Trump is pretty much stuck at the margins he won in 2020, suggesting he's not expanding his coalition at all.
The question is if Biden can consolidate a big enough number of West, Stein, and even RFK voters to overtake trump.
Even if Trump gets the same percentage as last time, there's plenty of evidence (basically all polling) that he will be drawing more support from non-White voters and less from college-educated Whites. It's not as if Trump's coalition is static, even if it's not that different in size.
