ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[GeorgiaModerate]

No serious person believes Hawley is DOA, but I do think Heitkamp is more likely to be reelected than Gardner.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Roy Moore, and anyone's support or nonsupport of him, has nothing to do with the ND Senate race.  How about taking that discussion elsewhere instead of derailing this thread with it?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reading how many democrats on here think the SC is not an issue at all gladdens my heart and gives me optimism for the senate races this fall.

It is a huge issue for people on the right and is probably the number one reason Hillary is taking long walks in the woods instead of sitting in the Oval Office.

there are still 4 lefty justices who will absolutely ignore the clear reading of what the constitution says to advance their agenda.

As others have said HH is in a real tight spot. Her only option is to vote to confirm Kavanaugh. If she doesn't she is done. Voting  for him gives her a chance. I'll yield to those who are more well versed in Montana politics than I am  to say what her chances are but candidates and campaigns matter. It gives her a shot. I don't know how it will end but it should be a good race that I'll be watching all the way to November.

If you think Heitkamp is from Montana, I'd say that probably everyone here knows more about it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reading how many democrats on here think the SC is not an issue at all gladdens my heart and gives me optimism for the senate races this fall.

It is a huge issue for people on the right and is probably the number one reason Hillary is taking long walks in the woods instead of sitting in the Oval Office.

there are still 4 lefty justices who will absolutely ignore the clear reading of what the constitution says to advance their agenda.

As others have said HH is in a real tight spot. Her only option is to vote to confirm Kavanaugh. If she doesn't she is done. Voting  for him gives her a chance. I'll yield to those who are more well versed in Montana politics than I am  to say what her chances are but candidates and campaigns matter. It gives her a shot. I don't know how it will end but it should be a good race that I'll be watching all the way to November.

If you think Heitkamp is from Montana, I'd say that probably everyone here knows more about it.

See post 72

Yep, I just missed your correction.  Comment withdrawn with apologies.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apparently Heitkamp's internals show her behind as well. She's probably going to be triaged soon.

Citation needed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When I read "Heidi Heitkamp", it always reminds me of the "Nighty Nitecaps" theme song from the old Herb Jepko Nitecaps radio show (one of the earliest late-night radio call-in shows, broadcast on a number of clear-channel AM stations). 

http://www.nitecaps.net/Audio/The%20Official%20Nitecap%20Song.MP3

[GeorgiaModerate]

If someone is working on Heitkamp's campaign, please make an ad like this:

_____________________________________________________________

Female voice:

Kevin Cramer don't think that attempted rape is a crime because "they were drunk and nothing evidently happened".

Tell Kevin Cramer that attempted rape is rape.

_____________________________________________________________

Just hammer those two lines for the rest of the election.

Yeah I wouldn't even reference this specifically in regards to Kavanaug, but issues of sexual assault in general.

If she votes YEA on Kavanaugh, though, she loses the moral ground to attack Cramer on this issue.

Exactly, which is why she has to vote NO.

The accusations against Kavanaugh give the red-state Democrats all the cover they need to vote no.  If he even gets to a vote, which I think is less than an even bet at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This means she’ll probably lose reelection and she knows that. Doing the right thing over winning an election. Respect.

[GeorgiaModerate]

She's still going to win.

I wish but it looks bad....

Looked bad in 2012 too. Ultimately, ND is a difficult state to poll and analyze. We just don't have enough evidence to prove this is anything but a toss up.

I think it requires very rose-colored glasses to consider it a tossup at this point.  Certainly Heitkamp isn't out of it and could still win, but all the (admittedly limited) evidence points to Cramer being ahead.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How is Atlas going to react when a poll comes out showing Heitkamp ahead by 2

"I never doubted her."

"The queen of retail politics."

"North Dakota is a hard state to poll."

"RED WAVE INCOMING!!!" (you know who you are)

[GeorgiaModerate]

It would certainly be something if Heitkamp pulled this out.

There's usually at least one big surprise in any election, and this is my current choice as the most likely one in the Senate.