or not they have a serious chance of actually winning the seat. Which I think makes sense in this context, because the NDP doesn't seem to be putting quite as much effort into byelections where they don't really have a chance of flipping it. Not that there's anything wrong with that given the NDP's current polling and perennially cash-strapped bank account. Elmwood-Transcona is up soon, holding that seat merits more resources than flexing their muscles in St. Paul's.

You might have a point though that the NDP could serve as both ABC and ABL in this riding, given the demographics. Liberals numbers are abysmal and only seem to get lower, but Tories likely have a pretty hard ceiling here, and we've seen how the combination of these two factors can boost the NDP, e.g. how the ONDP unexpectedly flipped this very riding in 2018 and held it in 2022. But byelections are a turnout game, and absent of a strong NDP campaign, I suspect these would-be NDP voters are much more likely to just not vote instead, especially since this kind of voter probably skews younger and less likely to turn out than, say, Forest Hill old money or Jewish voters along Bathurst. Neither of whom are good demos for the NDP.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The NDP aren't even trying in St. Paul's? Ugh.

I should be clear, I don't actually know that they're "not trying" in St. Paul's, so I'm not suggesting that. But I think it's a very safe guess that the NDP aren't serious contenders in this byelection, and the NDP's byelection strategy this parliament seems to be to only contest seats they have a realistic shot of winning. So I feel very confident in saying the NDP probably aren't going to be serious contenders here.

If they decide to really fight it though (maybe try to piggyback off of Jill Andrew's provincial incumbency), that would make things interesting, and probably help the CPC by not allowing the Liberals to be the ABC vote bank.

It depends on what one's barometer of "aren't serious contenders" is (i.e. is the recent mid-to-high-teens norm a reflection of seriousness or unseriousness?).  And remember that the Ford majorities didn't prevent the provincial Tories from finishing 3rd twice in a row.  So don't discount the likelihood of the NDP being a joint ABC *and* ABL vote bank, an alternative for those deep-Laurentian types who want to punish Justin but can't stomach voting for PP (though unlike in '18, the NDP aren't broadly benefiting from overtaking the Libs in the polls).

By "serious contender", I simply mean whether or not they have a serious chance of actually winning the seat. Which I think makes sense in this context, because the NDP doesn't seem to be putting quite as much effort into byelections where they don't really have a chance of flipping it. Not that there's anything wrong with that given the NDP's current polling and perennially cash-strapped bank account. Elmwood-Transcona is up soon, holding that seat merits more resources than flexing their muscles in St. Paul's.

You might have a point though that the NDP could serve as both ABC and ABL in this riding, given the demographics. Liberals numbers are abysmal and only seem to get lower, but Tories likely have a pretty hard ceiling here, and we've seen how the combination of these two factors can boost the NDP, e.g. how the ONDP unexpectedly flipped this very riding in 2018 and held it in 2022. But byelections are a turnout game, and absent of a strong NDP campaign, I suspect these would-be NDP voters are much more likely to just not vote instead, especially since this kind of voter probably skews younger and less likely to turn out than, say, Forest Hill old money or Jewish voters along Bathurst. Neither of whom are good demos for the NDP.

Based on our polling, the NDP actually had the best turnout game in the 2022 provincial election (not necessarily in St. Paul's, but province wide). People who sat the election out were much more likely to be Liberals or Tories.

Oh I don't doubt it, considering how good they were at holding onto incumbent seats (with a few very notable exceptions). But the federal NDP's turnout game in Ontario hasn't proven as good as ONDP's. Maybe it's because the LPC's ground game in Ontario has been so exceptionally strong for the past three elections, and it remains to be seen if this is still the case. Wouldn't be surprised if the LPC turnout machine has taken a massive hit over the past year or so.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

One of the talking points about St. Paul's is "even Ignatieff held it, and Trudeau's not doing as poorly as Ignatieff", which is true overall, but the LPC's toplines are being buoyed by Quebec right now, where Trudeau performs much better than Ignatieff ever did. I compared the current 338Canada polling averages to 2011 results (approximated for Atlantic Canada and Prairies) to see how far we are from Iggy territory:

Region               2011 result                Current 338 average
ATL                    30%                          33%
QC                     14%                          27%
ON                     25%                          29%
PR                      13%                          19%
AB                      9%                            12%
BC                      13%                          18%

So not quite as bad, generally doing slightly better than 2011 in every region, and significantly better in Quebec. 4pts better in Ontario than 2011.

Considering St. Paul's has probably shifted left since 2011, it still voted LPC in 2011, and Trudeau's 4 points higher than Iggy's results in Ontario right now, this would indicate that the Liberals should still be able to hold it. Turnout is the wildcard, as is NDP support, which has improved relative to the national and provincial average in this riding, and the fact that this byelection follows the resignation of an MP who represented the seat for 27 years. Speaking of 338Canada, they currently project 39% LPC 34% CPC in this seat.

So while still unlikely, Liberals losing this byelection wouldn't be that crazy. The LPC may not be looking at an Ignatieff-style performance of 30-odd seats, but that's because they can still very easily win 20-odd seats in Quebec alone. But in English Canada, things are looking grim enough that with enough money and effort, Tories could conceivably put TSP in play.